Bearing the Cost of Stored Carbon Leakage

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is considered a key technology for stabilizing climate change. However, leakage of CO2 from stored carbon can potentially undermine the value of carbon storage as a mitigation option. Thus, monitoring and verifiability of CO2 storage should be encouraged through policy provisions such as accounting and pricing of leaked emissions. Here we assess different institutional and economic mechanisms for accounting for carbon leakage. Using an integrated assessment model we quantify the impacts on the climate, the economy and the mitigation strategies. Results show that carbon leakage can reduce the share of fossil based CCS by up to 35%, if it is controlled and correctly priced. Biomass based CCS is less affected. Accounting for leakage leads to an increase of climate policy costs of up to 0.4 percentage points due to increased emissions

Delegation and public pressure in a threshold public goods game

Many public goods cannot be provided directly by interested parties (e.g. citizens), as they entail decision-making at nested hierarchical scales: at a lower level individuals elect a representative, while at a higher scale elected delegates decide on the provision level, with some degree of scrutiny from their constituency. Furthermore, many such decisions involve uncertainty about the magnitude of the contribution that is needed for the good to be provided (or bad to be avoided). In such circumstances delegates can serve as important vehicles for coordination by aggregating societal preferences for provision. Yet, the role of delegation in threshold public goods games is understudied. We contrast the behavior of delegates to that of self-representing individuals in the avoidance of a public bad in an experimental setting. We randomly assign twelve subjects into four teams and ask each team to elect a delegate via majority voting. The elected delegates play several variants of a one-shot public goods game in which losses can ensue if the sum of their contributions falls short of a threshold. We find that when delegation is coupled with a mild form of public pressure, it has a significantly negative effect on contributions, even though the non-delegates can only signal their preferred levels of public good contributions. The reason is that delegates give more weight to the least cooperative suggestion: they focus on the lower of the two public good contributions recommended by their teammates

An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways

The feasibility of large-scale biological CO2 removal to achieve stringent climate targets remains unclear. Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) offers an alternative negative emissions technology (NET) option. Here we conduct the first inter-model comparison on the role of DACCS in 1.5 and 2°C scenarios, under a variety of techno-economic assumptions. Deploying DACCS significantly reduces mitigation costs, and it complements rather than substitutes other NETs. The key factor limiting DACCS deployment is the rate at which it can be scaled up. Our scenarios’ average DACCS scale-up rates of 1.5 GtCO2/yr would require considerable sorbent production and up to 300 EJ/yr of energy input by 2100. The risk of assuming that DACCS can be deployed at scale, and finding it to be subsequently unavailable, leads to a global temperature overshoot of up to 0.8°C. DACCS should therefore be developed and deployed alongside, rather than instead of, other mitigation options

Insulin and GLP-1 infusions demonstrate the onset of adipose-specific insulin resistance in a large fasting mammal: potential glucogenic role for GLP-1.

Prolonged food deprivation increases lipid oxidation and utilization, which may contribute to the onset of the insulin resistance associated with fasting. Because insulin resistance promotes the preservation of glucose and oxidation of fat, it has been suggested to be an adaptive response to food deprivation. However, fasting mammals exhibit hypoinsulinemia, suggesting that the insulin resistance-like conditions they experience may actually result from reduced pancreatic sensitivity to glucose/capacity to secrete insulin. To determine whether fasting results in insulin resistance or in pancreatic dysfunction, we infused early- and late-fasted seals (naturally adapted to prolonged fasting) with insulin (0.065 U/kg), and a separate group of late-fasted seals with low (10 pM/kg) or high (100 pM/kg) dosages of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) immediately following a glucose bolus (0.5g/kg), and measured the systemic and cellular responses. Because GLP-1 facilitates glucose-stimulated insulin secretion, these infusions provide a method to assess pancreatic insulin-secreting capacity. Insulin infusions increased the phosphorylation of insulin receptor and Akt in adipose and muscle of early and late fasted seals; however the timing of the signaling response was blunted in adipose of late fasted seals. Despite the dose-dependent increases in insulin and increased glucose clearance (high dose), both GLP-1 dosages produced increases in plasma cortisol and glucagon, which may have contributed to the glucogenic role of GLP-1. Results suggest that fasting induces adipose-specific insulin resistance in elephant seal pups, while maintaining skeletal muscle insulin sensitivity, and therefore suggests that the onset of insulin resistance in fasting mammals is an evolved response to cope with prolonged food deprivation

A risk-seeking future

The 2014 IPCC Assessment expresses doubt that the global surface temperature increase will remain within the 2 °C target without deploying risky carbon-capturing or solar radiation-deflecting technologies. New behavioural research suggests that, if the IPCC is right, citizens and policymakers will support such risk-taking

Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock: Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event

Higher temperatures expected by midcentury increase the risk of shocks to crop production, while the interconnected nature of the current global food system functions to spread the impact of localized production shocks throughout the world. In this study, we analyze the global potential impact of a present-day event of equivalent magnitude to the US Dust Bowl, modeling the ways in which a sudden decline in US wheat production could cascade through the global network of agricultural trade. We use observations of country-level production, reserves, and trade data in a Food Shock Cascade model to explore trade adjustments and country-level inventory changes in response to a major, multiyear production decline. We find that a 4-year decline in wheat production of the same proportional magnitude as occurred during the Dust Bowl greatly reduces both wheat supply and reserves in the United States and propagates through the global trade network. By year 4 of the event, US wheat exports fall from 90.5 trillion kcal before the drought to 48 trillion to 52 trillion kcal, and the United States exhausts 94% of its reserves. As a result of reduced US exports, other countries meet their needs by leveraging their own reserves, leading to a 31% decline in wheat reserves globally. These findings demonstrate that an extreme production decline would lead to substantial supply shortfalls in both the United States and in other countries, where impacts outside the United States strongly depend on a country's reserves and on its relative position in the global trade network

Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs: An integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of including adaptation and residual damage in equity considerations by determining how the allocation of emission allowances would change to counteract regional differences in total climate costs, defined as the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual damage. We compare emission levels resulting from a global carbon tax with two allocations of emission allowances under a global cap-and-trade system: one equating mitigation costs and one equating total climate costs as share of GDP. To account for uncertainties in both mitigation and adaptation, we use a model-comparison approach employing two alternative modeling frameworks with different damage, adaptation cost, and mitigation cost estimates, and look at two different climate goals. Despite the identified model uncertainties, we derive unambiguous results on the change in emission allowance allocation that could lessen the unequal distribution of adaptation costs and residual damages through the financial transfers associated with emission trading

Churg-Strauss syndrome: outcome and long-term follow-up of 38 patients from a single Italian centre

Objective: This study was aimed at verifying any potential correlation between anti-myeloperoxidase antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (ANCA-MPO) and clinical features and outcome indices in Churg-Strauss Syndrome (CSS). Methods: Thirhty-eight Churg-Strauss syndrome patients were selected from the medical records of all vasculitis patients attending the Rheumatology and Immunology Unit at the Department of Internal Medicine of the University of Pisa in the decades between 1989 and 2008. Data were analysed retrospectively. Statistical analyses of the results were carried out using the Mann-Whitney test to determine the correlations between the clinical and serological parameters. Qualitative variables were compared using contingency table analysis and Fisher's exact test. Results: ANCA-MPO were detected in15/38 (39%) patients. Positive ANCA status was associated with peripheral neuropathy (p=0.0006), whereas negative ANCA status was associated with lung involvement (p=0.002). Relapses were strongly associated with positive ANCA status (p=0.01) and with an increase in- or a reappearence of ANCA-MPO levels (p=0.006). Finally, ANCA-MPO were significantly associated with neurological damage (p=0.003). Conclusions: The presence or absence of ANCA-MPO identify different clinical subsets in CSS. Overall, ANCA-MPO appears as a useful tool in the monitoring of CSS and in particular a good predictor of CSS relapse