Decision process in large-scale crisis management

International audienceThis paper deals with the decision-aiding process in large-scale crisis such as natural disasters. It consists in four phases: decision context characterization, system modelling, aggregation and integration. The elements of the context, such as crisis level, risk situation, decision-maker problem issue are defined through the characterization phase. At the feared event occurrence, these elements will interact on a target system. Through the model on this system, the consequences to stakes could be assessed or estimated. The presented aggregation approaches will allow taking the right decisions. The architecture of a Decision Support System is presented in the integration phase

Evaluation of Kenya’s readiness to transition from sentinel surveillance to routine HIV testing for antenatal clinic-based HIV surveillance

BACKGROUND: Sentinel surveillance for HIV among women attending antenatal clinics using unlinked anonymous testing is a cornerstone of HIV surveillance in sub-Saharan Africa. Increased use of routine antenatal HIV testing allows consideration of using these programmatic data rather than sentinel surveillance data for HIV surveillance. METHODS: To gauge Kenya’s readiness to discontinue sentinel surveillance, we evaluated whether recommended World Health Organization standards were fulfilled by conducting data and administrative reviews of antenatal clinics that offered both routine testing and sentinel surveillance in 2010. RESULTS: The proportion of tests that were HIV-positive among women aged 15–49 years was 6.2 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 4.6–7.7 %] in sentinel surveillance and 6.5 % (95 % CI 5.1–8.0 %) in routine testing. The agreement of HIV test results between sentinel surveillance and routine testing was 98.0 %, but 24.1 % of specimens that tested positive in sentinel surveillance were recorded as negative in routine testing. Data completeness was moderate, with HIV test results recorded for 87.8 % of women who received routine testing. CONCLUSIONS: Additional preparation is required before routine antenatal HIV testing data can supplant sentinel surveillance in Kenya. As the quality of program data has markedly improved since 2010 a repeat evaluation of the use of routine antenatal HIV testing data in lieu of ANC sentinel surveillance is recommended

Decline in HIV Prevalence among Young Women in Zambia: National-Level Estimates of Trends Mask Geographical and Socio-Demographic Differences

Background: A decline in HIV incidence has been reported in Zambia and a number of other sub-Saharan countries. The trend of HIV prevalence among young people is a good marker of HIV incidence. In this study, different data sources are used to examine geographical and sub-population group differentials in HIV prevalence trends among men and women aged 15–24 years in Zambia. Design and Methods: We analysed ANC data for women aged 15–24 years from 22 sentinel sites consistently covered in the period 1994–2008, and HIV data for young men and women aged 15–24 years from the ZDHS 2001/2 and 2007. In addition, we systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles that have reported findings on HIV prevalence and incidence among young people. Findings: Overall trends of the ANC surveillance data indicated a substantial HIV prevalence decline among young women in both urban and rural areas. However, provincial declines differed substantially, i.e. between 10 % and 68 % among urban women, and from stability to 86 % among rural women. Prevalence declines were steeper among those with the highest educational attainments than among the least educated. The ZDHS data indicated a significant reduction in prevalence between the two survey rounds among young women only. Provincial-level ZDHS changes were difficult to assess because the sample sizes were small. ANC-based trend patterns were consistent with those observed in PMTCT-based data (2002

The effects of long-term total parenteral nutrition on gut mucosal immunity in children with short bowel syndrome: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Short bowel syndrome (SBS) is defined as the malabsorptive state that often follows massive resection of the small intestine. Most cases originate in the newborn period and result from congenital anomalies. It is associated with a high morbidity, is potentially lethal and often requires months, sometimes years, in the hospital and home on total parenteral nutrition (TPN). Long-term survival without parenteral nutrition depends upon establishing enteral nutrition and the process of intestinal adaptation through which the remaining small bowel gradually increases its absorptive capacity. The purpose of this article is to perform a descriptive systematic review of the published articles on the effects of TPN on the intestinal immune system investigating whether long-term TPN induces bacterial translocation, decreases secretory immunoglobulin A (S-IgA), impairs intestinal immunity, and changes mucosal architecture in children with SBS. METHODS: The databases of OVID, such as MEDLINE and CINAHL, Cochran Library, and Evidence-Based Medicine were searched for articles published from 1990 to 2001. Search terms were total parenteral nutrition, children, bacterial translocation, small bowel syndrome, short gut syndrome, intestinal immunity, gut permeability, sepsis, hyperglycemia, immunonutrition, glutamine, enteral tube feeding, and systematic reviews. The goal was to include all clinical studies conducted in children directly addressing the effects of TPN on gut immunity. RESULTS: A total of 13 studies were identified. These 13 studies included a total of 414 infants and children between the ages approximately 4 months to 17 years old, and 16 healthy adults as controls; and they varied in design and were conducted in several disciplines. The results were integrated into common themes. Five themes were identified: 1) sepsis, 2) impaired immune functions: In vitro studies, 3) mortality, 4) villous atrophy, 5) duration of dependency on TPN after bowel resection. CONCLUSION: Based on this exhaustive literature review, there is no direct evidence suggesting that TPN promotes bacterial overgrowth, impairs neutrophil functions, inhibits blood's bactericidal effect, causes villous atrophy, or causes to death in human model. The hypothesis relating negative effects of TPN on gut immunity remains attractive, but unproven. Enteral nutrition is cheaper, but no safer than TPN. Based on the current evidence, TPN seems to be safe and a life saving solution