Taurek, numbers and probabilities

In his paper, “Should the Numbers Count?" John Taurek imagines that we are in a position such that we can either save a group of five people, or we can save one individual, David. We cannot save David and the five. This is because they each require a life-saving drug. However, David needs all of the drug if he is to survive, while the other five need only a fifth each.Typically, people have argued as if there was a choice to be made: either numbers matter, in which case we should save the greater number, or numbers don't matter, but rather there is moral value in giving each person an equal chance of survival, and therefore we should toss a coin. My claim is that we do not have to make a choice in this way. Rather, numbers do matter, but it doesn't follow that we should always save the greater number. And likewise, there is moral value in giving each person an equal chance of survival, but it doesn't follow that we should always toss a coin.In addition, I argue that a similar approach can be applied to situations in which we can save one person or another, but the chances of success are different

The Predatory Bird Monitoring Scheme (PBMS) Report 2006-7

The Predatory Bird Monitoring Scheme (PBMS) examines the levels of certain pollutants in selected wildlife species in Britain. It started in the 1960s to assess the impact of organochlorine pesticides on raptor populations, and the scheme is now the longest-running of its kind in the world. The aims of the PBMS are to monitor the levels of contaminants to determine how and why they vary between species and regions, how they are changing over time, and the risks they may have on individual birds and on their populations. Dead predatory birds are submitted to the PBMS by the public and by wildlife hospitals, veterinarian and zoological organisations. Eggs are collected, under licence, from a range of nests. The majority of these eggs are addled or deserted, although for some species, e.g. northern gannets, fresh egg are sampled. Second generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs) are potentially toxic to all mammals and birds, and predators that feed upon rodents are particularly likely to be exposed to these compounds. Since 1983 the PBMS has monitored SGAR residues in barn owls, while kestrels have been monitored since 2001. The proportion of barn owls which have one or more SGARs in their liver increased from less than 10% in the 1980s to approximately 40% in the early 2000s. However, there has been a small decrease in this percentage in the last few years. A higher proportion of kestrels have detectable residues of SGARs in their liver than barn owls with 60% of birds received in the years 2001 to 2006 having one or more SGAR in their liver. There is no evidence of a change over time in the proportion ok kestrels with detectable liver SGAR residues. Overall, the high incidence of exposure amongst monitored species remains of concern. Sparrowhawk livers are analysed for a range of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals. Sparrowhawks are studied because they have a wide distribution across the Britain and can be used as a sentinel species for the terrestrial environment. Following restrictions on its use as an agricultural pesticide, mercury concentrations have declined in sparrowhawks. However, despite PCBs being banned in 1981, there has not been any long-term change in polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) liver concentrations in sparrowhawks during the period 1968-2006. In herons, used as a sentinel species for freshwater habitats, both PCB and mercury concentrations have declined. In 2006, mean PCB and mercury concentrations in both species were below those thought to have an adverse effect on individual birds. Pollutants, such as mercury and PCBs, can affect development and hatchability.. Therefore, the PBMS monitors the levels of contaminants in the eggs of a range of species including those of conservation concern such as golden eagle and the re-introduced white-tailed sea eagle. Other species that are monitored are the northern gannet, which are used as a monitor of the marine environment, and merlin that hunt in upland habitats. In general, and specifically in 2006, the residues measured in the eggs of golden eagle and gannets are below those thought to have an adverse effect on bird eggs, but some residues in individual merlin eggs were at concentrations associated with effects in other species. Few white-tailed see eagle eggs are received for analysis by the PBMS but a large proportion of those eggs that have been analysed, including the egg collected in 2006, have DDE, PCB and mercury concentrations above levels associated with adverse effects on bird embryos and the hatching success of eggs. Despite the withdrawal of PCBs from manufacturing over 20 years ago, the evidence for declining PCB concentrations in predatory birds is equivocal, with declines in liver or egg residues in some species but not in others. Mercury concentrations in most species have not significantly changed during the monitoring period

Studies on growth rates in pigs and the effect of birth weight

End of project reportThe purpose of this study was to assess some environmental and management factors that affect growth performance on commercial pig units. In experiment 1, a survey was carried out on 22 pig units of known growth performance in south-west Ireland to compare management factors between those showing poor and good growth rates. Low growth rate appears to be due to the cumulative effect of a combination of factors. Experiment 2 was conducted to determine the effects of providing an additional feeder on performance of weaned piglets. No benefits were recorded. Feed consumed from the additional feeder was a replacement for feed that otherwise would have been consumed from the control hopper feeder. Experiment 3 was designed to determine if pig performance and efficiency of growth were affected by weight at birth and at weaning. Lightweight pigs showed inferior growth performance up to the finisher period. Although they compensated some of the inferior growth towards the time of slaughter, they never reached the weights of the heavy birth-weight animals. Males were either significantly heavier or tended to be heavier than females throughout. There was no significant difference between the sexes in the number of days to slaughter. Light and heavy pigs did not differ in the levels of IGF-1 in their blood plasma; however lightweight pigs had significantly lower IgG preweaning. Experiment 4 aimed to determine whether piglet birth weight influenced growth performance, plasma IGF-1 concentrations and muscle fibre characteristics at day 42 of life. At slaughter (Day 42) light birth weight pigs were significantly (P < 0.001) lighter. Plasma IGF-1 concentration was lower by 28% (P=0.06) in light pigs. Muscle fibre cross sectional area and total fibre number were not significantly different between groups. This study should be repeated with bigger numbers

The emergence of proton nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics in the cardiovascular arena as viewed from a clinical perspective

The ability to phenotype metabolic profiles in serum has increased substantially in recent years with the advent of metabolomics. Metabolomics is the study of the metabolome, defined as those molecules with an atomic mass less than 1.5 kDa. There are two main metabolomics methods: mass spectrometry (MS) and proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1H NMR) spectroscopy, each with its respective benefits and limitations. MS has greater sensitivity and so can detect many more metabolites. However, its cost (especially when heavy labelled internal standards are required for absolute quantitation) and quality control is sub-optimal for large cohorts. 1H NMR is less sensitive but sample preparation is generally faster and analysis times shorter, resulting in markedly lower analysis costs. 1H NMR is robust, reproducible and can provide absolute quantitation of many metabolites. Of particular relevance to cardio-metabolic disease is the ability of 1H NMR to provide detailed quantitative data on amino acids, fatty acids and other metabolites as well as lipoprotein subparticle concentrations and size. Early epidemiological studies suggest promise, however, this is an emerging field and more data is required before we can determine the clinical utility of these measures to improve disease prediction and treatment. This review describes the theoretical basis of 1H NMR; compares MS and 1H NMR and provides a tabular overview of recent 1H NMR-based research findings in the atherosclerosis field, describing the design and scope of studies conducted to date. 1H NMR metabolomics-CVD related research is emerging, however further large, robustly conducted prospective, genetic and intervention studies are needed to advance research on CVD risk prediction and to identify causal pathways amenable to intervention

Effect of different land covers on nitrate-nitrogen leaching and nitrogen uptake in Iowa

Nitrate-nitrogen (NO 3 -N) loading from subsurface drainage is an environmental concern in the Midwest. The majority of NO 3 -N loading occurs in April, May and June when the crops are not planted or just establishing. In this study, NO 3 -N leaching was monitored under alternative land covers and in a corn-soybean rotation. Land cover treatments in a 2-year field experiment included: 1) corn-soybean rotation initiated with corn in 2006 and fallow in late fall and early spring (fallow-Corn-fallow-Soybean, fCfS); 2) corn-soybean rotation initiated with soybean in 2006 and fallow in late fall and early spring (fallow-Soybean-fallow-Corn, fSfC); 3) corn-soybean rotation initiated with corn in 2006 with rye cover crop (rye-Corn-rye-Soybean, rCrS); 4) corn-soybean rotation initiated with soybean in 2006 with rye cover crop ( rye-Soybean-rye-Corn, rSrC); 5) Corn with established kura clover as a living mulch (kura-Kura-kura-Corn, kKkC); and 6) Pasture as a perennial grass treatment (PP). Subsurface drainage volume and NO 3 -N concentration were monitored. Suction lysimeters were installed to extract the soil water solution for NO 3 -N analysis. Biomass of spring cover crops was sampled to analyze nitrogen (N) content. The objectives of this study were: 1) to determine NO 3 -N loss through subsurface drainage as affected by different land covers; 2) to investigate the NO 3 -N concentrations in the soil water under different land covers and 3) to quantify the nitrogen uptake by different cover crops in the spring. The results from the two-year study indicated that the annual average NO 3 -N loss for fCfS and fSfC treatments was 37.5 kg N ha -1 and that the rCrS and rSrC treatments reduced NO 3 -N leaching by 3.8 kg N ha -1 during April, May and June. kKkC and PP treatments resulted in 39.7% and 59.9% annual NO 3 -N leaching reduction, respectively, when compared to the average NO 3 -N loss of fCfS and fSfC treatments. Rye followed by soybean reduced the NO 3 -N concentration in the soil solution significantly (56.4%) at the 30- and 60-cm depths, and PP treatment showed the lowest NO 3 -N concentration at those two depths. The average nitrogen uptake by rye was 33.3 kg N ha -1 at growth termination, and the average N uptake was 59.9 kg N ha -1 for kura clover and 33.2 kg N ha -1 for pasture in early June. This study suggested that winter rye cover crop, kura clover as a living mulch and perennial pasture land covers have positive effects on NO 3 -N loss reduction under the weather condition encountered during this study period in Iowa

An effective long-range attraction between protein molecules in solutions studied by small angle neutron scattering

Small angle neutron scattering intensity distributions taken from cytochrome C and lysozyme protein solutions show a rising intensity at very small wave vector, Q, which can be interpreted in terms of the presence of a weak long-range attraction between protein molecules. This interaction has a range several times that of the diameter of the protein molecule, much greater than the range of the screened electrostatic repulsion. We show evidence that this long-range attraction is closely related to the type of anion present and ion concentration in the solution

Cohort profile: the avon longitudinal study of parents and children: ALSPAC mothers cohort

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Children and Parents (ALSPAC) was established to understand how genetic and environmental characteristics influence health and development in parents and children. All pregnant women resident in a defined area in the South West of England, with an expected date of delivery between 1st April 1991 and 31st December 1992, were eligible and 13 761 women (contributing 13 867 pregnancies) were recruited. These women have been followed over the last 19–22 years and have completed up to 20 questionnaires, have had detailed data abstracted from their medical records and have information on any cancer diagnoses and deaths through record linkage. A follow-up assessment was completed 17–18 years postnatal at which anthropometry, blood pressure, fat, lean and bone mass and carotid intima media thickness were assessed, and a fasting blood sample taken. The second follow-up clinic, which additionally measures cognitive function, physical capability, physical activity (with accelerometer) and wrist bone architecture, is underway and two further assessments with similar measurements will take place over the next 5 years. There is a detailed biobank that includes DNA, with genome-wide data available on &gt;10 000, stored serum and plasma taken repeatedly since pregnancy and other samples; a wide range of data on completed biospecimen assays are available. Details of how to access these data are provided in this cohort profile

Association of plasma uric acid with ischaemic heart disease and blood pressure: mendelian randomisation analysis of two large cohorts

Objectives: To assess the associations between both uric acid levels and hyperuricaemia, with ischaemic heart disease and blood pressure, and to explore the potentially confounding role of body mass index. Design: Mendelian randomisation analysis, using variation at specific genes (SLC2A9 (rs7442295) as an instrument for uric acid; and FTO (rs9939609), MC4R (rs17782313), and TMEM18 (rs6548238) for body mass index). Setting: Two large, prospective cohort studies in Denmark. Participants: We measured levels of uric acid and related covariables in 58 072 participants from the Copenhagen General Population Study and 10 602 from the Copenhagen City Heart Study, comprising 4890 and 2282 cases of ischaemic heart disease, respectively. Main outcome: Blood pressure and prospectively assessed ischaemic heart disease. Results: Estimates confirmed known observational associations between plasma uric acid and hyperuricaemia with risk of ischaemic heart disease and diastolic and systolic blood pressure. However, when using genotypic instruments for uric acid and hyperuricaemia, we saw no evidence for causal associations between uric acid, ischaemic heart disease, and blood pressure. We used genetic instruments to investigate body mass index as a potentially confounding factor in observational associations, and saw a causal effect on uric acid levels. Every four unit increase of body mass index saw a rise in uric acid of 0.03 mmol/L (95% confidence interval 0.02 to 0.04), and an increase in risk of hyperuricaemia of 7.5% (3.9% to 11.1%). Conclusion: By contrast with observational findings, there is no strong evidence for causal associations between uric acid and ischaemic heart disease or blood pressure. However, evidence supports a causal effect between body mass index and uric acid level and hyperuricaemia. This finding strongly suggests body mass index as a confounder in observational associations, and suggests a role for elevated body mass index or obesity in the development of uric acid related conditions

Geometry of Empty Space is the Key to Near-Arrest Dynamics

We study several examples of kinetically constrained lattice models using dynamically accessible volume as an order parameter. Thereby we identify two distinct regimes exhibiting dynamical slowing, with a sharp threshold between them. These regimes are identified both by a new response function in dynamically available volume, as well as directly in the dynamics. Results for the selfdiffusion constant in terms of the connected hole density are presented, and some evidence is given for scaling in the limit of dynamical arrest.Comment: 11 page