The Response of Big Sagebrush (\u3ci\u3eArtemisia tridentata\u3c/i\u3e) to Interannual Climate Variation Changes Across Its Range

Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species\u27 range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species\u27 range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8,175 observations of year‐to‐year change in sagebrush cover or production from 131 monitoring sites in western North America. We coupled these observations with seasonal weather data for each site and analyzed the effects of spring through fall temperatures and fall through spring accumulated precipitation on annual changes in sagebrush abundance. Sensitivity to annual temperature variation supported our hypothesis: years with above average temperatures were beneficial to sagebrush in colder locations and detrimental to sagebrush in hotter locations. In contrast, sensitivity to precipitation did not change significantly across the distribution of sagebrush. This pattern of responses suggests that regional abundance of this species may be more limited by temperature than by precipitation. We also found important differences in how the ecologically distinct subspecies of sagebrush responded to the effects of precipitation and temperature. Our model predicts that a short‐term temperature increase could produce an increase in sagebrush cover at the cold edge of its range and a decrease in cover at the warm edge of its range. This prediction is qualitatively consistent with predictions from species distribution models for sagebrush based on spatial occurrence data, but it provides new mechanistic insight and helps estimate how much and how fast sagebrush cover may change within its range

Ujjwala at 6 crores: Impact on Cooking Energy Transition and Climate Change

The Pradhan Mantri Ujjawala Yojana (PMUY) has been praised as a landmark initiative that has empowered six crore poor rural women to buy Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as the primary source for cooking. Having an LPG stove in the kitchen has always been an aspiration, which was unaffordable to many, until the capital cost support became available through PMUY in the form of subsidies and a loan facility. However, public debate over whether the beneficiaries are purchasing enough refill cylinders has emerged. In this article we analyze aggregated LPG refill numbers of PMUY beneficiaries by state, and discuss this within the larger perspective of clean cooking transitions and climate change. The pertinent question that remains to be answered is whether the Indian rural population is making a transition towards cleaner fuels like LPG though the advent of PMUY. Therefore it is essential to understand the refill rates of PMUY beneficiaries. In section 2 we discuss inter-state differences in PMUY refill trends and suggest recommendations for policy. Moreover, it is also necessary to also examine the potential impact of LPG consumption by PMUY beneficiaries on the environment(section 3)

Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: Global Scenarios and Governance Implications

This report combines a global assessment of energy scenarios up to 2050, case studies of energy access and low-carbon efforts around the world, and a review of the technological shifts, investments, policies and governance structures needed to bring energy to all. How can the world meet energy needs for human and economic development in a way that is compatible with sustainable development? What is required is nothing less than a massive transformation of energy systems and rapid turnovers of infrastructure and technology, all of which must be achieved while staying within climate and resource constraints. Though the challenge is great, the energy and sustainability scenarios in this report show that it can be met. However, while these scenarios sketch out transformation pathways in broad strokes, the devil is in the detail. This study also explores how to successfully implement change, via case studies of energy transformation and reviews of policy mechanisms and governance frameworks. Over the coming decade, policymakers around the world need to build a shared development agenda to address these challenges. It is hoped that this study will help to lay the foundations for such an effort

COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts

Policymakers involved in climate change negotiations are key users of climate science. It is therefore vital to understand how to communicate scientific information most effectively to this group. We tested how a unique sample of policymakers and negotiators at the Paris COP21 conference update their beliefs on year 2100 global mean temperature increases in response to a statistical summary of climate models' forecasts. We randomized the way information was provided across participants using three different formats similar to those used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. In spite of having received all available relevant scientific information, policymakers adopted such information very conservatively, assigning it less weight than their own prior beliefs. However, providing individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range was more effective in mitigating such inertia. The experiment was repeated with a population of European MBA students who, despite starting from similar priors, reported conditional probabilities closer to the provided models' forecasts than policymakers. There was also no effect of presentation format in the MBA sample. These results highlight the importance of testing visualization tools directly on the population of interest

Security lies in obedience - Voices of young women of a slum in Pakistan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Existing literature shows that young people, especially women, have poor knowledge about sexuality and reproductive health. Many of the difficulties young women experience are related to beliefs and expectations in society making them more vulnerable to reproductive ill health. The objective of this study was to explore how young women living in a slum in Islamabad are prepared for marriage and how they understand and perceive their transition to marriage and the start of sexual and childbearing activity.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty qualitative interviews and three focus group discussions were conducted with young women residing in a slum of Islamabad. Content analysis was used to explore how the participants represented and explained their situation and how decisions about their marriage were made.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The main theme identified was <it>security lies in obedience</it>. The two sub-themes contributing to the main theme were <it>socialization into submissiveness </it>and <it>transition into adulthood in silence</it>. The theme and the sub-themes illustrate the situation of young women in a poor setting in Pakistan.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study demonstrates how, in a culture of silence around sexuality, young women's socialization into submissiveness lays the foundation for the lack of control over the future reproductive health that they experience.</p

Effects of apparent temperature on daily mortality in Lisbon and Oporto, Portugal

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Evidence that elevated temperatures can lead to increased mortality is well documented, with population vulnerability being location specific. However, very few studies have been conducted that assess the effects of temperature on daily mortality in urban areas in Portugal.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this paper time-series analysis was used to model the relationship between mean apparent temperature and daily mortality during the warm season (April to September) in the two largest urban areas in Portugal: Lisbon and Oporto. We used generalized additive Poisson regression models, adjusted for day of week and season.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our results show that in Lisbon, a 1°C increase in mean apparent temperature is associated with a 2.1% (95%CI: 1.6, 2.5), 2.4% (95%CI: 1.7, 3.1) and 1.7% (95%CI: 0.1, 3.4) increase in all-causes, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. In Oporto the increase was 1.5% (95%CI: 1.0, 1.9), 2.1% (95%CI: 1.3, 2.9) and 2.7% (95%CI: 1.2, 4.3) respectively. In both cities, this increase was greater for the group >65 years.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Even without extremes in apparent temperature, we observed an association between temperature and daily mortality in Portugal. Additional research is needed to allow for better assessment of vulnerability within populations in Portugal in order to develop more effective heat-related morbidity and mortality public health programs.</p

Increased importance of methane reduction for a 1.5 degree target

To understand the importance of methane on the levels of carbon emission reductions required to achieve temperature goals, a processed-based approach is necessary rather than reliance on the Transient Climate Response to Emissions. We show that plausible levels of methane (CH4) mitigation can make a substantial difference to the feasibility of achieving the Paris climate targets through increasing the allowable carbon emissions. This benefit is enhanced by the indirect effects of CH4 on ozone (O3). Here the differing effects of CH4 and CO2 on land carbon storage, including the effects of surface O3, lead to an additional increase in the allowable carbon emissions with CH4 mitigation. We find a simple robust relationship between the change in the 2100 CH4 concentration and the extra allowable cumulative carbon emissions between now and 2100 (0.27 ± 0.05 GtC per ppb CH4). This relationship is independent of modelled climate sensitivity and precise temperature target, although later mitigation of CH4 reduces its value and thus methane reduction effectiveness. Up to 12% of this increase in allowable emissions is due to the effect of surface ozone. We conclude early mitigation of CH4 emissions would significantly increase the feasibility of stabilising global warming below 1.5C, alongside having co-benefits for human and ecosystem health

Energy security and shifting modes of governance

The concept of energy security fits uneasily into contemporary security debates. It is neither a clearly traditional nor a fully ‘non-traditional’ security issue. There are also limits to the social constructedness of the concept. This article argues that, while it is important to identify the differing securitizations of energy, these must be contextualized within the material realities and the differing historical modes of governance of the political economy of resources. This is essential for understanding the differing meanings accorded to energy security, the shifting modes through which energy is governed, and the extent to which energy security concerns drive international politics. In this context, contemporary concerns over energy security have both material and ideological dimensions: anxiety over the dual shift of power from West to East and from resource-importing to resource-exporting countries; and concern over the normative weakening of the neo-liberal mode of energy governance