On the long-term stability of Gulf Stream transport based on 20 years of direct measurements

In contrast to recent claims of a Gulf Stream slowdown, two decades of directly measured velocity across the current show no evidence of a decrease. Using a well‐constrained definition of Gulf Stream width, the linear least square fit yields a mean surface layer transport of 1.35 × 105 m2 s−1 with a 0.13% negative trend per year. Assuming geostrophy, this corresponds to a mean cross‐stream sea level difference of 1.17 m, with sea level decreasing 0.03 m over the 20 year period. This is not significant at the 95% confidence level, and it is a factor of 2–4 less than that alleged from accelerated sea level rise along the U.S. Coast north of Cape Hatteras. Part of the disparity can be traced to the spatial complexity of altimetric sea level trends over the same period

A dynamically based method for estimating the Atlantic overturning circulation at 26° N from satellite altimetry

The large-scale system of ocean currents that transport warm surface (1000 m) waters northward and return cooler waters southward is known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Variations in the AMOC have significant repercussions for the climate system, hence there is a need for long term monitoring of AMOC fluctuations. Currently the longest record of continuous directly measured AMOC changes is from the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS programme, initiated in 2004. The RAPID programme, and other mooring programmes, have revolutionised our understanding of large-scale circulation, however, by design they are constrained to measurements at a single latitude. High global coverage of surface ocean data from satellite altimetry is available since the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon satellite in 1992 and has been shown to provide reliable estimates of surface ocean transports on interannual time scales. Here we show that a direct calculation of ocean circulation from satellite altimetry compares well with transport estimates from the 26° N RAPID array on low frequency (18-month) time scales for the upper mid-ocean transport (UMO; r = 0.75), the Gulf Stream transport through the Florida Straits (r = 0.70), and the AMOC (r = 0.83). The vertical structure of the circulation is also investigated, and it is found that the first baroclinic mode accounts for 83 % of the interior geostrophic variability, while remaining variability is explained by the barotropic mode. Finally, the UMO and the AMOC are estimated from historical altimetry data (1993 to 2018) using a dynamically based method that incorporates the vertical structure of the flow. The effective implementation of satellite-based method for monitoring the AMOC at 26° N lays down the starting point for monitoring large-scale circulation at all latitudes

A dynamically based method for estimating the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26° N from satellite altimetry

The large-scale system of ocean currents that transport warm waters in the upper 1000 m northward and return deeper cooler waters southward is known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Variations in the AMOC have significant repercussions for the climate system; hence, there is a need for long-term monitoring of AMOC fluctuations. Currently the longest record of continuous directly measured AMOC changes is from the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS programme, initiated in 2004. The RAPID programme and other mooring programmes have revolutionised our understanding of large-scale circulation; however, by design they are constrained to measurements at a single latitude and cannot tell us anything pre-2004. Nearly global coverage of surface ocean data from satellite altimetry has been available since the launch of the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite in 1992 and has been shown to provide reliable estimates of surface ocean transports on interannual timescales including previous studies that have investigated empirical correlations between sea surface height variability and the overturning circulation. Here we show a direct calculation of ocean circulation from satellite altimetry of the upper mid-ocean transport (UMO), the Gulf Stream transport through the Florida Straits (GS), and the AMOC using a dynamically based method that combines geostrophy with a time mean of the vertical structure of the flow from the 26∘ N RAPID moorings. The satellite-based transport captures 56 %, 49 %, and 69 % of the UMO, GS, and AMOC transport variability, respectively, from the 26∘ N RAPID array on interannual (18-month) timescales. Further investigation into the vertical structure of the horizontal transport shows that the first baroclinic mode accounts for 83 % of the interior geostrophic variability, and the combined barotropic and first baroclinic mode representation of dynamic height accounts for 98 % of the variability. Finally, the methods developed here are used to reconstruct the UMO and the AMOC for the time period pre-dating RAPID, 1993 to 2003. The effective implementation of satellite-based method for monitoring the AMOC at 26∘ N lays down the starting point for monitoring large-scale circulation at all latitudes

The railroad switch effect of seasonally reversing currents on the Bay of Bengal high salinity core

The Southwest Monsoon Current (SMC) flows eastward from the Arabian Sea into the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during summer, advecting a core of high salinity water. This high salinity core has been linked with Arabian Sea High Salinity Water that is presumed to enter the BoB directly from the Arabian Sea via the SMC. Here we show that the high salinity core originates primarily from the western equatorial Indian Ocean, reaching the BoB via the Somali Current, the Equatorial Undercurrent and the SMC. Years with anomalously saline high salinity cores are linked with the East Africa Coastal Current and the Somali Current winter convergence, and an anomalously strong Equatorial Undercurrent. Seasonal reversals that occur at the Somali Current and SMC junctions act as 'railroad switches' diverting water masses to different basins in the northern Indian Ocean. Interannual fluctuations of the Equatorial Undercurrent are linked to wind stress and El Nino

Observed change and the extent of coherence in the Gulf Stream system

By transporting warm and salty water poleward, the Gulf Stream system maintains a mild climate in northwestern Europe while also facilitating the dense water formation that feeds the deep ocean. The sensitivity of North Atlantic circulation to future greenhouse gas emissions seen in climate models has prompted an increasing effort to monitor the various ocean circulation components in recent decades. Here, we synthesize available ocean transport measurements from several observational programs in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, as well as an ocean state estimate (ECCOv4-r4), for an enhanced understanding of the Gulf Stream and its poleward extensions as an interconnected circulation system. We see limited coherent variability between the records on interannual timescales, highlighting the local oceanic response to atmospheric circulation patterns and variable recirculation timescales within the gyres. On decadal timescales, we find a weakening subtropical circulation between the mid-2000s and mid-2010s, while the inflow and circulation in the Nordic Seas remained stable. Differing decadal trends in the subtropics, subpolar North Atlantic, and Nordic Seas warrant caution in using observational records at a single latitude to infer large-scale circulation change.</p

Kinetic modelling of competition and depletion of shared miRNAs by competing endogenous RNAs

Non-conding RNAs play a key role in the post-transcriptional regulation of mRNA translation and turnover in eukaryotes. miRNAs, in particular, interact with their target RNAs through protein-mediated, sequence-specific binding, giving rise to extended and highly heterogeneous miRNA-RNA interaction networks. Within such networks, competition to bind miRNAs can generate an effective positive coupling between their targets. Competing endogenous RNAs (ceRNAs) can in turn regulate each other through miRNA-mediated crosstalk. Albeit potentially weak, ceRNA interactions can occur both dynamically, affecting e.g. the regulatory clock, and at stationarity, in which case ceRNA networks as a whole can be implicated in the composition of the cell's proteome. Many features of ceRNA interactions, including the conditions under which they become significant, can be unraveled by mathematical and in silico models. We review the understanding of the ceRNA effect obtained within such frameworks, focusing on the methods employed to quantify it, its role in the processing of gene expression noise, and how network topology can determine its reach.Comment: review article, 29 pages, 7 figure

Pending recovery in the strength of the meridional overturning circulation at 26° N

The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26∘ N has now been continuously measured by the RAPID array over the period April 2004–September 2018. This record provides unique insight into the variability of the large-scale ocean circulation, previously only measured by sporadic snapshots of basin-wide transport from hydrographic sections. The continuous measurements have unveiled striking variability on timescales of days to a decade, driven largely by wind forcing, contrasting with previous expectations about a slowly varying buoyancy-forced large-scale ocean circulation. However, these measurements were primarily observed during a warm state of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) which has been steadily declining since a peak in 2008–2010. In 2013–2015, a period of strong buoyancy forcing by the atmosphere drove intense water-mass transformation in the subpolar North Atlantic and provides a unique opportunity to investigate the response of the large-scale ocean circulation to buoyancy forcing. Modelling studies suggest that the AMOC in the subtropics responds to such events with an increase in overturning transport, after a lag of 3–9 years. At 45∘ N, observations suggest that the AMOC may already be increasing. Examining 26∘ N, we find that the AMOC is no longer weakening, though the recent transport is not above the long-term mean. Extending the record backwards in time at 26∘ N with ocean reanalysis from GloSea5, the transport fluctuations at 26∘ N are consistent with a 0- to 2-year lag from those at 45∘ N, albeit with lower magnitude. Given the short span of time and anticipated delays in the signal from the subpolar to subtropical gyres, it is not yet possible to determine whether the subtropical AMOC strength is recovering nor how the AMOC at 26∘ N responds to intense buoyancy forcing

Impact of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the decadal variability of the Gulf Stream path and regional chlorophyll and nutrient concentrations

In this study, we show that the underlying physical driver for the decadal variability in the Gulf Stream (GS) path and the regional biogeochemical cycling is linked to the low frequency variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). There is a significant anticorrelation between AMOC variations and the meridional shifts of the GS path at decadal time scale in both observations and two Earth system models (ESMs). The chlorophyll and nutrient concentrations in the GS region are found significantly correlated with the AMOC fingerprint and anticorrelated with the GS path at decadal time scale through coherent isopycnal changes in the GS front in the ESMs. Our results illustrate how changes in the large-scale ocean circulation, such as AMOC, are teleconnected with regional decadal physical and biogeochemical variations near the North American east coast. Such linkages are useful for predicting future physical and biogeochemical variations in this region

Spatial and temporal variability of solar penetration depths in the Bay of Bengal and its impact on SST during the summer monsoon

Chlorophyll has long been known to influence air–sea gas exchange and CO2 drawdown. But chlorophyll also influences regional climate through its effect on solar radiation absorption and thus sea surface temperature (SST). In the Bay of Bengal, the effect of chlorophyll on SST has been demonstrated to have a significant impact on the Indian summer (southwest) monsoon. However, little is known about the drivers and impacts of chlorophyll variability in the Bay of Bengal during the southwest monsoon. Here we use observations of downwelling irradiance measured by an ocean glider and three profiling floats to determine the spatial and temporal variability of solar absorption across the southern Bay of Bengal during the 2016 summer monsoon. A two-band exponential solar absorption scheme is fitted to vertical profiles of photosynthetically active radiation to determine the effective scale depth of blue light. Scale depths of blue light are found to vary from 12 m during the highest (0.3–0.5 mg m−3) mixed-layer chlorophyll concentrations to over 25 m when the mixed-layer chlorophyll concentrations are below 0.1 mg m−3. The Southwest Monsoon Current and coastal regions of the Bay of Bengal are observed to have higher mixed-layer chlorophyll concentrations and shallower solar penetration depths than other regions of the southern Bay of Bengal. Substantial sub-daily variability in solar radiation absorption is observed, which highlights the importance of near-surface ocean processes in modulating mixed-layer chlorophyll. Simulations using a one-dimensional K-profile parameterization ocean mixed-layer model with observed surface forcing from July 2016 show that a 0.3 mg m−3 increase in chlorophyll concentration increases sea surface temperature by 0.35 ∘C in 1 month, with SST differences growing rapidly during calm and sunny conditions. This has the potential to influence monsoon rainfall around the Bay of Bengal and its intraseasonal variability

The Irminger Gyre as a key driver of the subpolar North Atlantic overturning

The lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is the equatorward flow of dense waters formed through the cooling and freshening of the poleward-flowing upper limb. In the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA), upper limb variability is primarily set by the North Atlantic Current, whereas lower limb variability is less well understood. Using observations from a SPNA mooring array, we show that variability of the AMOC's lower limb is connected to poleward flow in the interior Irminger Sea. We identify this poleward flow as the northward branch of the Irminger Gyre (IG), accounting for 55% of the AMOC's lower limb variability. Over 2014–2018, wind stress curl fluctuations over the Labrador and Irminger Seas drive this IG and AMOC variability. On longer (>annual) timescales, however, an increasing trend in the thickness of intermediate water, from 2014 to 2020, within the Irminger Sea coincides with a decreasing trend in IG strength