Sudden Stops: Determinants and Output Effects in the First Era of Globalization, 1880-1913

Using a sample of 20 emerging countries from 1880 to 1913, we study the determinants and output effects of sudden stops in capital inflows during an era of intensified globalization. We find that higher levels of original sin (hard currency debt to total debt) and large current account deficits associated with reliance on foreign capital greatly increased the likelihood of experiencing a sudden stop. Trade openness and stronger commitment to the gold standard had the opposite effect. These results are robust for many sudden stop definitions used in the literature. Finally, we use a treatment effects model to show that after controlling for endogeneity sudden stops have a strong negative association with growth in per capita output. We also show that banking, currency and debt crises that were preceded by a sudden stop have much greater negative relation with growth than in the absence of a sudden stop.

Redox and Chemical Activities of the Hemes in the Sulfur Oxidation Pathway Enzyme SoxAX

BACKGROUND: SoxAX enzymes initiate microbial oxidation of reduced inorganic sulfur compounds. Their catalytic mechanism is unknown. RESULTS: Cyanide displaces the CysS(-) ligand to the active site heme following reduction by S(2)O(4)(2-) but not Eu(II). CONCLUSION: An active site heme ligand becomes labile on exposure to substrate analogs. SIGNIFICANCE: Elucidation of SoxAX mechanism is necessary to understand a widespread pathway for sulfur compound oxidation. SoxAX enzymes couple disulfide bond formation to the reduction of cytochrome c in the first step of the phylogenetically widespread Sox microbial sulfur oxidation pathway. Rhodovulum sulfidophilum SoxAX contains three hemes. An electrochemical cell compatible with magnetic circular dichroism at near infrared wavelengths has been developed to resolve redox and chemical properties of the SoxAX hemes. In combination with potentiometric titrations monitored by electronic absorbance and EPR, this method defines midpoint potentials (E(m)) at pH 7.0 of approximately +210, -340, and -400 mV for the His/Met, His/Cys(-), and active site His/CysS(-)-ligated heme, respectively. Exposing SoxAX to S(2)O(4)(2-), a substrate analog with E(m) ~-450 mV, but not Eu(II) complexed with diethylene triamine pentaacetic acid (E(m) ~-1140 mV), allows cyanide to displace the cysteine persulfide (CysS(-)) ligand to the active site heme. This provides the first evidence for the dissociation of CysS(-) that has been proposed as a key event in SoxAX catalysis

Enrugamento de membranas anulares

No presente trabalho estuda-se a estabilidade de membranas axissimetricas homogeneas, isotrópicas e incompressíveis, sujeitas à deformaçóes finitas. Nestas membranas inicialmente planas, atuam cargas axiais distribuídas f e m.. As equaçóes de equilíbrio e condiçóes de contorno sao obtidas através do principio da energia potencial estacionária. Considera-se o material da membrana como sendo neo-Hookeano. Através da teoria de pequenas perturbacoes fez-se o estudo da estabilidade da membrana, comprovandese com um modelo experimental rudimentar.Peer Reviewe

The Gold Standard as a `Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval'

In this paper we argue that adherence to the gold standard rule of convertibility of national currencies into a fixed weight of gold served as a `good housekeeping seal of approval' which facilitated access by peripheral countries to foreign capital from the core countries of western Europe. We survey the historical background of gold standard adherence in the period 1870-1914 by nine important peripheral countries. The sample includes the full range of commitment to the gold standard from continuous adherence, through intermittent adherence, to non-adherence. Evidence on the pattern of long-term government bond yields suggests that long-term commitment to the gold standard mattered even when bonds were denominated in gold: countries that remained on gold throughout the classical era were charged lower rates than countries that had a mixed record of adherence. Estimation of a model analogous to the CAPM, using the differential between peripheral country rates and UK rates augmented by a list of `fundamentals' and a dummy variable to capture gold standard adherence, reveals that capital markets attached significant weight to gold standard adherence. Countries with poor adherence records were charged considerably more than those with good records, enough to explain the determined effort to stay on gold made by a number of capital importing countries.

The financial crisis of 1825 and the restructuring of the British financial system - commentary

Banks and banking - History ; Banks and banking - Great Britain ; Great Britain ; Financial crises - Great Britain

Some Historical Evidence 1870-1933 on the Impact and International Transmission of Financial Crises

This study presents historical evidence for six countries (the U.S., U.K., Germany, France, Canada, Sweden) in the period 1870-1933 on the impactof financial crises on economic activity and on the international transmission of financial crises. The paper examines two approaches in the literature to the role and importance of financial crises as disturbances to domestic and international economic activity, that of the monetarists--Friedman and Schwartz and Cagan, and that of Fisher-Minsky and Kindleberger. In a comparison of reference cycle contractions for the six countries over the period 1870-1933 severe contractions in economic activity were in all cases accompanied by monetary contraction, in most cases with stock market crashes, but not with the exception of the U.S., by banking crises. The unique performance of the U.S. can be attributed to the absence of a nationwide branch banking system compared to the five other countries examined, and the less effective role played by the U.S. monetary authorities in acting as a lender of last resort. Our principal findings on the international transmission of financial crises are two. First, consistent with the monetarist approach, that under the Classical gold standard, in periods containing financial crises, nations' money supplies were linked by gold flows and changes in high powered money, while under periods of flexible exchange rates there is evidence of insulation of domestic monetary and real variables from foreign shocks. Second, in sympathy with the Kindleberger-Minsky approach, the similarity between countries of turning points in stock market prices, the common incidence of stock market crises, and the similar importance of the deposit reserve ratio as the key determinant of monetary contraction in all countries (except the u.s.) suggests that arbitrage in stock prices was a channel for the international transmission of crises.

The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Financial Crises: 1880-1913 vs. 1972-1997

What is the role of foreign currency debt in precipitating financial crises? In this paper we compare the 1880 to 1913 period to recent experience. We examine debt crises, currency crises, banking crises and the interrelation between these varieties of crises. We pay special attention to the role of hard currency debt, currency mismatches and debt intolerance. We find fairly robust evidence that high exposure to foreign currency debt does not necessarily lead to a high chance of having a debt crisis, currency crisis, or a banking crisis. A key finding is some countries do not suffer from great financial fragility despite high exposure to original sin. In the nineteenth century, the British offshoots and Scandinavia generally avoided severe financial meltdowns while today many advanced countries have high original sin but have had few financial crises. The common denominator in both periods is that currency mismatches matter. A strong reserve position or high exports relative to hard currency liabilities helps decrease the likelihood of a debt crisis, currency crisis or a banking crisis. This strengthens the evidence for the hypothesis that foreign currency debt is dangerous when mis-managed. We discuss the robustness of these results and make some general comparisons based on this evidence from over 60 years of intense international capital market integration.

NAVPRO: um sistema para processamento e geração de produtos de imagens AVHRR-NOAA.

Nos últimos anos, as imagens de sensores remotos orbitais têm sido uma fonte importante de informação para estudos geográficos, agrometeorológicos e ambientais em nível regional, por oferecerem a necessária repetitividade temporal da superfície terrestre. Um sensor particularmente importante é o Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), a bordo da série de satélites da National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).bitstream/item/17805/1/cnptiact98.pd

Financial Crises, 1880-1913: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt

What is the role of foreign currency debt in precipitating financial crises? In this paper we assemble data for nearly 30 countries between 1880 and 1913 and examine debt crises, currency crises, banking crises and twin crises. We pay special attention to the role of foreign currency and gold clause debt, currency mismatches and debt intolerance. We find fairly robust evidence that more foreign currency debt leads to a higher chance of having a debt crisis or a banking crisis. However, a key finding is that countries with noticeably different backgrounds, and strong institutions such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the US deftly managed their exposure to hard currency debt, generally avoided having too many crises and never had severe financial meltdowns. Moreover, a strong reserve position matched up to hard currency liabilities seems to be correlated with a lower likelihood of a debt crisis, currency crisis or a banking crisis. This strengthens the evidence for the hypothesis that foreign currency debt is dangerous when mis-managed. We also see that countries with previous default histories seem prone to debt crises even at seemingly low debt to revenue ratios. Finally we discuss the robustness of these results to local idiosyncrasies and the implications from this representative historical sample.