Black swans or dragon kings? A simple test for deviations from the power law

We develop a simple test for deviations from power law tails, which is based on the asymptotic properties of the empirical distribution function. We use this test to answer the question whether great natural disasters, financial crashes or electricity price spikes should be classified as dragon kings or 'only' as black swans

Nearly free electrons in the layered oxide superconductor Ag5Pb2O6

We present first measurements of quantum oscillations in the layered oxide superconductor Ag5Pb2O6. From a detailed angular and temperature dependent study of the dHvA effect we determine the electronic structure and demonstrate that the electron masses are very light, m^* is approximately equalt to 1.2 m_e. The Fermi surface we observe is essentially that expected of nearly-free electrons - establishing Ag5Pb2O6 as the first known example of a monovalent, nearly-free electron superconductor at ambient pressure.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

On weak convergence of locally periodic functions

We prove a generalization of the fact that periodic functions converge weakly to the mean value as the oscillation increases. Some convergence questions connected to locally periodic nonlinear boundary value problems are also considered.Comment: arxiv version is already officia

Withers vertical movement asymmetry in dressage horses walking in different head -neck positions with and without riders

The superimposed influences of different head and neck positions (HNPs) and rider effects on symmetry in sound horses have not been studied. Our aim was to investigate the effects of HNPs and rider on thesymmetry in minimum height of the withers at the walk. Seven high-level dressage horses were studied with and without rider in six HNPs: HNP1, free position; HNP2, dressage competition position; HNP3,flexed poll position; HNP4, over-flexed position; HNP5, extended raised position; and HNP6, forward downward position. Kinematic and vertical ground reaction force data were recorded during 15 s trialson an instrumented treadmill. In mixed models, difference in the minimal height of the withers in earlyleft vs right forelimb stance was modelled as dependent variable. The more restricted HNP3 (T-values2.62 to 1.98, 118 DF,P¼0.001 to<0.05) and HNP5 (P¼0.002 to<0.05) were generally less symmetrical while unridden and more symmetrical while ridden, compared with the free (HNP1) or forward downward (HNP6) positions. Both with and without rider, when the withers dropped lower in earlystance of one forelimb, this was associated with shorter protraction at the start of stance in the ipsilateral hind limb, and shorter stance overlaps between this hind limb and the other limbs during diagonalsupport, 3-limb support with two forelimbs and one hind limb, and ipsilateral support. HNP effects on withers movement asymmetry differed between unridden and ridden conditions. The considerablevariation between horses stresses the need for trainers to use individualized training programs to address horse asymmetry

Range of motion and between-measurement variation of spinal kinematics in sound horses at trot on the straight line and on the lunge

Clinical assessment of spinal motion in horses is part of many routine clinical exams but remains highly subjective. A prerequisite for the quantification of spinal motion is the assessment of the expected normal range of motion and variability of back kinematics. The aim of this study was to objectively quantify spinal kinematics and between-measurement,-surface and-day variation in owner-sound horses. In an observational study, twelve ownersound horses were trotted 12 times on four different paths (hard/soft straight line, soft lunge left and right). Measurements were divided over three days, with five repetitions on day one and two, and two repetitions on day three (recheck) which occurred 28-55 days later. Optical motion capture was used to collect kinematic data. Elements of the outcome were: 1) Ranges of Motion (ROM) with confidence intervals per path and surface, 2) a variability model to calculate between-measurement variation and test the effect of time, surface and path, 3) intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) to determine repeatability. ROM was lowest on the hard straight line. Cervical lateral bending was doubled on the left compared to the right lunge. Mean variation for the flexion-extension and lateral bending of the whole back were 0.8 and 1 degrees. Pelvic motion showed a variation of 1.0 (pitch), 0.7 (yaw) and 1.3 (roll) degrees. For these five parameters, a tendency for more variation on the hard surface and reduced variation with increased repetitions was observed. More variation was seen on the recheck (p&lt;0.001). ICC values for pelvic rotations were between 0.76 and 0.93, for the whole back flexion-extension and lateral bending between 0.51 and 0.91. Between-horse variation was substantially higher than within-horse variation. In conclusion, ROM and variation in spinal biomechanics are horse-specific and small, necessitating individual analysis and making subjective and objective clinical assessment of spinal kinematics challenging

Adaptation strategies of horses with induced forelimb lameness walking on a treadmill

Background There is a paucity of research describing the gait pattern of lame horses at the walk. Objectives To describe the changes in motion pattern and vertical ground reaction forces (GRFz) in horses with induced forelimb lameness at the walk and compare those changes with the changes observed at the trot. Study design Experimental study. Methods In 10 clinically sound Warmblood horses, moderate forelimb lameness was induced using a sole pressure model followed by trot and walk on a treadmill. Kinematic data were collected using 3D optical motion capture (OMC), and GRFz by an instrumented treadmill. Mixed models were used to compare sound baseline versus forelimb lameness (significance was set atP < .05). Results Lameness induction significantly reduced peak GRFz on the second force peak, and vertical impulse in the lame limb. Stride and stance duration in all limbs were reduced. Lameness significantly affected the vertical movement symmetry of the head and withers. Maximum limb retraction angle, fetlock extension and protraction speed were reduced in the lame limb. Body centre of mass (COM) translation was reduced in the side-to-side direction and increased in the vertical and fore-aft directions. Several compensatory kinetic and kinematic changes were observed in the nonlame limbs. The observed changes in both kinetics and kinematics were generally smaller at walk with fewer variables being affected, compared to the trot. Main limitations Only one degree and type of orthopaedic pain (sole pressure) was studied. Conclusions Compensatory strategies of forelimb lameness at the walk include alteration of several kinetic and kinematic parameters and have some specific patterns and inter-individual differences that are not seen at the trot. However, much like at the trot, head movement and forelimb vertical force symmetry seem to be the most useful parameters to detect forelimb lameness at walk

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normally distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalised assumption of normally distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to model distribution tails properly so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey in 2000 and combine GARCH-type models with the extreme value theory to estimate the tails of three financial index returns ¿ S&P 500, FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 ¿ representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are more accurate than those from conventional GARCH models assuming normal or Student¿s t distribution innovations when doing not only in-sample but also out-of-sample estimation. Moreover, these results are robust to alternative GARCH model specifications. The findings of this paper should be useful to investors in general, since their goal is to be able to forecast unforeseen price movements and take advantage of them by positioning themselves in the market according to these predictions

Psychological morbidity of celiac disease: a review of the literature

BACKGROUND: Celiac disease has been linked to decreased quality of life and certain mood disorders. The effect of the gluten free diet on these psychological aspects of the disease is still unclear. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this article is to review the literature on psychological morbidity of celiac disease. METHODS: We performed a PubMed search for the time period from 1900 until June 1, 2014, to identify papers on psychological aspects of celiac disease looking specifically at quality of life, anxiety, depression and fatigue. RESULTS: Anxiety, depression and fatigue are common complaints in patients with untreated celiac disease and contribute to lower quality of life. While aspects of these conditions may improve within a few months after starting a gluten-free diet, some patients continue to suffer from significant psychological morbidity. Psychological symptoms may affect the quality of life and the dietary adherence. CONCLUSION: Health care professionals need to be aware of the ongoing psychological burden of celiac disease in order to support patients with this disease