Time variability of cyclonic geostrophic circulation in the Mediterranean

Interannual variability and trends of the surface geostrophic cyclonic circulation and cyclone frequency in Western and Eastern Mediterranean areas are analyzed, based on a cyclone data base derived from the ERA-40 ECWMF reanalysis (within the MEDEX project tasks), spanning from September/1957 to August/2002. In this 45 years, the cyclonic circulation show a significant decrease in the Western Mediterranean, mostly in winter and spring, and an increase in the Eastern, mainly due to the summer and autumn increase in the frequency of thermal lows

Detection and thermal description of medicanes from numerical simulation

Tropical-like cyclones rarely affect the Mediterranean region but they can produce strong winds and heavy precipitations. These warm-core cyclones, called MEDICANES (MEDIterranean hurriCANES), are small in size, develop over the sea and are infrequent. For these reasons, the detection and forecast of medicanes are a difficult task and many efforts have been devoted to identify them. <br><br> The goals of this work are to contribute to a proper description of these structures and to develop some criteria to identify medicanes from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs. To do that, existing methodologies for detecting, characterizating and tracking cyclones have been adapted to small-scale intense cyclonic perturbations. First, a mesocyclone detection and tracking algorithm has been modified to select intense cyclones. Next, the parameters that define the Hart's cyclone phase diagram are tuned and calculated to examine their thermal structure. <br><br> Four well-known medicane events have been described from numerical simulation outputs of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model. The predicted cyclones and their evolution have been validated against available observational data and numerical analyses from the literature

A study on the forecast quality of the mediterranean cyclones

Comunicación presentada en: 4th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms celebrada del 2 al 4 de octubre de 2002 en Palma de Mallorca.The main general objective of MEDEX is stated to be the improvement of knowledge and forecasting of cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean area. So, for this scope one of the intermediate goals of the project concerns the development of an objective method to evaluate the quality of the forecast of the cyclones. The topic of the present study is to investigate the cyclone's forecast errors in that area and to propose an objective methodology to quantify them. An investigation on the performance of the HIRLAM(INM)-0.5 model in the forecast of cyclonic centres has been done. Databases of analysed and forecasted cyclones for the Western Mediterranean have been used in this study. The "distance" between the analysed and forecasted cyclone has been measured calculating the differences in the value of the parameters chosen to describe them at the sea level surface. Results on the characteristics of the errors are shown. An index constructed by means of these differences has been introduced to evaluate the ability of the model forecasting cyclones, and to quantify it. From this index, two others indexes have been derived in order to discriminate if the forecast has overestimated or underestimated some magnitudes in the description of the cyclone. Three different time forecast ranges, H+12,H+24 and H+48, have been considered to investigate temporal trend in their quality. Finally, to check this methodology, it has been applied to some MEDEX cases

Situación meteorológica del 30 de enero de 1986

Ponencia presentada en: II Simposio Nacional de Predictores, celebrado en 1990 en Madrid los días 20-22 de noviembr

Convección sobre el Mediterráneo occidental: estudio sinóptico y observación remota

[ES]Los días 15 y 16 de noviembre de 1985, se presentó sobre el Mediterráneo occidental un episodio de tormentas que produjeron precipitaciones copiosas en algunos puntos de las Baleares. En concreto, en Ibiza y Formentera se registraron hasta 280 mm el día 15. Se hace un estudio de la evoluciqn de una tormenta a partir de imágenes IR de satélite (NOAA y METEOSA T) recibidas en una estación secundaria APT.[EN]On November, 15 and 16, 1985 strong thunderstorms developped over the western Mediteranean, and sorne points of the Balearic Islands (Ibiza and Formentera) registered precipitations up to 280 mm. IR Satellite pictures allow us to see the evolution of a thunderstorm which presents a triangle shape, during more than 29 hours

Tuberculosis transmission patterns among Spanish-born and foreign-born populations in the city of Barcelona

AbstractDuring a 2-year period (2003–2004), tuberculosis (TB) transmission in Barcelona and the factors related to transmission among the Spanish- and foreign-born populations were studied by molecular epidemiology. Data were obtained from TB cases and Conventional Contact Tracing registries and genotyping was performed using restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP)-IS6110 and MIRU12 as a secondary typing method. Of the 892 TB cases reported, 583 (65.3%) corresponded to Spanish-born and 309 (34.6%) to foreign-born. Six hundred and eighty-seven cases (77%) were confirmed by culture. RFLP typing of 463/687 (67.4%) isolates was performed, revealing 280 (60.5%) unique and 183 (39.5%) shared patterns, which were grouped into 65 clusters. Spanish-born individuals were significantly more clustered than foreign-born individuals (44.6% vs. 28.8%; p 0.016). Clustering in foreign-born individuals was associated with HIV (p 0.051, odds ratio = 3.1, 95% confidence interval 1–10.9) and alcohol abuse (p 0.022), whereas, in the Spanish-born individuals, clustering was associated with age in the range 21–50 years, (p 0.024). Of the total clusters, 36/65 (55.3%) included only Spanish-born patients, whereas 22/65 (33.8%) included individuals from both populations. In mixed clusters, the index case was Spanish-born in 53% and foreign-born in 47%. Among the foreign-born, 2.8% were ill on arrival, 30% developed TB within the first year and 50.3% developed TB within the first 2 years; 58.3% were from South America. In conclusion, half of the foreign-born TB patients developed the disease during the first 2 years after arrival, which, in most cases, was the result of endogenous reactivation. Recent TB transmission among Spanish-born and foreign-born populations, as well as bidirectional transmission between communities, contributed significantly to the burden of TB in Barcelona, suggesting the need to improve Public Health interventions in both populations

Utility of clinical-epidemiological profiles in outbreaks of foodborne disease, Catalonia, 2002 through 2006

The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of clinical- epidemiological profiles for classifying non-laboratory-confirmed outbreaks of foodborne disease (FBD) in Catalonia between 2002 and 2006 and for elucidating associations among factors contributing to these outbreaks. A total of 275 nonfamily outbreaks were studied, of which 190 (69.1%) were laboratory confirmed and 85 (30.9%) were not. In 176 (92.6%) of laboratory-confirmed outbreaks and 69 (81.2%) of non-laboratory-confirmed outbreaks, information was obtained on contributing factors (P = 0.009). In 72% of non-laboratory-confirmed outbreaks, the etiology was assigned by using clinical-epidemiological profiles; thus, 93% of outbreaks eventually were associated with an etiology. In laboratory-confirmed outbreaks, poor personal hygiene was positively associated with norovirus (odds ratio [OR], 2.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.47 to 4.89; P = 0,0007) and negatively associated with Salmonella and Campylobacter (OR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.89; P = 0.01), and an unsafe source was positively associated with Salmonella and Campylobacter (OR, 4.07; 95% CI, 1.72 to 10.09; P = 0.001) and negatively associated with norovirus (OR, 0.14; 95% CI, 0.04 to 0.58; P = 0.001). No differences were found among contributing factors associated with outbreaks with a laboratoryconfirmed etiology and those associated with outbreaks with an etiology assigned according to the clinical-epidemiological profiles. Clinical-epidemiological profiles are useful for determining what prevention and control strategies are appropriate to the agents involved in each community and for designing outbreak investigations. Copyright ©, International Association for Food Protection.This work was partially funded by the Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Spain, and by the Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias (project PI 030877).Peer Reviewe

Epidemiology of the Meningococcal Disease in Catalonia before and after Vaccination against Serogroup C

Fundamentos: La enfermedad meningocócica continúa siendo un grave problema de salud pública en todo el mundo. En Cataluña, tras implementar el programa de vacunación, ha habido un descenso importante de los casos producidos por meningococo C. Métodos: Se analizaron los casos notificados de enfermedad meningocócica entre 1997 y 2008 para determinar la evolución después de la introducción de la vacuna conjugada en Cataluña. Resultados: La tasa de incidencia de casos por serogrupo C en menores de 6 años se redujo de 7,6 por 100000 personas/año en el período prevacunal (1997-2000) hasta 0,6 en el período postvacunal (2001-2007). En los casos por serogrupo B, la reducción fue mucho menor, de 15.4 a 11.1. En los menores de 20 años, la tasa de letalidad solo aumento en los casos por serogrupo B (3% en el período prevacunal y 7.4% en el postvacunal).Entre 2000 y 2008, el subtipo P1.15 ha sido el más frecuentemente identificado entre los casos por serogrupo B (31%), asociado principalmente al serotipo 4 (80%), y el subtipo P1.5 (36%) asociado mayoritariamente al serotipo 2a (86%), en los casos por serogrupo C. Durante 2008, 5 casos de B:2a:P1.5, sin aparente relación entre sí fueron identificados en una misma zona geográfica, con una letalidad de 80%. Conclusiones: Es necesario mantener una constante y exhaustiva vigilancia para conocer las cepas circulantes en cada momento y detectar precozmente posibles cambios y recombinaciones entre ellasBackgrounds: Meningococcal disease remains a serious public health problem worldwide. In Catalonia, after implementing the vaccination program, there has been a significant decrease in cases caused by meningococcus C. Methods: Reported cases of meningococcal disease between 1997 and 2008 were analyzed to determine the evolution after the introduction of a conjugated vaccine in Catalonia. Results: In <6 years, the incidence rate of serogroup C fell from 7.6 to 0.6 per 100,000 persons/year in the periods before (1997-2000) and after (2001-2007) the introduction of the conjugate vaccine. In serogroup B, the reduction was from 15.4 to 11.1. In <20 years case-fatality-rate increased only in serogroup B (3% and 7.4%). Serosubtype P1.15was the most frequent in serogroup B (31%), mainly associated with serotype 4 (80%), and in serogroup C subtype P1.5 (36%), with serotype 2a (86%). During 2008, 5 apparently unrelated cases of B:2a:P1.5 were identified in the same geographic area, with a case-fatality-rate of 80%. Conclusions: Exhaustive surveillance of circulating meningococcal strains is essentialEste trabajo ha sido parcialmente financiado por CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), España.S