Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

The Department of Maori Affairs housing programme, 1935-1967 : a thesis presented in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in history at Massey University

The Department of Maori Affairs housing programme was established in the 1930s through the Maori Housing Act (1935) and the Maori Housing Amendment Act (1938). A special housing programme was required because a large proportion of the Maori population lived in 'deplorable' housing conditions, and it was'... impossible for the average Maori to finance a new home'1 1. J M McEwen, 'Urbanisation and the Multi-Racial Society', in R H Brookes and I H Kawharu (eds.), Administration in New Zealand's Multi-Racial Society (Wellington, 1967), p. 76. through lending institutions because they could provide neither security nor regular payments. The purposes of this study are twofold. First, to examine successive governments' Maori housing policies in the period 1935 to 1967, and discuss how these were implemented by the Department of Maori Affairs. Second, to assess their effectiveness as a provider of housing for the Maori population

Meningococcal serogroup C immunogenicity, antibody persistence and memory B-cells induced by the monovalent meningococcal serogroup C versus quadrivalent meningococcal serogroup ACWY conjugate booster vaccine : A randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Adolescents are considered the key transmitters of meningococci in the population. Meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) antibody levels wane rapidly after MenC conjugate vaccination in young children, leaving adolescents with low antibody levels. In this study, we compared MenC immune responses after booster vaccination in adolescence with either tetanus toxoid conjugated MenC (MenC-TT) or MenACWY (MenACWY-TT) vaccine, and aimed to establish an optimal age for this booster. METHODS: Healthy 10-, 12-, and 15-year-olds, who received a single dose of MenC-TT vaccine in early childhood, were randomized to receive MenC-TT or MenACWY-TT vaccine. MenC serum bactericidal antibody (rSBA) titers, MenC polysaccharide (PS) specific IgG, IgG1 and IgG2 and MenC-specific IgG and IgA memory B-cells were determined before, one month and one year after the booster. Non-inferiority was tested by comparing geometric mean titers (GMTs) between vaccinees at one year. RESULTS: Of 501 participants, 464 (92.6%) were included in the 'according to protocol' cohort analysis. At one month, all participants developed high MenC rSBA titers (>24,000 in all groups) and MenC-PS-specific IgG levels. Non-inferiority was not demonstrated one year after the booster with higher MenC GMTs after the monovalent vaccine, but 462/464 (99.6%) participants maintained protective MenC rSBA titers. IgG levels mainly consisted of IgG1, but similar levels of increase were observed for IgG1 and IgG2. Both vaccines induced a clear increase in the number of circulating MenC-PS specific IgG and IgA memory B-cells. Between one month and one year, the highest antibody decay rate was observed in the 10-year-olds. CONCLUSION: Both MenC-TT and MenACWY-TT vaccines induced robust protective MenC immune responses after the booster vaccination, although non-inferiority could not be demonstrated for the MenACWY-TT vaccine after one year. Our results underline the importance of optimal timing of a meningococcal booster vaccination to protect against MenC disease in the long-term

Sex-Related Differences in the Immune Response to Meningococcal Vaccinations During Adolescence.

BACKGROUND: Immune responses to pediatric vaccinations have been reported to differ according to sex. Such sex-differential responses may become more pronounced during adolescence due to hormonal differences. We investigated whether the vaccine response following primary vaccination against meningococcal serogroup A (MenA), MenW and MenY and booster vaccination against MenC differed between girls and boys using data from two clinical studies. METHODS: Children aged 10, 12, and 15 years, who had been primed with MenC vaccination between 14 months and 6 years of age, received a booster MenC vaccination or MenACWY vaccination. Polysaccharide-specific IgG concentrations and functional antibody titers [determined with the serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) assay] were measured at baseline, 1 month, 1 year, and 3 years (only MenC group) after vaccination. We calculated geometric mean concentrations and titers (GMC and GMT) ratios for girls vs. boys adjusted for age group. Additionally, we compared the proportion protected individuals between girls and boys at all timepoints. RESULTS: This study included 342 girls and 327 boys from two clinical trials. While MenAWY antibody levels did not differ consistently 1 month after vaccination, all GMC- and GMT-ratios were in favor of girls 1 year after vaccination [range: 1.31 (1.02–1.70) for MenA IgG to 1.54 (1.10–2.16) for MenW IgG]. Overall, MenC antibody levels were slightly higher in girls at all postvaccination timepoints (GMC- and GMT-ratios: 1.16/1.17 at 1 month, 1.16/1.22 at 1 year and 1.12/1.15 3 years postvaccination). Higher MenC antibody levels were observed in 12- and 15-year-old girls compared to boys of the same age, whereas 10-year-old boys and girls had similar antibody levels. The percentage of participants protected (SBA titer ≥ 8) was very high (95–100%) at all timepoints, and did not differ significantly between boys and girls. CONCLUSION: Antibody responses were higher in girls than in boys for all serogroups at most timepoints after primary MenAWY vaccination and booster MenC vaccination. The differences in average titers were however small and the percentage participants with protective titers was very high for both sexes

Meningococcal carriage in Dutch adolescents and young adults; a cross-sectional and longitudinal cohort study

Objectives: Current information on rates and dynamics of meningococcal carriage is essential for public health policy. This study aimed to determine meningococcal carriage prevalence, its risk factors and duration in the Netherlands, where meningococcal C vaccine coverage is >90%. Several methods to identify serogroups of meningococcal carriage isolates among adolescent and young adults were compared. Methods: Oropharyngeal swabs were collected from 1715 participants 13-23 years of age in 2013-2014; 300 were prospectively followed over 8 months. Cultured isolates were characterized by Ouchterlony, real-time (rt-) PCR or whole-genome sequencing (WGS). Direct swabs were assessed by rt-PCR. Questionnaires on environmental factors and behaviour were also obtained. Results: A meningococcal isolate was identified in 270/1715 (16%) participants by culture. Of MenB isolates identified by whole genome sequencing, 37/72 (51%) were correctly serogrouped by Ouchterlony, 46/51 (90%) by rt-PCR of cultured isolates, and 39/51 (76%) by rt-PCR directly on swabs. A sharp increase in carriage was observed before the age of 15 years. The age-related association disappeared after correction for smoking, level of education, frequent attendance to crowded social venues, kissing in the previous week and alcohol consumption. Three participants carried the same strain identified at three consecutive visits in an 8-month period. In these isolates, progressively acquired mutations were observed. Conclusions: Whole genome sequencing of culture isolates was the most sensitive method for serogroup identification. Based upon results of this study and risk of meningococcal disease, an adolescent meningococcal vaccination might include children before the age of 15 years to confer individual protection and potentially to establish herd protection. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Disease

Kinetics of meningococcal serogroup C specific functional antibody levels up to 15 years after a single immunization with a meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccine during adolescence

BACKGROUND: Adolescent vaccination is now considered the key factor to offer direct protection against meningococcal disease but also to reduce carriage and transmission and in this way establish herd protection. This study estimated age-dependent patterns in functional meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) antibody kinetics after primary MenC conjugate (MenCC) vaccination in adolescents. METHODS: Serum samples (n=1676) were drawn between 2006-2011 from individuals aged 9-18 years at time of primary MenCC vaccination in 2002. Functional antibody levels were measured with serum bactericidal assay using rabbit complement (SBA). RESULTS: SBA titers gradually declined with time. Up to nine years after primary vaccination SBA titers were estimated to be higher in individuals aged 13-18 years at priming compared to those aged 9-10 years at priming. Based on a linear mixed model the higher functional antibody level with age seem to be due to the achievement of higher peak levels upon vaccination, rather than lower rates of decline. It is estimated that 35-50% of the individuals who received a single primary MenCC vaccination at an age between 9-18 years in 2002 will still have sufficient protective antibody levels fifteen years later. CONCLUSION: Using a linear mixed model based on cohort data with a single dated serum sample per person we were able to estimate the level of protection against MenC up to 15 years after a single vaccination. The current study shows that analysis of antibody kinetics can be done using cross-sectional serology data, and is therefore relevant for future serosurveillance studies