Evolutionary multi-stage financial scenario tree generation

Multi-stage financial decision optimization under uncertainty depends on a careful numerical approximation of the underlying stochastic process, which describes the future returns of the selected assets or asset categories. Various approaches towards an optimal generation of discrete-time, discrete-state approximations (represented as scenario trees) have been suggested in the literature. In this paper, a new evolutionary algorithm to create scenario trees for multi-stage financial optimization models will be presented. Numerical results and implementation details conclude the paper

Observations of preferential summer melt of Arctic sea-ice ridge keels from repeated multibeam sonar surveys

Sea-ice ridges constitute a large fraction of the total Arctic sea-ice area (up to 40 %–50 %); nevertheless, they are the least studied part of the ice pack. Here we investigate sea-ice melt rates using rare, repeated underwater multibeam sonar surveys that cover a period of 1 month during the advanced stage of sea-ice melt. Bottom melt increases with ice draft for first- and second-year level ice and a first-year ice ridge, with an average of 0.46, 0.55, and 0.95 m of total snow and ice melt in the observation period, respectively. On average, the studied ridge had a 4.6 m keel bottom draft, was 42 m wide, and had 4 % macroporosity. While bottom melt rates of ridge keel were 3.8 times higher than first-year level ice, surface melt rates were almost identical but responsible for 40 % of ridge draft decrease. Average cross-sectional keel melt ranged from 0.2 to 2.6 m, with a maximum point ice loss of 6 m, showcasing its large spatial variability. We attribute 57 % of the ridge total (surface and bottom) melt variability to keel draft (36 %), slope (32 %), and width (27 %), with higher melt for ridges with a larger draft, a steeper slope, and a smaller width. The melt rate of the ridge keel flanks was proportional to the draft, with increased keel melt within 10 m of its bottom corners and the melt rates between these corners comparable to the melt rates of level ice.</p

Snowmelt contribution to Arctic first-year ice ridge mass balance and rapid consolidation during summer melt

Sea ice ridges are one of the most under-sampled and poorly understood components of the Arctic sea ice system. Yet, ridges play a crucial role in the sea ice mass balance and have been identified as ecological hotspots for ice-associated flora and fauna in the Arctic. To better understand the mass balance of sea ice ridges, we drilled and sampled two different first-year ice (FYI) ridges in June–July 2020 during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC). Ice cores were cut into 5 cm sections, melted, then analyzed for salinity and oxygen (d18O) isotope composition. Combined with isotope data of snow samples,we used a mixing model to quantify the contribution of snow to the consolidated sea ice ridge mass. Our results demonstrate that snow meltwater is important for summer consolidation and overall ice mass balance of FYI ridges during the melt season, representing 6%–11% of total ridged ice mass or an ice thickness equivalent of 0.37–0.53 m.These findings demonstrate that snowmelt contributes to consolidation of FYI ridges and is a mechanism resulting in a relative increase of sea ice volume in summer. This mechanism can also affect the mechanical strength and survivability of ridges, but also contribute to reduction of the habitable space and light levels within FYI ridges. We proposed a combination of two pathways for the transport of snow meltwater and incorporation into ridge keels: percolation downward through the ridge and/or lateral transport from the under-ice meltwater layer. Whether only one pathway or a combination of both pathways is most likely remains unclear based on our observations, warranting further research on ridge morphologypublishedVersio

The effect of Quorum sensing inhibitors on the evolution of CRISPR-based phage immunity in Pseudomonas aeruginosa

This is the final version. Available from Springer Nature via the DOI in this record. Quorum sensing controls the expression of a wide range of important traits in the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa, including the expression of virulence genes and its CRISPR-cas immune system, which protects from bacteriophage (phage) infection. This finding has led to the speculation that synthetic quorum sensing inhibitors could be used to limit the evolution of CRISPR immunity during phage therapy. Here we use experimental evolution to explore if and how a quorum sensing inhibitor influences the population and evolutionary dynamics of P. aeruginosa upon phage DMS3vir infection. We find that chemical inhibition of quorum sensing decreases phage adsorption rates due to downregulation of the Type IV pilus, which causes delayed lysis of bacterial cultures and favours the evolution of CRISPR immunity. Our data therefore suggest that inhibiting quorum sensing may reduce rather than improve the therapeutic efficacy of pilus-specific phage, and this is likely a general feature when phage receptors are positively regulated by quorum sensing.Lundbeck FoundationLundbeck FoundationRoyal Societ

Exploring Klebsiella pneumoniae in Healthy Poultry Reveals High Genetic Diversity, Good Biofilm-Forming Abilities and Higher Prevalence in Turkeys Than Broilers

Klebsiella pneumoniae is a well-studied human pathogen for which antimicrobial resistant and hypervirulent clones have emerged globally. K. pneumoniae is also present in a variety of environmental niches, but currently there is a lack of knowledge on the occurrence and characteristics of K. pneumoniae from non-human sources. Certain environmental niches, e.g., animals, may be associated with high K. pneumoniae abundance, and these can constitute a reservoir for further transmission of strains and genetic elements. The aim of this study was to explore and characterize K. pneumoniae from healthy broilers and turkeys. A total of 511 cecal samples (broiler n = 356, turkey n = 155), included in the Norwegian monitoring program for antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in the veterinary sector (NORM-VET) in 2018, were screened for K. pneumoniae by culturing on SCAI agar. K. pneumoniae was detected in 207 (40.5%) samples. Among the broiler samples, 25.8% were positive for K. pneumoniae, in contrast to turkey with 74.2% positive samples (p < 0.01). Antibiotic susceptibility testing was performed, in addition to investigating biofilm production. Whole genome sequencing was performed on 203 K. pneumoniae isolates, and analysis was performed utilizing comparative genomics tools. The genomes grouped into 66 sequence types (STs), with ST35, ST4710 and ST37 being the most prevalent at 13.8%, 7.4%, and 5.4%, respectively. The overall AMR occurrence was low, with only 11.3% of the isolates showing both pheno- and genotypic resistance. Genes encoding aerobactin, salmochelin or yersiniabactin were detected in 47 (23.2%) genomes. Fifteen hypervirulent genomes belonging to ST4710 and isolated from turkey were identified. These all encoded the siderophore virulence loci iuc5 and iro5 on an IncF plasmid. Isolates from both poultry species displayed good biofilm-forming abilities with an average of OD595 0.69 and 0.64. To conclude, the occurrence of K. pneumoniae in turkey was significantly higher than in broiler, indicating that turkey might be an important zoonotic reservoir for K. pneumoniae compared to broilers. Furthermore, our results show a highly diverse K. pneumoniae population in poultry, low levels of antimicrobial resistance, good biofilm-forming abilities and a novel hypervirulent ST4710 clone circulating in the turkey population

Snowmelt contribution to Arctic first-year ice ridge mass balance and rapid consolidation during summer melt

An assessment of potential groundwater areas in the Ifni basin, located in the western AntiAtlas range of Morocco, was conducted based on a multicriteria analytical approach that integrated a set of geomorphological and hydroclimatic factors influencing the availability of this resource. This approach involved the use of geographic information systems (GIS) and hierarchical analytical process (AHP) models. Different factors were classified and weighted according to their contribution to and impact on groundwater reserves. Their normalized weights were evaluated using a pairwise comparison matrix. Four classes of potentiality emerged: very high, high, moderate, and low, occupying 15.22%, 20.17%, 30.96%, and 33.65%, respectively, of the basin’s area. A groundwater potential map (GWPA) was validated by comparison with data from 134 existing water points using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The AUC was calculated at 80%, indicating the good predictive accuracy of the AHP method. These results will enable water operators to select favorable sites with a high groundwater potential

Roadmap on emerging concepts in the physical biology of bacterial biofilms: from surface sensing to community formation

Bacterial biofilms are communities of bacteria that exist as aggregates that can adhere to surfaces or be free-standing. This complex, social mode of cellular organization is fundamental to the physiology of microbes and often exhibits surprising behavior. Bacterial biofilms are more than the sum of their parts: single-cell behavior has a complex relation to collective community behavior, in a manner perhaps cognate to the complex relation between atomic physics and condensed matter physics. Biofilm microbiology is a relatively young field by biology standards, but it has already attracted intense attention from physicists. Sometimes, this attention takes the form of seeing biofilms as inspiration for new physics. In this roadmap, we highlight the work of those who have taken the opposite strategy: we highlight the work of physicists and physical scientists who use physics to engage fundamental concepts in bacterial biofilm microbiology, including adhesion, sensing, motility, signaling, memory, energy flow, community formation and cooperativity. These contributions are juxtaposed with microbiologists who have made recent important discoveries on bacterial biofilms using state-of-the-art physical methods. The contributions to this roadmap exemplify how well physics and biology can be combined to achieve a new synthesis, rather than just a division of labor