Assimilation de données d'humidité des sols pour la prévision de crues : comparaison d'un modèle pluie-débit conceptuel et d'un modèle intégrant une interface sol-végétation-atmosphère

Le but de cet article est de présenter une méthodologie de mise à jour des paramètres de modèles pluie-débit en période de crue. Elle a été mise au point afin d'améliorer un des aspects de la gestion des réservoirs dans un contexte opérationnel de protection contre les crues: la réduction des incertitudes sur la prévision des débits. L'originalité de la méthode proposée réside dans le fait que l'on utilise non seulement une information sur les débits mais aussi une information sur l'humidité du sol. L'objectif de l'étude est d'évaluer l'intérêt de l'introduction de cette information supplémentaire. Pour cela, les données d'humidité du sol sont introduites au sein du modèle par l'intermédiaire d'une relation de passage établie entre l'humidité mesurée in situ et l'humidité calculée implicitement ou explicitement par les modèles. Cette méthodologie a été testée dans le cadre du projet européen AIMWATER sur quatre sous-bassins de la Seine en amont de Paris (France). Deux modèles pluie-débit sont utilisés dans cette étude, un modèle conceptuel semi-emprique et un modèle conceptuel couplé à un schéma de surface simulant une interface sol-végétation-atmosphère et permettant de calculer l'évolution de l'humidité du sol à différentes profondeurs. Cette approche comparative étudie l'intérêt d'un tel modèle couplé par rapport au modèle conceptuel semi-empirique sans représentation explicite des phénomènes se produisant à l'interface sol-végétation-atmosphère.Improving the accuracy of rainfall-runoff models and in particular their performances in flood prediction is a key point of continental hydrology. Methods have been developed to improve flood prediction in hydrology based on a better compliance of the model with current observations prior to its use in forecasting mode. This operation has been termed updating in hydrology and assimilation in meteorology. The fundamental idea is that if model predictions diverge from observations at a given time, there is little chance that future estimations will approach correct values. The improvement then comes from a correction of the trajectory of the model based on observations during the period preceding the day when a prediction into the immediate or long-term future is desired. This can be dealt with by a correction of model parameters, which is usually called "parameter updating".The inability of rainfall-runoff models to produce correct streamflow values generally translates into parameter uncertainty. Parameter calibration is the means used by a model structure to adjust to a given set of data. Therefore, a parameter updating methodology seems to be a natural way to amend errors in streamflow values. In this paper, a specific methodology of parameter updating is presented. The main feature of this method is that it does not carry out updating by reference only to recent streamflow observations, as classic procedures do, but also to soil moisture measurements, which can be retrieved daily from TDR probes. Indeed, it appears that the integration of soil moisture data allows better control of the evolution of the model and improves its performances, in particular in terms of forecasting.The aim of the research was to assess the usefulness of this additional soil moisture information. To this end, an approach has been suggested that gradually introduces additional information thanks to a constraint relationship between observed and modelled soil moisture. In fact, soil moisture can be calculated implicitly or explicitly by the model when extracting step-by-step the values of the model's store contents. This methodology was put forward for use in the European AIMWATER project on four catchments within the Seine River basin upstream of Paris (France). The other issue addressed in this paper was whether or not it is necessary to use a model that simulates explicitly the evolution of soil moisture at different depths. One can argue that if the model employed does not feature a store that can be identified closely to the observed soil moisture, there would be no possibility of benefiting from such measurements. On the other hand, it can be argued that if soil moisture is a model output, all the information drawn from soil moisture observations will be directed at improving this specific output at the expense of improving streamflow values. To answer this issue, two models were tested. The first model, GR4j, has no explicit counterpart for soil moisture measurements. The second one, GRHum, has been especially developed to introduce a two-layer soil reservoir that simulates the surface and sub-surface soil moisture.Since the aim of the present research was to analyse different ways of accounting for soil moisture, and to identify the one that offers the best prospects, several tests were carried out, using different relationships between observed and modelled soil moisture. Indeed, TDR probes give point measurements of soil moisture at several depths and several store contents can be taken into account in a constraint relationship.First, for both GR4j and GRHum models, tests showed that performances for flood forecasting are significantly improved when assimilating in situ measurements of soil moisture at a daily time-step, especially for the basins where poor simulations are obtained. It is also noteworthy that performances are very dependent on the items taken into account in a constraint relationship.Secondly, the GRHum model did not appear to be more efficient than the GR4j model when assimilating both streamflow and soil moisture data. However, the GRHum model gave the best results when assimilating only streamflow data, and superficial soil moisture seemed to fit the GRHum better than the GR4j model.Finally, although the tests required perfect foreknowledge of rainfall, the results of the research are encouraging from an operational point of view. Another interesting perspective is provided by the Earth Observation data. Indeed, previous studies have shown that soil moisture can be derived from EO data using, for example, microwave spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images (QUESNEY et al., 2000). This type of catchment-scale data could be more relevant than a local measure given by TDR probes (PAUWELS et al., 2002)

Fish Consumption and Ischemic stroke in Southern Sweden

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The relationship between fish intake and stroke incidence has been inconsistent in previous Swedish studies. Here, we report the risk of stroke and fish intake in a cohort from southern Sweden.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>Data were obtained from an already available population based case-control study where the cases were defined as incident first-time ischemic stroke patients. Complete data on all relevant variables were obtained for 2722 controls and 2469 cases. The data were analyzed with logistic regression analysis. Stroke risk decreased with fat fish intake ([greater than or equal to] 1/week versus <1/month) in both men and women; adjusted pooled Odds Ratio (OR) 0.69, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.54-0.89. However, stroke risk for women increased with intake of lean fish; adjusted OR 1.63 (95% CI: 1.17-2.28), whereas there was no association with men's lean fish intake; adjusted OR 0.97(95% CI: 0.73-1.27). Fish intake was self-reported retrospectively, yielding uncertain exposure assessment and potential recall bias. The findings regarding lean fish could be explained by recall bias if an individual's inclination to report lean fish consumption depended on both disease status and sex. The fact that the association between fat fish intake and stroke was similar in men and women does not support such a differential in recall.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results suggest fat fish intake to decrease ischemic stroke risk and lean fish intake to increase women's stroke risk. The inconsistent relationship between fish intake and stroke risk reported in previous studies is further stressed by the results of this study.</p

MENA Confers Resistance to Paclitaxel in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

Taxane therapy remains the standard of care for triple-negative breast cancer. However, high frequencies of recurrence and progression in treated patients indicate that metastatic breast cancer cells can acquire resistance to this drug. The actin regulatory protein MENA and particularly its invasive isoform, MENAINV , are established drivers of metastasis. MENAINV expression is significantly correlated with metastasis and poor outcome in human patients with breast cancer. We investigated whether MENA isoforms might play a role in driving resistance to chemotherapeutics. We find that both MENA and MENAINV confer resistance to the taxane paclitaxel, but not to the widely used DNA-damaging agents doxorubicin or cisplatin. Furthermore, paclitaxel treatment does not attenuate growth of MENAINV -driven metastatic lesions. Mechanistically, MENA isoform expression alters the ratio of dynamic and stable microtubule populations in paclitaxel-treated cells. MENA expression also increases MAPK signaling in response to paclitaxel treatment. Decreasing ERK phosphorylation by cotreatment with MEK inhibitor restored paclitaxel sensitivity by driving microtubule stabilization in MENA isoform-expressing cells. Our results reveal a novel mechanism of taxane resistance in highly metastatic breast cancer cells and identify a combination therapy to overcome such resistance

Rôle du poteyage et de la température initiale du moule sur les sollicitations thermomécaniques des moules permanents de fonderie

International audienceIn the casting industry metal moulds or dies are used more and more. The reason is that they allow a fa st cooling rate o f the solidifying part, hence allowing higher productivity, finer microstructure and higher mechanical properties. In most cases the die is made out o f steel and reacts with the liquid cast metal. The usual solution is to cover the moulding surface with a coating or spray. Depending on the casting technology, the coating is sprayed every cycle or every 8 to 10 hours o f production. A second but nonetheless important effect o f the coa ting is its thermal effect. The coating acts as a thermal barrier and protects the die against thermal shocks. The topic o f the present paper is to assess this function o f the coating. During a casting cycle, the coated die and the molten metal are briefly in contact during the very first moments and then an air gap may form and separate them apart. During the first stage, an intense heat is tran sferred from the m elt to the die. H eat flu x den sities fro m 0.5 MW/m2 up to 10 MW/m2 have been reported in literature. The intense heat transfer gene rates high temperature heterogeneity into the die. The corresponding dilatation heterogeneity is responsible fo r internal stresses into the die, so called thermal stresses. They are usually compressive stresses on the hot surface. It will be shown in this paper that the moulding surface o f the die suffers the most stress. The stresses can be high enough to cause yielding o f the steel at high temperature. Because the steels in use fo r dies have a high yield stress at high tempera ture the plastic deformation remains small. However it is a cyclic plasticity because the same phenomenon occurs at every casting cycle. We believe that this plasticity in warm conditions is responsible fo r residual tensile stresses in cold conditions (i.e. nearly isothermal conditions). This phenomenon is rather classical in most thermal stresses problems [ 1, 2], A t the lifetime scale o f the die, the moulding surface is cyclically stressed in traction at low temperatures and compression at high temperatures leading to a fatal cracking. In a first approach we suggest measuring temperatures within the die during a casting cycle. From this measurement it is possible to estim ate the thermal stresses, assuming that the stresses remain below or at least close to the yield stress o f the die materials. This assumption is usually fair. Indeed, if the plastic deformation were large during every cycle, the die would never last much longer than a few thousands cycles. If this ever occurred, it would not be a great advantage fo r the casting factory nor its client. Other materials should be sought as a first priority. From the estimation o f thermal stresses, it would be delicate to foresee the mecha nical behaviour o f the materials o f the die in fatigue condition. Some materials tend to harden (copper alloys, f cc materials) while others tend to soften (heat treated martensite steels [4])[5], Instead o f trying to guess the behaviour, the method that we suggest is to perform a thermo mechanical fatigue test (TMF). This TMF test consists o f applying measured temperature and evaluated strain/stresses history to a mechanical testing sample [6], The most relevant tempe rature and stress history is, o f course, the one corresponding to the moulding surface o f the die. This test will provide information on the materials behaviour and some relevant data about the lifetime o f the die. This paper provides an example o f this method. The thermal data was obtained from a gravity casting experiment [3] that is described in the first part. The second part deals with the evaluation o f the thermal stresses and the third part shows some results from the TMF testing. Throughout the paper the influence o f the coating nature and o f the die initial temperature is examined.Cet article traite de la fatigue thermique subie par les outillages de mise en forme. Pour appréhender le problème d’endommagement des outillages, il est nécessaire de bien connaître les conditions de transfert de chaleur et d’évaluer les contraintes thermo-mécaniques subies par l’outillage. La prévision de la durée de vie et l’évolution de la plasticité cyclique qui précède la fissuration est difficile car certains matériaux ont tendance à s’écrouir alors que d’autres ont tendance à s’adoucir. Nous proposons le recours à des expériences de fatigue thermo-mécanique (TMF) pour appréhender cette prévision. Par un exemple emblématique, nous montrons comment il est possible d’aborder le problème. Le cas considéré est la fonderie gravité en coquille d’acier. Nous mettons en évidence l’influence de paramètres process sur le transfert de chaleur et sur les contraintes thermo-mécaniques subies par le moule pendant un cycle de coulée. Les paramètres retenus sont la température initiale du moule et la nature du poteyage. Des essais de fatigue thermo-mécanique ont été menés et les résultats sur 1000 cycles sont exposés

Glutamine synthetase activity fuels nucleotide biosynthesis and supports growth of glutamine-restriced glioblastoma

L-Glutamine (Gln) functions physiologically to balance the carbon and nitrogen requirements of tissues. It has been proposed that in cancer cells undergoing aerobic glycolysis, accelerated anabolism is sustained by Gln-derived carbons, which replenish the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle (anaplerosis). However, it is shown here that in glioblastoma (GBM) cells, almost half of the Gln-derived glutamate (Glu) is secreted and does not enter the TCA cycle, and that inhibiting glutaminolysis does not affect cell proliferation. Moreover, Gln-starved cells are not rescued by TCA cycle replenishment. Instead, the conversion of Glu to Gln by glutamine synthetase (GS; cataplerosis) confers Gln prototrophy, and fuels de novo purine biosynthesis. In both orthotopic GBM models and in patients, (13)C-glucose tracing showed that GS produces Gln from TCA-cycle-derived carbons. Finally, the Gln required for the growth of GBM tumours is contributed only marginally by the circulation, and is mainly either autonomously synthesized by GS-positive glioma cells, or supplied by astrocytes

Activation of Type 1 Cannabinoid Receptor (CB1R) promotes neurogenesis in murine subventricular zone cell cultures

The endocannabinoid system has been implicated in the modulation of adult neurogenesis. Here, we describe the effect of type 1 cannabinoid receptor (CB1R) activation on self-renewal, proliferation and neuronal differentiation in mouse neonatal subventricular zone (SVZ) stem/progenitor cell cultures. Expression of CB1R was detected in SVZ-derived immature cells (Nestin-positive), neurons and astrocytes. Stimulation of the CB1R by (R)-(+)-Methanandamide (R-m-AEA) increased self-renewal of SVZ cells, as assessed by counting the number of secondary neurospheres and the number of Sox2+/+ cell pairs, an effect blocked by Notch pathway inhibition. Moreover, R-m-AEA treatment for 48 h, increased proliferation as assessed by BrdU incorporation assay, an effect mediated by activation of MAPK-ERK and AKT pathways. Surprisingly, stimulation of CB1R by R-m-AEA also promoted neuronal differentiation (without affecting glial differentiation), at 7 days, as shown by counting the number of NeuN-positive neurons in the cultures. Moreover, by monitoring intracellular calcium concentrations ([Ca2+](i)) in single cells following KCl and histamine stimuli, a method that allows the functional evaluation of neuronal differentiation, we observed an increase in neuronal-like cells. This proneurogenic effect was blocked when SVZ cells were co-incubated with R-m-AEA and the CB1R antagonist AM 251, for 7 days, thus indicating that this effect involves CB1R activation. In accordance with an effect on neuronal differentiation and maturation, R-m-AEA also increased neurite growth, as evaluated by quantifying and measuring the number of MAP2-positive processes. Taken together, these results demonstrate that CB1R activation induces proliferation, self-renewal and neuronal differentiation from mouse neonatal SVZ cell cultures.Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia - Portugal [POCTI/SAU-NEU/68465/2006, PTDC/SAU-NEU/104415/2008, PTDC/SAU-NEU/101783/2008, POCTI/SAU-NEU/110838/2009]; Fundacao Calouste Gulbenkian [96542]; Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologiainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio