An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale

Land-use/cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. A common approach to analyse and simulate LUCC as the result of individual decisions is agent-based modelling (ABM). However, ABM is often applied to simulate processes at local scales, while its application in regional studies is limited. This paper describes first a conceptual framework for ABM to analyse and explore regional LUCC processes. Second, the conceptual framework is represented by combining different concepts including agent typologies, farm trajectories and probabilistic decision-making processes. Finally, the framework is illustrated through a case study in the Netherlands, where processes of farm cessation, farm expansion and farm diversification are shaping the structure of the landscape. The framework is a generic, straightforward approach to analyse and explore regional LUCC with an explicit link to empirical approaches for parameterization of AB

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

International audienceOver the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directed influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past 60 years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identiy areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trands and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of Pyrenan valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessements of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions

Interleukin-7 deficiency in rheumatoid arthritis: consequences for therapy-induced lymphopenia

We previously demonstrated prolonged, profound CD4+ T-lymphopenia in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients following lymphocyte-depleting therapy. Poor reconstitution could result either from reduced de novo T-cell production through the thymus or from poor peripheral expansion of residual T-cells. Interleukin-7 (IL-7) is known to stimulate the thymus to produce new T-cells and to allow circulating mature T-cells to expand, thereby playing a critical role in T-cell homeostasis. In the present study we demonstrated reduced levels of circulating IL-7 in a cross-section of RA patients. IL-7 production by bone marrow stromal cell cultures was also compromised in RA. To investigate whether such an IL-7 deficiency could account for the prolonged lymphopenia observed in RA following therapeutic lymphodepletion, we compared RA patients and patients with solid cancers treated with high-dose chemotherapy and autologous progenitor cell rescue. Chemotherapy rendered all patients similarly lymphopenic, but this was sustained in RA patients at 12 months, as compared with the reconstitution that occurred in cancer patients by 3–4 months. Both cohorts produced naïve T-cells containing T-cell receptor excision circles. The main distinguishing feature between the groups was a failure to expand peripheral T-cells in RA, particularly memory cells during the first 3 months after treatment. Most importantly, there was no increase in serum IL-7 levels in RA, as compared with a fourfold rise in non-RA control individuals at the time of lymphopenia. Our data therefore suggest that RA patients are relatively IL-7 deficient and that this deficiency is likely to be an important contributing factor to poor early T-cell reconstitution in RA following therapeutic lymphodepletion. Furthermore, in RA patients with stable, well controlled disease, IL-7 levels were positively correlated with the T-cell receptor excision circle content of CD4+ T-cells, demonstrating a direct effect of IL-7 on thymic activity in this cohort

Lake-size dependency of wind shear and convection as controls on gas exchange

High-frequency physical observations from 40 temperate lakes were used to examine the relative contributions of wind shear (u*) and convection (w*) to turbulence in the surface mixed layer. Seasonal patterns of u* and w* were dissimilar; u* was often highest in the spring, while w * increased throughout the summer to a maximum in early fall. Convection was a larger mixed-layer turbulence source than wind shear (u */w*-1 for lakes* and w* differ in temporal pattern and magnitude across lakes, both convection and wind shear should be considered in future formulations of lake-air gas exchange, especially for small lakes. © 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.Jordan S. Read, David P. Hamilton, Ankur R. Desai, Kevin C. Rose, Sally MacIntyre, John D. Lenters, Robyn L. Smyth, Paul C. Hanson, Jonathan J. Cole, Peter A. Staehr, James A. Rusak, Donald C. Pierson, Justin D. Brookes, Alo Laas, and Chin H. W

Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage

Long term treatment with metformin in patients with type 2 diabetes and risk of vitamin B-12 deficiency: randomised placebo controlled trial

Objectives To study the effects of metformin on the incidence of vitamin B-12 deficiency (<150 pmol/l), low concentrations of vitamin B-12 (150-220 pmol/l), and folate and homocysteine concentrations in patients with type 2 diabetes receiving treatment with insulin

Moisture effects on carbon and nitrogen emission from burning of wildland biomass

Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) released from biomass burning have multiple effects on the Earth's biogeochemical cycle, climate change, and ecosystem. These effects depend on the relative abundances of C and N species emitted, which vary with fuel type and combustion conditions. This study systematically investigates the emission characteristics of biomass burning under different fuel moisture contents, through controlled burning experiments with biomass and soil samples collected from a typical alpine forest in North America. Fuel moisture in general lowers combustion efficiency, shortens flaming phase, and introduces prolonged smoldering before ignition. It increases emission factors of incompletely oxidized C and N species, such as carbon monoxide (CO) and ammonia (NH&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;). Substantial particulate carbon and nitrogen (up to 4 times C in CO and 75% of N in NH&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;) were also generated from high-moisture fuels, maily associated with the pre-flame smoldering. This smoldering process emits particles that are larger and contain lower elemental carbon fractions than soot agglomerates commonly observed in flaming smoke. Hydrogen (H)/C ratio and optical properties of particulate matter from the high-moisture fuels show their resemblance to plant cellulous and brown carbon, respectively. These findings have implications for modeling biomass burning emissions and impacts

A comparison of baseline methodologies for 'Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation'

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A mechanism for emission reductions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) is very likely to be included in a future climate agreement. The choice of REDD baseline methodologies will crucially influence the environmental and economic effectiveness of the climate regime. We compare three different historical baseline methods and one innovative dynamic model baseline approach to appraise their applicability under a future REDD policy framework using a weighted multi-criteria analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results show that each baseline method has its specific strengths and weaknesses. Although the dynamic model allows for the best environmental and for comparatively good economic performance, its high demand for data and technical capacity limit the current applicability in many developing countries.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The adoption of a multi-tier approach will allow countries to select the baseline method best suiting their specific capabilities and data availability while simultaneously ensuring scientific transparency, environmental effectiveness and broad political support.</p