Long-term orbital lifetime predictions

Long-term orbital lifetime predictions are analyzed. Predictions were made for three satellites: the Solar Max Mission (SMM), the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), and the Pegasus Boiler Plate (BP). A technique is discussed for determining an appropriate ballistic coefficient to use in the lifetime prediction. The orbital decay rate should be monitored regularly. Ballistic coefficient updates should be done whenever there is a significant change in the actual decay rate or in the solar activity prediction

Probit models for capture-recapture data subject to imperfect detection, individual heterogeneity and misidentification

As noninvasive sampling techniques for animal populations have become more popular, there has been increasing interest in the development of capture-recapture models that can accommodate both imperfect detection and misidentification of individuals (e.g., due to genotyping error). However, current methods do not allow for individual variation in parameters, such as detection or survival probability. Here we develop misidentification models for capture-recapture data that can simultaneously account for temporal variation, behavioral effects and individual heterogeneity in parameters. To facilitate Bayesian inference using our approach, we extend standard probit regression techniques to latent multinomial models where the dimension and zeros of the response cannot be observed. We also present a novel Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs algorithm for fitting these models using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Using closed population abundance models for illustration, we re-visit a DNA capture-recapture population study of black bears in Michigan, USA and find evidence of misidentification due to genotyping error, as well as temporal, behavioral and individual variation in detection probability. We also estimate a salamander population of known size from laboratory experiments evaluating the effectiveness of a marking technique commonly used for amphibians and fish. Our model was able to reliably estimate the size of this population and provided evidence of individual heterogeneity in misidentification probability that is attributable to variable mark quality. Our approach is more computationally demanding than previously proposed methods, but it provides the flexibility necessary for a much broader suite of models to be explored while properly accounting for uncertainty introduced by misidentification and imperfect detection. In the absence of misidentification, our probit formulation also provides a convenient and efficient Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of traditional closed population capture-recapture data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS783 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Acting Autonomously or Mimicking the State and Peers? A Panel Tobit Analysis of Financial Dependence and Aid Allocation by Swiss NGOs

NGO aid is still widely believed to be superior to official aid (ODA). However, the incentives of NGOs to excel and target aid to the poor and deserving are increasingly disputed. We contribute to the emerging literature on the allocation of NGO aid by performing panel Tobit estimations for Swiss NGOs. The analysis offers new insights in two major regards: First, we cover the allocation of both self-financed and officially co-financed aid for a large panel of NGOs and recipient countries. Second, by classifying each NGO according to its financing structure, we address the unresolved question of whether financial dependence on the government impairs the targeting of NGO aid. It turns out that NGOs mimic the state as well as NGO peers. Officially refinanced NGOs are more inclined to imitate the allocation of ODA. However, the degree of financial dependence does not affect the poverty orientation of NGO aid and the incentives of NGOs to engage in easier environments. The allocation of self-financed aid differs in several respects from the allocation of officially co-financed aid, including the role of financial dependence for imitating the state and herding among NGOs

Acting Autonomously or Mimicking the State and Peers? A Panel Tobit Analysis of Financial Dependence and Aid Allocation by Swiss NGOs

NGO aid is still widely believed to be superior to official aid (ODA). However, the incentives of NGOs to excel and target aid to the poor and deserving are increasingly disputed. We contribute to the emerging literature on the allocation of NGO aid by performing panel Tobit estimations for Swiss NGOs. The analysis offers new insights in two major regards: First, we cover the allocation of both self-financed and officially co-financed aid for a large panel of NGOs and recipient countries. Second, by classifying each NGO according to its financing structure, we address the unresolved question of whether financial dependence on the government impairs the targeting of NGO aid. It turns out that NGOs mimic the state as well as NGO peers. Officially refinanced NGOs are more inclined to imitate the allocation of ODA. However, the degree of financial dependence does not affect the poverty orientation of NGO aid and the incentives of NGOs to engage in easier environments. The allocation of self-financed aid differs in several respects from the allocation of officially co-financed aid, including the role of financial dependence for imitating the state and herding among NGOs

Numerical modeling of quasiplanar giant water waves

In this work we present a further analytical development and a numerical implementation of the recently suggested theoretical model for highly nonlinear potential long-crested water waves, where weak three-dimensional effects are included as small corrections to exact two-dimensional equations written in the conformal variables [V.P. Ruban, Phys. Rev. E 71, 055303(R) (2005)]. Numerical experiments based on this theory describe the spontaneous formation of a single weakly three-dimensional large-amplitude wave (alternatively called freak, killer, rogue or giant wave) on the deep water.Comment: revtex4, 8 pages, 7 figure

Umbilical endometriosis

We report two women who presented with a recurrent, mildly painful, bluish nodule in the umbilicus. Both patients complained of local tenderness and occasional bleeding that increased during menstruation. Neither patient had had previous pelvic surgery. Excision of the lesions revealed a primary umbilical endometriosis; in one case, a simultaneous laparoscopy showed a pelvic endometriosis. We review the current literature and discuss the possible etiopathogenesis and when a laparoscopy is indicated to diagnose a concomitant pelvic endometriosis. Umbilical endometriosis is a very rare disease but should be considered in the differential diagnosis of umbilical lesion

Physicochemical analysis of rotavirus segment 11 supports a 'modified panhandle' structure and not the predicted alternative tRNA-like structure (TRLS)

.Rotaviruses are a major cause of acute gastroenteritis, which is often fatal in infants. The viral genome consists of 11 double-stranded RNA segments, but little is known about their cis-acting sequences and structural elements. Covariation studies and phylogenetic analysis exploring the potential structure of RNA11 of rotaviruses suggested that, besides the previously predicted "modified panhandle" structure, the 5' and 3' termini of one of the isoforms of the bovine rotavirus UKtc strain may interact to form a tRNA-like structure (TRLS). Such TRLSs have been identified in RNAs of plant viruses, where they are important for enhancing replication and packaging. However, using tRNA mimicry assays (in vitro aminoacylation and 3'- adenylation), we found no biochemical evidence for tRNA-like functions of RNA11. Capping, synthetic 3' adenylation and manipulation of divalent cation concentrations did not change this finding. NMR studies on a 5'- and 3'-deletion construct of RNA11 containing the putative intra-strand complementary sequences supported a predominant panhandle structure and did not conform to a cloverleaf fold despite the strong evidence for a predicted structure in this conserved region of the viral RNA. Additional viral or cellular factors may be needed to stabilise it into a form with tRNA-like properties

Structure and conductance histogram of atomic-sized Au contacts

Many experiments have shown that the conductance histograms of metallic atomic-sized contacts exhibit a peak structure, which is characteristic of the corresponding material. The origin of these peaks still remains as an open problem. In order to shed some light on this issue, we present a theoretical analysis of the conductance histograms of Au atomic contacts. We have combined classical molecular dynamics simulations of the breaking of nanocontacts with conductance calculations based on a tight-binding model. This combination gives us access to crucial information such as contact geometries, forces, minimum cross-section, total conductance and transmission coefficients of the individual conduction channels. The ensemble of our results suggests that the low temperature Au conductance histograms are a consequence of a subtle interplay between mechanical and electrical properties of these nanocontacts. At variance with other suggestions in the literature, our results indicate that the peaks in the Au conductance histograms are not a simple consequence of conductance quantization or the existence of exceptionally stable radii. We show that the main peak in the histogram close to one quantum of conductance is due to the formation of single-atom contacts and chains of gold atoms. Moreover, we present a detailed comparison with experimental results on Au atomic contacts where the individual channel transmissions have been determined.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, version to be published in Phys. Rev. B. The paper has been thoroughly revised and several figures have been replaced by new one