The global stock of research evidence relevant to health systems policymaking

Background: Policymakers and stakeholders need immediate access to many types of research evidence to make informed decisions about the full range of questions that may arise regarding health systems. Methods: We examined all types of research evidence about governance, financial and delivery arrangements, and implementation strategies within health systems contained in Health Systems Evidence (HSE) (http://www.healthsystemsevidence.org). The research evidence types include evidence briefs for policy, overviews of systematic reviews, systematic reviews of effects, systematic reviews addressing other questions, systematic reviews in progress, systematic reviews being planned, economic evaluations, and health reform and health system descriptions. Specifically, we describe their distribution across health system topics and domains, trends in their production over time, availability of supplemental content in various languages, and the extent to which they focus on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), as well as (for systematic reviews) their methodological quality and the availability of user-friendly summaries. Results: As of July 2013, HSE contained 2,629 systematic reviews of effects (of which 501 are Cochrane reviews), 614 systematic reviews addressing other questions, 283 systematic reviews in progress, 186 systematic reviews being planned, 140 review-derived products (evidence briefs and overviews of systematic reviews), 1,669 economic evaluations, 1,092 health reform descriptions, and 209 health system descriptions. Most systematic reviews address topics related to delivery arrangements (n = 2,663) or implementation strategies (n = 1,653) with far fewer addressing financial (n = 241) or governance arrangements (n = 231). In addition, 2,928 systematic reviews have been quality appraised with moderate AMSTAR ratings found for reviews addressing governance (5.6/11), financial (5.9/11), and delivery (6.3/11) arrangements and implementation strategies (6.5/11); 1,075 systematic reviews have no independently produced user-friendly summary and only 737 systematic reviews have an LMIC focus. Literature searches for half of the systematic reviews (n = 1,584, 49%) were conducted within the last five years. Conclusions: Greater effort needs to focus on assessing whether the current distribution of systematic reviews corresponds to policymakers’ and stakeholders’ priorities, updating systematic reviews, increasing the quality of systematic reviews, and focusing on LMICs

Optimisation of methods for bacterial skin microbiome investigation: primer selection and comparison of the 454 versus MiSeq platform

BACKGROUND: The composition of the skin microbiome is predicted to play a role in the development of conditions such as atopic eczema and psoriasis. 16S rRNA gene sequencing allows the investigation of bacterial microbiota. A significant challenge in this field is development of cost effective high throughput methodologies for the robust interrogation of the skin microbiota, where biomass is low. Here we describe validation of methodologies for 16S rRNA (ribosomal ribonucleic acid) gene sequencing from the skin microbiome, using the Illumina MiSeq platform, the selection of primer to amplify regions for sequencing and we compare results with the current standard protocols.. METHODS: DNA was obtained from two low density mock communities of 11 diverse bacterial strains (with and without human DNA supplementation) and from swabs taken from the skin of healthy volunteers. This was amplified using primer pairs covering hypervariable regions of the 16S rRNA gene: primers 63F and 519R (V1-V3); and 347F and 803R (V3-V4). The resultant libraries were indexed for the MiSeq and Roche454 and sequenced. Both data sets were denoised, cleaned of chimeras and analysed using QIIME. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the diversity indices at the phylum and the genus level observed between the platforms. The capture of diversity using the low density mock community samples demonstrated that the primer pair spanning the V3-V4 hypervariable region had better capture when compared to the primer pair for the V1-V3 region and was robust to spiking with human DNA. The pilot data generated using the V3-V4 region from the skin of healthy volunteers was consistent with these results, even at the genus level (Staphylococcus, Propionibacterium, Corynebacterium, Paracoccus, Micrococcus, Enhydrobacter and Deinococcus identified at similar abundances on both platforms). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that the bacterial community diversity captured using the V3-V4 16S rRNA hypervariable region from sequencing using the MiSeq platform is comparable to the Roche454 GS Junior platform. These findings provide evidence that the optimised method can be used in human clinical samples of low bacterial biomass such as the investigation of the skin microbiota. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12866-017-0927-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Insights into decadal North Atlantic sea surface temperature and ocean heat content variability from an eddy-permitting coupled climate model

An ocean mixed layer heat budget methodology is used to investigate the physical processes determining subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC) variability on decadal-multidecadal timescales using the state-of-the-art climate model HadGEM3-GC2. New elements include development of an equation for evolution of anomalous SST for interannual and longer timescales in a form analogous to that for OHC, parameterization of the diffusive heat flux at the base of the mixed layer and analysis of a composite AMOC event. Contributions to OHC and SST variability from two sources are evaluated i) net ocean-atmosphere heat flux and ii) all other processes, including advection, diffusion and entrainment for SST. Anomalies in OHC tendency propagate anticlockwise around the SPNA on multidecadal timescales with a clear relationship to the phase of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). AMOC anomalies lead SST tendencies which in turn lead OHC tendencies in both the eastern and western SPNA. OHC and SST variations in the SPNA on decadal timescales are dominated by AMOC variability because it controls variability of advection which is shown to be the dominant term in the OHC budget. Lags between OHC and SST is traced to differences between the advection term for OHC and the advection-entrainment term for SST. The new results have implications for interpretation of variations in Atlantic heat uptake in the CMIP6 climate model assessment

Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data

Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this would be the prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging the gap between "real time monitoring" and "early predicting" remains a big challenge. Here we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie can be predicted much before its release by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.Comment: 13 pages, Including Supporting Information, 7 Figures, Download the dataset from: http://wwm.phy.bme.hu/SupplementaryDataS1.zi

Assessing regional-scale variability in deforestation and forest degradation rates in a tropical biodiversity hotspot

Deforestation and forest degradation are major drivers of global environmental change and tropical forests are subjected to unprecedented pressures from both.For most tropical zones, deforestation rates are averaged across entire countries,often without highlighting regional differentiation. There are also very few estimates of forest degradation, either averaged or localized for the tropics. We quantified regional and country-wide changes in deforestation and forest degradation rates for Madagascar from Landsat temporal data (in two intervals,1994–2002 and 2002–2014). To our knowledge, this is the first country-wide estimate of forest degradation for Madagascar. We also performed an intensity analysis to categorize the magnitude and speed of transitions between forest,vegetation matrix, cultivated land and exposed surface. We found significant regional heterogeneity in deforestation and forest degradation. Deforestation rates decreased annually in lowland evergreen moist forest by -0.24% and in all other vegetation zones. Forest degradation rates had annual increases in the same period in lowland evergreen moist forest (0.09%), littoral forest (0.06%)but decreased in medium altitude moist evergreen forest (-0.25%), dry deciduous forest (-0.23%) and scelrophyllous woodland (-0.61%) in the same period. Despite these regional differences, higher rates of deforestation and forest degradation were consistently driven by rapid and large-sized conversions of largely intact forest to cultivated lands and exposed surfaces, most of which occurred between 1994 and 2002. These results suggest that while targeted conservation projects may have reduced forest degradation rates in some areas (e.g.medium altitude moist evergreen forest), the drivers of land cover change remain intense in relatively neglected regions. We advocate a more balanced approach to future conservation initiatives, one recognizing that deforestation and forest degradation, particularly in tropical Africa, are often driven by region-specific conditions and therefore require conservation policies tailored for local conditions

Major variations in subtropical North Atlantic heat transport at short (5 day) timescales and their causes

Variability in the North Atlantic ocean heat transport at 26.5°N on short (5-day) timescales is identified and contrasted with different behaviour at monthly intervals using a combination of RAPID/MOCHA/WBTS measurements and the NEMO-LIM2 1/12° ocean circulation/sea ice model. Wind forcing plays the leading role in establishing the heat transport variability through the Ekman transport response of the ocean and the associated driving atmospheric conditions vary significantly with timescale. We find that at 5-day timescales the largest changes in the heat transport across 26.5°N coincide with north-westerly airflows originating over the American land mass that drive strong southward anomalies in the Ekman flow. During these events the northward heat transport reduces by 0.5-1.4 PW. In contrast, the Ekman transport response at longer monthly timescales is smaller in magnitude (up to 0.5 PW) and consistent with expected variations in the leading mode of North Atlantic atmospheric variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation. The north-westerly airflow mechanism can have a prolonged influence beyond the central 5-day timescale and on occasion can reduce the accumulated winter ocean heat transport into the North Atlantic by ∼40%

Processes, contexts, and rationale for disinvestment: a protocol for a critical interpretive synthesis

Background: Practical solutions are needed to support the appropriate use of available health system resources as countries are continually pressured to ‘do more with less’ in health care. Increasingly, health systems and organizations are exploring the reassessment of possibly obsolete, inefficient, or ineffective health system resources and potentially redirecting funds to those that are more effective and efficient. Such processes are often referred to as ‘disinvestment’. Our objective is to gain further understanding about: 1) whether how and under what conditions health systems decide to pursue disinvestment; 2) how health systems have chosen to undertake disinvestment; and 3) how health systems have implemented their disinvestment approach. Methods/Design We will use a critical interpretive synthesis (CIS) approach, to develop a theoretical framework based on insights drawn from a range of relevant sources. We will conduct systematic searches of databases as well as purposive searches to identify literature to fill conceptual gaps that may emerge during our inductive process of synthesis and analysis. Two independent reviewers will assess search results for relevance and conceptually map included references. We will include all empirical and non-empirical articles that focus on disinvestment at a system level. We will then extract key findings from a purposive sample of articles using frameworks related to government agendas, policy development and implementation, and health system contextual factors and then synthesize and integrate the findings to develop a framework about our core areas of interest. Lastly, we will convene a stakeholder dialogue with Canadian and international policymakers and other stakeholders to solicit targeted feedback about the framework (e.g., by identifying any gaps in the literature that we may want to revisit before finalizing it) and deliberating about barriers for developing and implementing approaches to disinvestment, strategies to address these barriers and about next steps that could be taken by different constituencies. Discussion Disinvestment is an emerging field and there is a need for evidence to inform the prioritization, development, and implementation of strategies in different contexts. Our CIS and the framework developed through it will support the actions of those involved in the prioritization, development, and implementation of disinvestment initiatives. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42014013204 Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/2046-4053-3-143) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Re-evaluating the resource potential of lomas fog oasis environments for Preceramic hunter-gatherers under past ENSO modes on the south coast of Peru

Lomas – ephemeral seasonal oases sustained by ocean fogs – were critical to ancient human ecology on the desert Pacific coast of Peru: one of humanity’s few independent hearths of agriculture and “pristine” civilisation. The role of climate change since the Late Pleistocene in determining productivity and extent of past lomas ecosystems has been much debated. Here we reassess the resource potential of the poorly studied lomas of the south coast of Peru during the long Middle Pre-ceramic period (c. 8,000 – 4,500 BP): a period critical in the transition to agriculture, the onset of modern El Niño Southern Oscillation (‘ENSO’) conditions, and eustatic sea-level rise and stabilisation and beach progradation. Our method combines vegetation survey and herbarium collection with archaeological survey and excavation to make inferences about both Preceramic hunter-gatherer ecology and the changed palaeoenvironments in which it took place. Our analysis of newly discovered archaeological sites – and their resource context – show how lomas formations defined human ecology until the end of the Middle Preceramic Period, thereby corroborating recent reconstructions of ENSO history based on other data. Together, these suggest that a five millennia period of significantly colder seas on the south coast induced conditions of abundance and seasonal predictability in lomas and maritime ecosystems, that enabled Middle Preceramic hunter-gatherers to reduce mobility by settling in strategic locations at the confluence of multiple eco-zones at the river estuaries. Here the foundations of agriculture lay in a Broad Spectrum Revolution that unfolded, not through population pressure in deteriorating environments, but rather as an outcome of resource abundance.We thank the Ministerio de Cultural del Perú for granting permission for archaeological fieldwork (Resolución Directoral Nº 933-2012-DGPC-VMPCIC/MC, 19 December 2012 and Nº 386-2014-DGPA-VMPCIC/MC, 22 August 2014) and the export of samples for dating; Don Alberto Benavides Ganoza and the people of Samaca for facilitating fieldwork; the Leverhulme Trust (grant number RPG-117) and the late Don Alberto Benavides de la Quintana (grant number RG69428) and the McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research for funding Cambridge University’s One River Archaeological Project, and the NERC Radiocarbon facility (grant number NF/2013/2/2) for funding radiocarbon dating. We also thank the Servicio Nacional Forestal y de Fauna Silvestre (SERFOR) and the Servicio Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas por el Estado (SERNANP), Peru for permits for the Proyecto Kew Perú to carry out botanical and ecological survey, and Delsy Trujillo, Eric Ramírez, Consuelo Borda and other participants of the Proyecto Kew Perú: Conservación, Restauración de Hábitats y Medios de Vida Útiles, Ica, Peru.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.10.02

Twitter-based analysis of the dynamics of collective attention to political parties

Large-scale data from social media have a significant potential to describe complex phenomena in real world and to anticipate collective behaviors such as information spreading and social trends. One specific case of study is represented by the collective attention to the action of political parties. Not surprisingly, researchers and stakeholders tried to correlate parties' presence on social media with their performances in elections. Despite the many efforts, results are still inconclusive since this kind of data is often very noisy and significant signals could be covered by (largely unknown) statistical fluctuations. In this paper we consider the number of tweets (tweet volume) of a party as a proxy of collective attention to the party, identify the dynamics of the volume, and show that this quantity has some information on the elections outcome. We find that the distribution of the tweet volume for each party follows a log-normal distribution with a positive autocorrelation of the volume over short terms, which indicates the volume has large fluctuations of the log-normal distribution yet with a short-term tendency. Furthermore, by measuring the ratio of two consecutive daily tweet volumes, we find that the evolution of the daily volume of a party can be described by means of a geometric Brownian motion (i.e., the logarithm of the volume moves randomly with a trend). Finally, we determine the optimal period of averaging tweet volume for reducing fluctuations and extracting short-term tendencies. We conclude that the tweet volume is a good indicator of parties' success in the elections when considered over an optimal time window. Our study identifies the statistical nature of collective attention to political issues and sheds light on how to model the dynamics of collective attention in social media.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables. Published in PLoS ON

The τ-plot, a multicomponent 1-D pole figure plot, to quantify the heterogeneity of plastic deformation

An approach is presented that allows multi-scale characterisations of heterogeneous deformation in crystalline materials by employing a range of characterisation techniques including: electron backscatter diffraction, digital image correlation and neutron diffraction powder measurements. The approach will be used to obtain critical information about the variations in parameters that characterise the deformed state in different crystallographic orientation texture components of a sample in a statistically significant way. These parameters include lattice strains, texture evolution, peak broadening, dislocation density, planar faults, phase changes and surface strain. This approach allows verification of models of plastic deformation to provide a more detailed view of plastic deformation heterogeneity at multiple length scales than obtained by other characterisation approaches. The approach demonstrated here is applied to two stainless steel alloys; an alloy that exhibits phase transformation during deformation and an alloy that remains the same phase all through deformation process