Evidence, Miracles, and the Existence of Jesus: Comments on Stephen Law

We use Bayesian tools to assess Law’s skeptical argument against the historicity of Jesus. We clarify and endorse his sub-argument for the conclusion that there is good reason to be skeptical about the miracle claims of the New Testament. However, we dispute Law’s contamination principle that he claims entails that we should be skeptical about the existence of Jesus. There are problems with Law’s defense of his principle, and we show, more importantly, that it is not supported by Bayesian considerations. Finally, we show that Law’s principle is false in the specific case of Jesus and thereby show, contrary to the main conclusion of Law’s argument, that biblical historians are entitled to remain confident that Jesus existed

Invasion Ecology goes to town : from disdain to sympathy

How can one understand the increasing interest in “urban invasions”, or biological invasions in urban environments? We argue that interest in urban invasions echoes a broader evolution in how ecologists view “the city” in relation to “the natural”. Previously stark categorical distinctions between urban and natural, human and wild, city and ecology have foundered. Drawing on conceptual material and an analysis of key texts, we first show how the ecological sciences in general – and then invasion science in particular – previously had a blind spot for cities, despite a number of important historical and continental European exceptions. Then, we document the advent of an urban turn in ecology and, more recently, in invasion ecology, and how this has challenged fundamental concepts about “nativity”, “naturalness”, and human agency in nature. The urban turn necessitates more explicit and direct attention to human roles and judgements. Ecology has moved from contempt (or indifference) for cities, towards interest or even sympathy

Creative heartland: Creative capital and knowledge economy in micropolitan Midwest

Recent regional development studies increasingly focus on creative economies that provide an alternative perspective to regional development in a globalizing world-economy. However, most research in economic geography of creativity and innovation is exclusively concerned with larger metropolitan areas. The lack of attention does not make knowledge-based economy less relevant or creative capital less important in smaller urban regions, where it acts as an agent of economic development and revitalization. This study is the first attempt to use creative capital metrics and a combination of qualitative and qualitative analyses to investigate the creative capital and its economic implications in micropolitan areas within the U.S. Midwest. The study aims to improve the understanding of the role, characteristics, and geography of creative capital within micropolitan statistical areas as pertain to knowledge production and economic growth. In addition to understanding the role, characteristic, and spatial dynamics of creative capital the research also examines what attracts creative capital to micropolitan communities. The study implements a six sector model of the creative capital and utilizes various occupation-based measures to conduct a geographical and statistical analysis of creative capital and its relationships with community socio-economic characteristics and knowledge production. The study finds that creative capital at the micropolitan level is present and exhibits geographic variability. Different components of creative capital demonstrate a synergy, i.e. a tendency to cluster. However, creative capital is not evenly distributed across the Midwest with most micropolitan areas lagging behind. Creative capital accumulation does have a connection to the knowledge economy. It is generally similar to that in metropolitan areas. At the same time, when it comes to attracting creative capital there is a difference in between micropolitan centers and metropolitan areas. Creative workers in micropolitan areas are looking for a difference experiences that is not always offered in larger cities. The case studies indicate that social and civic capital may play an important part in attracting creative capital to smaller towns. These findings are important in understanding creative capital in micropolitan areas along with other regions outside of large city-regions. The findings are important for considering different policy options for micropolitan areas to maintain, and attract future knowledge economy

Prevalence of unrecognised myocardial infarction in a low-intermediate risk asymptomatic cohort and its relation to systemic atherosclerosis

The study was funded by the Souter Charitable Foundation and the Chest, Heart and Stroke Scotland Charity. J.R.W.M. is supported by the Wellcome Trust through the Scottish Translational Medicine and Therapeutics Initiative (grant no. WT 085664) in the form of a clinical research fellowship.Aims :  Unrecognized myocardial infarctions (UMIs) have been described in 19-30% of the general population using late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) on cardiac magnetic resonance. However, these studies have focused on an unselected cohort including those with known cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of the current study was to ascertain the prevalence of UMIs in a non-high-risk population using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Methods and Results :  A total of 5000 volunteers aged >40 years with no history of CVD and a 10-year risk of CVD of <20%, as assessed by the ATP-III risk score, were recruited to the Tayside Screening for Cardiac Events study. Those with a B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) level greater than their gender-specific median were invited for a whole-body MR angiogram and cardiac MR including LGE assessment. LGE was classed as absent, UMI, or non-specific. A total of 1529 volunteers completed the imaging study; of these, 53 (3.6%) were excluded because of either missing data or inadequate LGE image quality. Ten of the remaining 1476 (0.67%) displayed LGE. Of these, three (0.2%) were consistent with UMI, whereas seven were non-specific occurring in the mid-myocardium (n = 4), epicardium (n = 1), or right ventricular insertion points (n = 2). Those with UMI had a significantly higher BNP [median 116 (range 31-133) vs. 22.6 (5-175) pg/mL, P = 0.015], lower ejection fraction [54.6 (36-62) vs. 68.9 (38-89)%, P = 0.007], and larger end-systolic volume [36.3 (27-61) vs. 21.7 (5-65) mL/m(2), P = 0.014]. Those with non-specific LGE had lower diastolic blood pressure [68 (54-70) vs. 72 (46-98) mmHg, P = 0.013] but no differences in their cardiac function. Conclusion :  Despite previous reports describing high prevalence of UMI in older populations, in a predominantly middle-aged cohort, those who are of intermediate or low cardiovascular risk have a very low risk of having an unrecognized myocardial infarct.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A new assemblage of ray-finned fishes (Teleostei) from the Lower Oligocene “Schistes à Meletta” from the Glières plateau, Bornes Massif, eastern France

A recently discovered fish assemblage from the “Schistes à Meletta” facies (Lower Oligocene) of the Glières Plateau, Bornes Massif, Haute–Savoie, eastern France is described. The assemblage, comprising specimens ranging from fully-articulated skeletons to isolated scattered ossifications, is composed of Anenchelum cf. glarisianum, Pristigenys sp., Fistularia sp., Caranx cf. glarisianus alongside indeterminate teleosts. This new assemblage greatly increases the fish diversity previously known from the “Schistes à Meletta” of this area. The fauna shows biogeographic affinities with assemblages from the Peritethys domain, in particular from the Helvetic molassic basin and from the Paratethys. The genera identified at the Glières locality are represented today by species living in tropical nearshore environments together with species from the open sea. A possible explanation is that the environment of deposition was rather deep, and that shallow-water fishes were brought in by turbidity currents

Sensitivity of the IceCube Detector to Astrophysical Sources of High Energy Muon Neutrinos

We present the results of a Monte-Carlo study of the sensitivity of the planned IceCube detector to predicted fluxes of muon neutrinos at TeV to PeV energies. A complete simulation of the detector and data analysis is used to study the detector's capability to search for muon neutrinos from sources such as active galaxies and gamma-ray bursts. We study the effective area and the angular resolution of the detector as a function of muon energy and angle of incidence. We present detailed calculations of the sensitivity of the detector to both diffuse and pointlike neutrino emissions, including an assessment of the sensitivity to neutrinos detected in coincidence with gamma-ray burst observations. After three years of datataking, IceCube will have been able to detect a point source flux of E^2*dN/dE = 7*10^-9 cm^-2s^-1GeV at a 5-sigma significance, or, in the absence of a signal, place a 90% c.l. limit at a level E^2*dN/dE = 2*10^-9 cm^-2s^-1GeV. A diffuse E-2 flux would be detectable at a minimum strength of E^2*dN/dE = 1*10^-8 cm^-2s^-1sr^-1GeV. A gamma-ray burst model following the formulation of Waxman and Bahcall would result in a 5-sigma effect after the observation of 200 bursts in coincidence with satellite observations of the gamma-rays.Comment: 33 pages, 13 figures, 6 table

Prenatal and early life influences on epigenetic age in children:a study of mother-offspring pairs from two cohort studies

DNA methylation-based biomarkers of aging are highly correlated with actual age. Departures of methylation-estimated age from actual age can be used to define epigenetic measures of child development or age acceleration (AA) in adults. Very little is known about genetic or environmental determinants of these epigenetic measures of aging. We obtained DNA methylation profiles using Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChips across five time-points in 1018 mother-child pairs from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Using the Horvath age estimation method, we calculated epigenetic age for these samples. AA was defined as the residuals from regressing epigenetic age on actual age. AA was tested for associations with cross-sectional clinical variables in children. We identified associations between AA and sex, birth weight, birth by caesarean section and several maternal characteristics in pregnancy, namely smoking, weight, BMI, selenium and cholesterol level. Offspring of non-drinkers had higher AA on average but this difference appeared to resolve during childhood. The associations between sex, birth weight and AA found in ARIES were replicated in an independent cohort (GOYA). In children, epigenetic AA measures are associated with several clinically relevant variables, and early life exposures appear to be associated with changes in AA during adolescence. Further research into epigenetic aging, including the use of causal inference methods, is required to better our understanding of aging

Mesure de la documentation clinique pré- et postopératoire du syndrome du tunnel carpien. Etude pilote

La qualité de la documentation clinique permet l’analyse rétrospective du raisonnement médical, de l’information transmise au patient et de l’utilité du traitement. La démarche diagnostique et le processus du choix thérapeutique sont des dimensions peu évoquées dans le cadre de la qualité des soins. Ces notions sont essentielles car elles font parties du quotidien des médecins (1). Le dossier médical doit contenir les informations nécessaires à la compréhension rétrospective du raisonnement clinique ayant mené à un diagnostic de certitude, des choix thérapeutiques présentés au patient en rapport avec ses plaintes et des effets du traitement, qu’ils soient positifs ou négatifs. La démarche clinique et sa documentation peuvent être optimisées afin de diminuer la prescription d’examens complémentaires ou de traitements inutiles. Le syndrome du tunnel carpien est généré par la compression du nerf médian dans le canal carpien. Ce phénomène provoque fréquemment des fourmillements nocturnes dans la main (2). Les symptômes peuvent ensuite évoluer vers des troubles sensitifs permanents (paresthésies, hypoesthésie, dysesthésies) et une atrophie musculaire. Néanmoins, la présentation clinique de ce syndrome peut différer en fonction de plusieurs facteurs, tels que l’âge, le sexe ou encore les comorbidités (3). Cette pathologie est très fréquente, avec une prévalence de 1 à 3% et un pic à partir de 50 ans. Elle est 10 fois plus présente chez la femme que chez l’homme (4). La pose du diagnostic se fait la plupart du temps par l’histoire clinique, les signes physiques ainsi que par des tests de provocation. La littérature démontre la nécessité de combiner les résultats de l’anamnèse et du status pour obtenir une valeur prédictive fiable. Malgré cela, beaucoup d’incertitudes persistent, notamment parce qu’il n’existe pas de gold standard diagnostique pour cette pathologie, pas même l’électroneuromyogramme (ENMG). Un set de données minimales à remplir dans le dossier de patients consultant pour une suspicion de tunnel carpien pourrait ainsi optimaliser leur prise en charge