Performance of binary prediction models in high-correlation low-dimensional settings:a comparison of methods

BACKGROUND: Clinical prediction models are developed widely across medical disciplines. When predictors in such models are highly collinear, unexpected or spurious predictor-outcome associations may occur, thereby potentially reducing face-validity of the prediction model. Collinearity can be dealt with by exclusion of collinear predictors, but when there is no a priori motivation (besides collinearity) to include or exclude specific predictors, such an approach is arbitrary and possibly inappropriate. METHODS: We compare different methods to address collinearity, including shrinkage, dimensionality reduction, and constrained optimization. The effectiveness of these methods is illustrated via simulations. RESULTS: In the conducted simulations, no effect of collinearity was observed on predictive outcomes (AUC, R(2), Intercept, Slope) across methods. However, a negative effect of collinearity on the stability of predictor selection was found, affecting all compared methods, but in particular methods that perform strong predictor selection (e.g., Lasso). Methods for which the included set of predictors remained most stable under increased collinearity were Ridge, PCLR, LAELR, and Dropout. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the results, we would recommend refraining from data-driven predictor selection approaches in the presence of high collinearity, because of the increased instability of predictor selection, even in relatively high events-per-variable settings. The selection of certain predictors over others may disproportionally give the impression that included predictors have a stronger association with the outcome than excluded predictors. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41512-021-00115-5

Why is soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 related to cardiovascular mortality?

Background: Increased plasma levels of soluble adhesion molecules are associated with an increased risk of atherothrombosis. The pathophysiological mechanisms responsible for these associations are not known. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association of soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1) concentration and risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among individuals with and without type 2 diabetes. In addition, we assessed potential pathophysiological mechanisms by which sICAM-1 may promote mortality. Materials and methods: Six hundred and thirty-one subjects taken from a general population of the middle-aged and elderly participated in this prospective cohort study. Baseline data collection was performed from 1989 to 1992; subjects were followed until 1 January 2000. Results: Subjects who died had higher levels of sICAM-1 than those who survived (506(164) vs. 477(162) ng m

The MAGIC trial: a pragmatic, multicentre, parallel, noninferiority, randomised trial of melatonin versus midazolam in the premedication of anxious children attending for elective surgery under general anaesthesia

\ua9 2023 The Author(s)Background: Child anxiety before general anaesthesia and surgery is common. Midazolam is a commonly used premedication to address this. Melatonin is an alternative anxiolytic, however trials evaluating its efficacy in children have delivered conflicting results. Methods: This multicentre, double-blind randomised trial was performed in 20 UK NHS Trusts. A sample size of 624 was required to declare noninferiority of melatonin. Anxious children, awaiting day case elective surgery under general anaesthesia, were randomly assigned 1:1 to midazolam or melatonin premedication (0.5 mg kg−1, maximum 20 mg) 30 min before transfer to the operating room. The primary outcome was the modified Yale Preoperative Anxiety Scale-Short Form (mYPAS-SF). Secondary outcomes included safety. Results are presented as n (%) and adjusted mean differences with 95% confidence intervals. Results: The trial was stopped prematurely (n=110; 55 per group) because of recruitment futility. Participants had a median age of 7 (6–10) yr, and 57 (52%) were female. Intention-to-treat and per-protocol modified Yale Preoperative Anxiety Scale-Short Form analyses showed adjusted mean differences of 13.1 (3.7–22.4) and 12.9 (3.1–22.6), respectively, in favour of midazolam. The upper 95% confidence interval limits exceeded the predefined margin of 4.3 in both cases, whereas the lower 95% confidence interval excluded zero, indicating that melatonin was inferior to midazolam, with a difference considered to be clinically relevant. No serious adverse events were seen in either arm. Conclusion: Melatonin was less effective than midazolam at reducing preoperative anxiety in children, although the early termination of the trial increases the likelihood of bias. Clinical trial registration: ISRCTN registry: ISRCTN18296119

Association of sICAM-1 and MCP-1 with coronary artery calcification in families enriched for coronary heart disease or hypertension: the NHLBI Family Heart Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Data accumulated from mouse studies and in vitro studies of human arteries support the notion that soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1) and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) play important roles in the inflammation process involved in atherosclerosis. However, at the population level, the utility of sICAM-1 and MCP-1 as biomarkers for subclinical atherosclerosis is less clear. In the follow-up exam of the NHLBI Family Heart Study, we evaluated whether plasma levels of sICAM-1 and MCP-1 were associated with coronary artery calcification (CAC), a measure of the burden of coronary atherosclerosis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>CAC was measured using the Agatston score with multidetector computed tomography. Information on CAC and MCP-1 was obtained in 2246 whites and 470 African Americans (mean age 55 years) without a history of coronary heart disease (CHD). Information on sICAM-1 was obtained for white participants only.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In whites, after adjustment for age and gender, the odds ratios (ORs) of CAC (CAC > 0) associated with the second, third, fourth, and fifth quintiles of sICAM-1 compared to the first quintile were 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91–1.63), 1.15 (0.84–1.58), 1.49 (1.09–2.05), and 1.72 (1.26–2.36) (p = 0.0005 for trend test), respectively. The corresponding ORs for the second to fifth quintiles of MCP-1 were 1.26 (0.92–1.73), 0.99 (0.73–1.34), 1.42 (1.03–1.96), and 2.00 (1.43–2.79) (p < 0.0001 for trend test), respectively. In multivariable analysis that additionally adjusted for other CHD risk factors, the association of CAC with sICAM-1 and MCP-1 was attenuated and no longer statistically significant. In African Americans, the age and gender-adjusted ORs of CAC associated with the second and third tertiles of MCP-1 compared to the first tertile were 1.16 (0.64–2.08) and 1.25 (0.70–2.23) (p = 0.44 for trend test), respectively. This result did not change materially after additional adjustment for other CHD risk factors. Test of race interaction showed that the magnitude of association between MCP-1 and CAC did not differ significantly between African Americans and whites. Similar results were obtained when CAC ≥ 10 was analyzed as an outcome for both MCP-1 and sICAM-1.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study suggests that sICAM-1 and MCP-1 are biomarkers of coronary atherosclerotic burden and their association with CAC was mainly driven by established CHD risk factors.</p

Plasma irisin is elevated in type 2 diabetes and is associated with increased E-selectin levels

BACKGROUND: Irisin is a hormone released mainly from skeletal muscle after exercise which increases adipose tissue energy expenditure. Adipocytes can also release irisin after exercise, acting as a local adipokine to induce white adipose tissue to take on a brown adipose tissue-like phenotype, suggesting that irisin and its receptor may represent a novel molecular target for the treatment of obesity and obesity-related diabetes. Previous reports provide conflicting evidence regarding circulating irisin levels in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). METHODS: This study investigated plasma irisin concentrations in 79 T2DM individuals, assessing potential associations with measures of segmental body composition, markers of endothelial dysfunction and peripheral blood mononuclear cell telomere length (TL). RESULTS: Resting, overnight-fasted plasma irisin levels were significantly higher in this group of T2DM patients compared with levels we previously reported in healthy volunteers (p < 0.001). Moreover, plasma irisin displayed a positive correlation with body mass index (p = 0.04), body fat percentage (p = 0.03), HbA1c (p = 0.03) and soluble E-selectin (p < 0.001). A significant negative association was observed between plasma irisin and visceral adiposity (p = 0.006) in T2DM patients. Multiple regression analysis revealed that circulating soluble E-selectin levels could be predicted by plasma irisin (p = 0.004). Additionally, cultured human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) exposed to 200 ng/ml irisin for 4 h showed a significant fourfold increase in E-selectin and 2.5-fold increase in ICAM-1 gene expression (p = 0.001 and p = 0.015 respectively), and there was a 1.8-fold increase in soluble E-selectin in conditioned media (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: These data suggest that elevated plasma irisin in T2DM is associated with indices of adiposity, and that irisin may be involved in pro-atherogenic endothelial disturbances that accompany obesity and T2DM. Accordingly, irisin may constitute a potentially novel therapeutic opportunity in the field of obesity and cardiovascular diabetology

ABO Blood Group and the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Case-Control Study in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B

BACKGROUND: Studies have observed an association between the ABO blood group and risk of certain malignancies. However, no studies of the association with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk are available. We conducted this hospital-based case-control study to examine the association with HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). METHODS: From January 2004 to December 2008, a total of 6275 consecutive eligible patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection were recruited. 1105 of them were patients with HBV-related HCC and 5,170 patients were CHB without HCC. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to investigate the association between the ABO blood group and HCC risk. RESULTS: Compared with subjects with blood type O, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for the association of those with blood type A and HCC risk was 1.39 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05-1.83] after adjusting for age, sex, type 2 diabetes, cirrhosis, hepatitis B e antigen, and HBV DNA. The associations were only statistically significant [AOR (95%CI) = 1.56(1.14-2.13)] for men, for being hepatitis B e antigen positive [AOR (95%CI) = 4.92(2.83-8.57)], for those with cirrhosis [AOR (95%CI), 1.57(1.12-2.20)], and for those with HBV DNA≤10(5)copies/mL [AOR (95%CI), 1.58(1.04-2.42)]. Stratified analysis by sex indicated that compared with those with blood type O, those with blood type B also had a significantly high risk of HCC among men, whereas, those with blood type AB or B had a low risk of HCC among women. CONCLUSIONS: The ABO blood type was associated with the risk of HCC in Chinese patients with CHB. The association was gender-related