Winds of Planet Hosting Stars

The field of exoplanetary science is one of the most rapidly growing areas of astrophysical research. As more planets are discovered around other stars, new techniques have been developed that have allowed astronomers to begin to characterise them. Two of the most important factors in understanding the evolution of these planets, and potentially determining whether they are habitable, are the behaviour of the winds of the host star and the way in which they interact with the planet. The purpose of this project is to reconstruct the magnetic fields of planet hosting stars from spectropolarimetric observations, and to use these magnetic field maps to inform simulations of the stellar winds in those systems using the Block Adaptive Tree Solar-wind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code. The BATS-R-US code was originally written to investigate the behaviour of the Solar wind, and so has been altered to be used in the context of other stellar systems. These simulations will give information about the velocity, pressure and density of the wind outward from the host star. They will also allow us to determine what influence the winds will have on the space weather environment of the planet. This paper presents the preliminary results of these simulations for the star $\tau$ Bo\"otis, using a newly reconstructed magnetic field map based on previously published observations. These simulations show interesting structures in the wind velocity around the star, consistent with the complex topology of its magnetic field.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed proceedings of the 14th Australian Space Research Conference, held at the University of South Australia, 29th September - 1st October 201

Seasonal forecasting of groundwater levels in principal aquifers of the United Kingdom

To date, the majority of hydrological forecasting studies have focussed on using medium-range (3–15 days) weather forecasts to drive hydrological models and make predictions of future river flows. With recent developments in seasonal (1–3 months) weather forecast skill, such as those from the latest version of the UK Met Office global seasonal forecast system (GloSea5), there is now an opportunity to use similar methodologies to forecast groundwater levels in more slowly responding aquifers on seasonal timescales. This study uses seasonal rainfall forecasts and a lumped groundwater model to simulate groundwater levels at 21 locations in the United Kingdom up to three months into the future. The results indicate that the forecasts have skill; outperforming a persistence forecast and demonstrating reliability, resolution and discrimination. However, there is currently little to gain from using seasonal rainfall forecasts over using site climatology for this type of application. Furthermore, the forecasts are not able to capture extreme groundwater levels, primarily because of inadequacies in the driving rainfall forecasts. The findings also show that the origin of forecast skill, be it from the meteorological input, groundwater model or initial condition, is site specific and related to the groundwater response characteristics to rainfall and antecedent hydro-meteorological conditions

A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain

Skilful winter seasonal predictions for the North Atlantic circulation and northern Europe have now been demonstrated and the potential for seasonal hydrological forecasting in the UK is now being explored. One of the techniques being used combines seasonal rainfall forecasts provided by operational weather forecast systems with hydrological modelling tools to provide estimates of seasonal mean river flows up to a few months ahead. The work presented here shows how spatial information contained in a distributed hydrological model typically requiring high-resolution (daily or better) rainfall data can be used to provide an initial condition for a much simpler forecast model tailored to use low-resolution monthly rainfall forecasts. Rainfall forecasts (“hindcasts”) from the GloSea5 model (1996 to 2009) are used to provide the first assessment of skill in these national-scale flow forecasts. The skill in the combined modelling system is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and compared to what might be achieved using other approaches such as use of an ensemble of historical rainfall in a hydrological model, or a simple flow persistence forecast. The analysis indicates that only limited forecast skill is achievable for Spring and Summer seasonal hydrological forecasts; however, Autumn and Winter flows can be reasonably well forecast using (ensemble mean) rainfall forecasts based on either GloSea5 forecasts or historical rainfall (the preferred type of forecast depends on the region). Flow forecasts using ensemble mean GloSea5 rainfall perform most consistently well across Britain, and provide the most skilful forecasts overall at the 3-month lead time. Much of the skill (64 %) in the 1-month ahead seasonal flow forecasts can be attributed to the hydrological initial condition (particularly in regions with a significant groundwater contribution to flows), whereas for the 3-month ahead lead time, GloSea5 forecasts account for  ∼ 70 % of the forecast skill (mostly in areas of high rainfall to the north and west) and only 30 % of the skill arises from hydrological memory (typically groundwater-dominated areas). Given the high spatial heterogeneity in typical patterns of UK rainfall and evaporation, future development of skilful spatially distributed seasonal forecasts could lead to substantial improvements in seasonal flow forecast capability, potentially benefitting practitioners interested in predicting hydrological extremes, not only in the UK but also across Europe

Long-range forecasts of UK winter hydrology

Seasonal river flow forecasts are beneficial for planning agricultural activities, river navigation, and for management of reservoirs for public water supply and hydropower generation. In the United Kingdom (UK), skilful seasonal river flow predictions have previously been limited to catchments in lowland (southern and eastern) regions. Here we show that skilful long-range forecasts of winter flows can now be achieved across the whole of the UK. This is due to a remarkable geographical complementarity between the regional geological and meteorological sources of predictability for river flows. Forecast skill derives from the hydrogeological memory of antecedent conditions in southern and eastern parts of the UK and from meteorological predictability in northern and western areas. Specifically, it is the predictions of the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic that provides the skill at the seasonal timescale. In addition, significant levels of skill in predicting the frequency of winter high flow events is demonstrated, which has the potential to allow flood adaptation measures to be put in place

Orbital eccentricities of binary systems with a former AGB star

Many binary stellar systems in which the primary star is beyond the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) evolutionary phase show significant orbital eccentricities whereas current binary interaction models predict their orbits to be circularised. We analyse how the orbital parameters in a system are modified under mass loss and mass exchange among its binary components and propose a model for enhanced mass-loss from the AGB star due to tidal interaction with its companion, which allows a smooth transition between the wind and Roche-lobe overflow mass-loss regimes. We explicitly follow its effect along the orbit on the change of eccentricity and orbital semi-major axis, as well as the effect of accretion by the companion. We calculate timescales for the variation of these orbital parameters and compare them to the tidal circularisation timescale. We find that in many cases, due to the enhanced mass loss of the AGB component at orbital phases closer to the periastron, the net eccentricity growth rate in one orbit is comparable to the rate of tidal circularisation. We show that with this eccentricity enhancing mechanism it is possible to reproduce the orbital period and eccentricity of the Sirius system, which under the standard assumptions of binary interaction is expected to be circularised. We also show that this mechanism may provide an explanation for the eccentricities of most barium star systems, which are expected to be circularised due to tidal dissipation. By proposing a tidally enhanced model of mass loss from AGB stars we find a mechanism which efficiently works against the tidal circularisation of the orbit, which explains the significant eccentricities observed in binary systems containing a white dwarf and a less evolved companion, such as Sirius and systems with barium stars.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics on 24th of October of 200

Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere

Published© 2016 Royal Meteorological Society. We investigate seasonal forecasts of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their relationship with the stratosphere. Climatological frequencies of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events are well represented and the predicted risk of events varies between 25 and 90% from winter to winter, indicating predictability beyond the deterministic range. The risk of SSW and SPV events relates to predicted NAO as expected, with NAO shifts of -6.5 and +4.8hPa in forecast members containing SSW and SPV events. Most striking of all is that forecast skill of the surface winter NAO vanishes from these hindcasts if members containing SSW events are excluded.This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101), the UK Public Weather Service research program and the European Union Framework 7 SPECS project. The contribution of AYK is funded by FMI’s tenure track program and the Academy of Finland under grant 286298

Constraining the mass transfer in massive binaries through progenitor evolution models of Wolf-Rayet+O binaries

Since close WR+O binaries are the result of a strong interaction of both stars in massive close binary systems, they can be used to constrain the highly uncertain mass and angular momentum budget during the major mass transfer phase. We explore the progenitor evolution of the three best suited WR+O binaries HD 90657, HD 186943 and HD 211853, which are characterized by a WR/O mass ratio of $\sim$0.5 and periods of 6..10 days. We are doing so at three different levels of approximation: predicting the massive binary evolution through simple mass loss and angular momentum loss estimates, through full binary evolution models with parametrized mass transfer efficiency, and through binary evolution models including rotation of both components and a physical model which allows to compute mass and angular momentum loss from the binary system as function of time during the mass transfer process. All three methods give consistently the same answers. Our results show that, if these systems formed through stable mass transfer, their initial periods were smaller than their current ones, which implies that mass transfer has started during the core hydrogen burning phase of the initially more massive star. Furthermore, the mass transfer in all three cases must have been highly non-conservative, with on average only $\sim$10% of the transferred mass being retained by the mass receiving star. This result gives support to our system mass and angular momentum loss model, which predicts that, in the considered systems, about 90% of the overflowing matter is expelled by the rapid rotation of the mass receiver close to the $\Omega$-limit, which is reached through the accretion of the remaining 10%.Comment: accepted A&A version of paper with better quality plots available at http://www.astro.uu.nl/~petrovi

SPHRAY: A Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics Ray Tracer for Radiative Transfer

We introduce SPHRAY, a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) ray tracer designed to solve the 3D, time dependent, radiative transfer (RT) equations for arbitrary density fields. The SPH nature of SPHRAY makes the incorporation of separate hydrodynamics and gravity solvers very natural. SPHRAY relies on a Monte Carlo (MC) ray tracing scheme that does not interpolate the SPH particles onto a grid but instead integrates directly through the SPH kernels. Given initial conditions and a description of the sources of ionizing radiation, the code will calculate the non-equilibrium ionization state (HI, HII, HeI, HeII, HeIII, e) and temperature (internal energy/entropy) of each SPH particle. The sources of radiation can include point like objects, diffuse recombination radiation, and a background field from outside the computational volume. The MC ray tracing implementation allows for the quick introduction of new physics and is parallelization friendly. A quick Axis Aligned Bounding Box (AABB) test taken from computer graphics applications allows for the acceleration of the raytracing component. We present the algorithms used in SPHRAY and verify the code by performing all the test problems detailed in the recent Radiative Transfer Comparison Project of Iliev et. al. The Fortran 90 source code for SPHRAY and example SPH density fields are made available on a companion website (www.sphray.org).Comment: 17 pages, 16 figures, submitted to MNRAS, comments welcome. source code, high res. figures and examples can be found at http://www.sphray.or