694 research outputs found
Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene
Aims. We present a physically consistent reconstruction of the total solar
irradiance for the Holocene. Methods. We extend the SATIRE models to estimate
the evolution of the total (and partly spectral) solar irradiance over the
Holocene. The basic assumption is that the variations of the solar irradiance
are due to the evolution of the dark and bright magnetic features on the solar
surface. The evolution of the decadally averaged magnetic flux is computed from
decadal values of cosmogenic isotope concentrations recorded in natural
archives employing a series of physics-based models connecting the processes
from the modulation of the cosmic ray flux in the heliosphere to their record
in natural archives. We then compute the total solar irradiance (TSI) as a
linear combination of the jth and jth + 1 decadal values of the open magnetic
flux. Results. Reconstructions of the TSI over the Holocene, each valid for a
di_erent paleomagnetic time series, are presented. Our analysis suggests that
major sources of uncertainty in the TSI in this model are the heritage of the
uncertainty of the TSI since 1610 reconstructed from sunspot data and the
uncertainty of the evolution of the Earth's magnetic dipole moment. The
analysis of the distribution functions of the reconstructed irradiance for the
last 3000 years indicates that the estimates based on the virtual axial dipole
moment are significantly lower at earlier times than the reconstructions based
on the virtual dipole moment. Conclusions. We present the first physics-based
reconstruction of the total solar irradiance over the Holocene, which will be
of interest for studies of climate change over the last 11500 years. The
reconstruction indicates that the decadally averaged total solar irradiance
ranges over approximately 1.5 W/m2 from grand maxima to grand minima
A new model of cosmogenic production of radiocarbon 14C in the atmosphere
We present the results of full new calculation of radiocarbon 14C production
in the Earth atmosphere, using a numerical Monte-Carlo model. We provide, for
the first time, a tabulated 14C yield function for the energy of primary cosmic
ray particles ranging from 0.1 to 1000 GeV/nucleon. We have calculated the
global production rate of 14C, which is 1.64 and 1.88 atoms/cm2/s for the
modern time and for the pre-industrial epoch, respectively. This is close to
the values obtained from the carbon cycle reservoir inventory. We argue that
earlier models overestimated the global 14C production rate because of outdated
spectra of cosmic ray heavier nuclei. The mean contribution of solar energetic
particles to the global 14C is calculated as about 0.25% for the modern epoch.
Our model provides a new tool to calculate the 14C production in the Earth's
atmosphere, which can be applied, e.g., to reconstructions of solar activity in
the past.Comment: Published in EPSL, 337, 114, 201
Solar total and spectral irradiance reconstruction over the last 9000 years
Changes in solar irradiance and in its spectral distribution are among the
main natural drivers of the climate on Earth. However, irradiance measurements
are only available for less than four decades, while assessment of solar
influence on Earth requires much longer records. The aim of this work is to
provide the most up-to-date physics-based reconstruction of the solar total and
spectral irradiance (TSI/SSI) over the last nine millennia. The concentrations
of the cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be in natural archives have been converted
to decadally averaged sunspot numbers through a chain of physics-based models.
TSI and SSI are reconstructed with an updated SATIRE model. Reconstructions are
carried out for each isotope record separately, as well as for their composite.
We present the first ever SSI reconstruction over the last 9000 years from the
individual 14C and 10Be records as well as from their newest composite. The
reconstruction employs physics-based models to describe the involved processes
at each step of the procedure. Irradiance reconstructions based on two
different cosmogenic isotope records, those of 14C and 10Be, agree well with
each other in their long-term trends despite their different geochemical paths
in the atmosphere of Earth. Over the last 9000 years, the reconstructed secular
variability in TSI is of the order of 0.11%, or 1.5 W/m2. After the Maunder
minimum, the reconstruction from the cosmogenic isotopes is consistent with
that from the direct sunspot number observation. Furthermore, over the
nineteenth century, the agreement of irradiance reconstructions using isotope
records with the reconstruction from the sunspot number by Chatzistergos et al.
(2017) is better than that with the reconstruction from the WDC-SILSO series
(Clette et al. 2014), with a lower chi-square-value
Solar activity during the Holocene: the Hallstatt cycle and its consequence for grand minima and maxim
Cosmogenic isotopes provide the only quantitative proxy for analyzing the
long-term solar variability over a centennial timescale. While essential
progress has been achieved in both measurements and modeling of the cosmogenic
proxy, uncertainties still remain in the determination of the geomagnetic
dipole moment evolution. Here we improve the reconstruction of solar activity
over the past nine millennia using a multi-proxy approach. We used records of
the 14C and 10Be cosmogenic isotopes, current numerical models of the isotope
production and transport in Earth's atmosphere, and available geomagnetic field
reconstructions, including a new reconstruction relying on an updated
archeo-/paleointensity database. The obtained series were analyzed using the
singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method to study the millennial-scale trends. A
new reconstruction of the geomagnetic dipole field moment, GMAG.9k, is built
for the last nine millennia. New reconstructions of solar activity covering the
last nine millennia, quantified in sunspot numbers, are presented and analyzed.
A conservative list of grand minima and maxima is provided. The primary
components of the reconstructed solar activity, as determined using the SSA
method, are different for the series based on 14C and 10Be. These primary
components can only be ascribed to long-term changes in the terrestrial system
and not to the Sun. They have been removed from the reconstructed series. In
contrast, the secondary SSA components of the reconstructed solar activity are
found to be dominated by a common ~2400-yr quasi-periodicity, the so-called
Hallstatt cycle, in both the 14C and 10Be based series. This Hallstatt cycle
thus appears to be related to solar activity. Finally, we show that the grand
minima and maxima occurred intermittently over the studied period, with
clustering near highs and lows of the Hallstatt cycle, respectively.Comment: In press in Astronomy & Astrophysics, doi:
10.1051/0004-6361/20152729
Regional cosmic ray induced ionization and geomagnetic field changes
Cosmic ray induced ionization (CRII) is an important factor of outer space influences on atmospheric properties. Variations of CRII are caused by two different processes – solar activity variations, which modulate the cosmic ray flux in interplanetary space, and changes of the geomagnetic field, which affects the cosmic ray access to Earth. Migration of the geomagnetic dipole axis may greatly alter CRII in some regions on a time scale of centuries and longer. Here we present a study of CRII regional effects of the geomagnetic field changes during the last millennium for two regions: Europe and the Far East. We show that regional effects of the migration of the geomagnetic dipole axis may overcome global changes due to solar activity variations
Grand minima and maxima of solar activity: New observational constraints
Using a reconstruction of sunspot numbers stretching over multiple millennia,
we analyze the statistics of the occurrence of grand minima and maxima and set
new observational constraints on long-term solar and stellar dynamo models.
We present an updated reconstruction of sunspot number over multiple
millennia, from C data by means of a physics-based model, using an
updated model of the evolution of the solar open magnetic flux. A list of grand
minima and maxima of solar activity is presented for the Holocene (since 9500
BC) and the statistics of both the length of individual events as well as the
waiting time between them are analyzed.
The occurrence of grand minima/maxima is driven not by long-term cyclic
variability, but by a stochastic/chaotic process. The waiting time distribution
of the occurrence of grand minima/maxima deviates from an exponential
distribution, implying that these events tend to cluster together with long
event-free periods between the clusters. Two different types of grand minima
are observed: short (30--90 years) minima of Maunder type and long (110
years) minima of Sp\"orer type, implying that a deterministic behaviour of the
dynamo during a grand minimum defines its length. The duration of grand maxima
follows an exponential distribution, suggesting that the duration of a grand
maximum is determined by a random process.
These results set new observational constraints upon the long-term behaviour
of the solar dynamo.Comment: 10 Figure
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