Mechanism for potential strengthening of Atlantic overturning prior to collapse

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) carries large amounts of heat into the North Atlantic influencing climate regionally as well as globally. Palaeo-records and simulations with comprehensive climate models suggest that the positive salt-advection feedback may yield a threshold behaviour of the system. That is to say that beyond a certain amount of freshwater flux into the North Atlantic, no meridional overturning circulation can be sustained. Concepts of monitoring the AMOC and identifying its vicinity to the threshold rely on the fact that the volume flux defining the AMOC will be reduced when approaching the threshold. Here we advance conceptual models that have been used in a paradigmatic way to understand the AMOC, by introducing a density-dependent parameterization for the Southern Ocean eddies. This additional degree of freedom uncovers a mechanism by which the AMOC can increase with additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic, before it reaches the threshold and collapses: an AMOC that is mainly wind-driven will have a constant upwelling as long as the Southern Ocean winds do not change significantly. The downward transport of tracers occurs either in the northern sinking regions or through Southern Ocean eddies. If freshwater is transported, either atmospherically or via horizontal gyres, from the low to high latitudes, this would reduce the eddy transport and by continuity increase the northern sinking which defines the AMOC until a threshold is reached at which the AMOC cannot be sustained. If dominant in the real ocean this mechanism would have significant consequences for monitoring the AMOC

Clustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure

Large-scale transitions in societies are associated with both individual behavioural change and restructuring of the social network. These two factors have often been considered independently, yet recent advances in social network research challenge this view. Here we show that common features of societal marginalization and clustering emerge naturally during transitions in a co-evolutionary adaptive network model. This is achieved by explicitly considering the interplay between individual interaction and a dynamic network structure in behavioural selection. We exemplify this mechanism by simulating how smoking behaviour and the network structure get reconfigured by changing social norms. Our results are consistent with empirical findings: The prevalence of smoking was reduced, remaining smokers were preferentially connected among each other and formed increasingly marginalised clusters. We propose that self-amplifying feedbacks between individual behaviour and dynamic restructuring of the network are main drivers of the transition. This generative mechanism for co-evolution of individual behaviour and social network structure may apply to a wide range of examples beyond smoking.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure

Fracture-induced softening for large-scale ice dynamics

Floating ice shelves can exert a retentive and hence stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet of Antarctica. However, this effect has been observed to diminish by the dynamic effects of fracture processes within the protective ice shelves, leading to accelerated ice flow and hence to a sea-level contribution. In order to account for the macroscopic effect of fracture processes on large-scale viscous ice dynamics (i.e., ice-shelf scale) we apply a continuum representation of fractures and related fracture growth into the prognostic Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) and compare the results to observations. To this end we introduce a higher order accuracy advection scheme for the transport of the two-dimensional fracture density across the regular computational grid. Dynamic coupling of fractures and ice flow is attained by a reduction of effective ice viscosity proportional to the inferred fracture density. This formulation implies the possibility of non-linear threshold behavior due to self-amplified fracturing in shear regions triggered by small variations in the fracture-initiation threshold. As a result of prognostic flow simulations, sharp across-flow velocity gradients appear in fracture-weakened regions. These modeled gradients compare well in magnitude and location with those in observed flow patterns. This model framework is in principle expandable to grounded ice streams and provides simple means of investigating climate-induced effects on fracturing (e.g., hydro fracturing) and hence on the ice flow. It further constitutes a physically sound basis for an enhanced fracture-based calving parameterization

Solution of a Model for the Oceanic Pycnocline Depth: Scaling of Overturning Strength and Meridional Pressure Difference

We present an analysis of the model by Gnanadesikan [1999] for the pycnocline depth in the ocean. An analytic solution for the overturning strength as a function of the meridional pressure difference is derived and used to discuss their mutual scaling. We show that scaling occurs only in two unphysical regimes of the model. In the absence of the Southern Ocean (SO) processes, i.e. for a northern overturning cell, the volume transport is proportional to the square root of the pressure difference. Linear scaling is seen when the overturning is restricted entirely to the SO, i.e. when no northern downwelling exists. For comparison, we present simulations with the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3$\alpha$ which show linear scaling over a large regime of pressure differences in the North Atlantic (NA). We conclude that the pycnocline model is not able to reproduce the linear scaling between its two central variables, pressure and volume transport.Comment: Geophysical Research Letters (2004), accepted. See also http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~ander

Parameterization for subgrid-scale motion of ice-shelf calving fronts

A parameterization for the motion of ice-shelf fronts on a Cartesian grid in finite-difference land-ice models is presented. The scheme prevents artificial thinning of the ice shelf at its edge, which occurs due to the finite resolution of the model. The intuitive numerical implementation diminishes numerical dispersion at the ice front and enables the application of physical boundary conditions to improve the calculation of stress and velocity fields throughout the ice-sheet-shelf system. Numerical properties of this subgrid modification are assessed in the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) for different geometries in one and two horizontal dimensions and are verified against an analytical solution in a flow-line setup

Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models

The possibility of an impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. Future projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP-3) showed a wide range of trends with varying magnitude and sign across models. Here the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is evaluated in 20 CMIP-5 models for the period 1850 to 2100. In the new generation of climate models, a consistent increase in seasonal mean rainfall during the summer monsoon periods arises. All models simulate stronger seasonal mean rainfall in the future compared to the historic period under the strongest warming scenario RCP-8.5. Increase in seasonal mean rainfall is the largest for the RCP-8.5 scenario compared to other RCPs. Most of the models show a northward shift in monsoon circulation by the end of the 21st century compared to the historic period under the RCP-8.5 scenario. The interannual variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall also shows a consistent positive trend under unabated global warming. Since both the long-term increase in monsoon rainfall as well as the increase in interannual variability in the future is robust across a wide range of models, some confidence can be attributed to these projected trends

Bi-Laplacian Growth Patterns in Disordered Media

Experiments in quasi 2-dimensional geometry (Hele Shaw cells) in which a fluid is injected into a visco-elastic medium (foam, clay or associating-polymers) show patterns akin to fracture in brittle materials, very different from standard Laplacian growth patterns of viscous fingering. An analytic theory is lacking since a pre-requisite to describing the fracture of elastic material is the solution of the bi-Laplace rather than the Laplace equation. In this Letter we close this gap, offering a theory of bi-Laplacian growth patterns based on the method of iterated conformal maps.Comment: Submitted to PRL. For further information see http://www.weizmann.ac.il/chemphys/ander

Stress field around arbitrarily shaped cracks in two-dimensional elastic materials

The calculation of the stress field around an arbitrarily shaped crack in an infinite two-dimensional elastic medium is a mathematically daunting problem. With the exception of few exactly soluble crack shapes the available results are based on either perturbative approaches or on combinations of analytic and numerical techniques. We present here a general solution of this problem for any arbitrary crack. Along the way we develop a method to compute the conformal map from the exterior of a circle to the exterior of a line of arbitrary shape, offering it as a superior alternative to the classical Schwartz-Cristoffel transformation. Our calculation results in an accurate estimate of the full stress field and in particular of the stress intensity factors K_I and K_{II} and the T-stress which are essential in the theory of fracture.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, submitted for PR

Consistent increase in East Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall and its variability under climate change over China in CMIP6

The East Asian Monsoon (EAM) dominates the climate over the densely populated region of eastern China and adjacent regions and therefore influences a fifth of the world's population. Thus, it is highly relevant to assess the changes in the central characteristics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) under future warming in the latest generation of coupled climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We apply a set of selection criteria to 34 CMIP6 models to identify the six best performing (TOP6) models that best capture the EASM in the reference period 1995–2014. All of these models project an increase in June–August rainfall independent of the underlying emission scenario. The multi-model mean increase is 16.5 % under SSP5-8.5, 11.8 % under SSP3-7.0, 12.7 % under SSP2-4.5 and 9.3 % under SSP1-2.6 in the period 2081–2100 compared to 1995–2014. For China, the projected monsoon increase is slightly higher (12.6 % under SSP1-2.6 and 18.1 % under SSP5-8.5). The EASM rainfall will particularly intensify in southeastern China, Taiwan and North Korea. The multi-model mean indicates a linear relationship of the EASM rainfall depending on the global mean temperature that is relatively independent of the underlying scenario: per degree of global warming, the rainfall is projected to increase by 0.17 mm d−1, which refers to 3.1 % of rainfall in the reference period. It is thus predominately showing a “wet regions get wetter” pattern. The changes in the wind fields in the region are relatively small indicating the minor importance of dynamic factors, while pointing towards thermodynamic factors as responsible for the rainfall increase. The interannual variability is also robustly projected to increase between 17.6 % under SSP1-2.6 and 23.8 % under SSP5-8.5 in the multi-model mean between 2051–2100 and 1965–2014. Comparing the same periods, extremely wet seasons are projected to occur 7 times more often under SSP5-8.5.</p

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/