Monitoring Real Time Responses of Financial Markets to Monetary Policy Actions

本文从一个新的角度研究了货币政策的改变对金融市场的冲击。借助实时监控检验这种新的计量方法，我们发现了一些反对市场对货币政策的反应是一成不变的证据。这种时变的性质在之前的文献中很少涉及。 我们也考虑了美国债券市场，可以认为结构性突变的检测结果与美国股票市场情况一致。在1989至2009的样本历史中，2001年至2007年7年的时间里市场对货币政策的反应呈现出不同的模式，市场对于货币政策宣布的反应更为剧烈。这一现象是第一次被发现。我们对分段后的样本重新进行了估计，给出了相对于现有文献来说更加精确的结果。 至于背后的经济解释，我们在经过多方面考察之后认为原因是在这段时期内，对于未来的经济走势，美...This paper studies the impact of monetary policy change to financial markets form a new view. With the help of a new econometric tool- real time monitoring test, we find some evidence that is against only one response pattern to monetary policy announcements. This time-varying property is rally discussed in the literature. This paper discusses the equity market and bond market of U.S., and finds...学位：经济学硕士院系专业：王亚南经济研究院_金融学(含保险学)学号：2772009115241

Monitoring Real Time Responses of Financial Markets to Monetary Policy Actions

本文从一个新的角度研究了货币政策的改变对金融市场的冲击。借助实时监控检验这种新的计量方法，我们发现了一些反对市场对货币政策的反应是一成不变的证据。这种时变的性质在之前的文献中很少涉及。 我们也考虑了美国债券市场，可以认为结构性突变的检测结果与美国股票市场情况一致。在1989至2009的样本历史中，2001年至2007年7年的时间里市场对货币政策的反应呈现出不同的模式，市场对于货币政策宣布的反应更为剧烈。这一现象是第一次被发现。我们对分段后的样本重新进行了估计，给出了相对于现有文献来说更加精确的结果。 至于背后的经济解释，我们在经过多方面考察之后认为原因是在这段时期内，对于未来的经济走势，美联储的政策动作拥有更大的影响力。市场是理性的，因此反应变得更加敏感。本文可以作为批评美联储政策的论据之一，也可向未来各国央行制定货币政策提供富有价值的参考。This paper studies the impact of monetary policy change to financial markets form a new view. With the help of a new econometric tool- real time monitoring test, we find some evidence that is against only one response pattern to monetary policy announcements. This time-varying property is rally discussed in the literature. This paper discusses the equity market and bond market of U.S., and finds the similar scenarios in two markets. In our sample which is consisting of events in the period from 1989 to 2009, the response pattern is significantly different in the 7 years starting form 2001- it was more sensitive. This phenomenon is reported for the first time here. After that, we estimate 3 subsamples separately again, and provide a more accurate result compared with the existing literatures. So as to the economic reasoning behind, we conclude that it attributes to that the Fed’s policy is more influential on the macro-economy during that period. The market is rational, thus became implicitly more sensitive to the announcement in that period. This paper can be one of the evidence for criticizing the Federal Reserve’s policy, and it will provide valuable reference to central banks of the world when they are making monetary policies.学位：经济学硕士院系专业：王亚南经济研究院_金融学(含保险学)学号：2772009115241

Study on Power Consumption and Stealing Law of Large-Scale Low Voltage Power Supply Area

针对国内外在220 V和380 V供电电压的低压地区电力消耗的研究较少,很难探究实时线损的问题。对供电、用电、线损、窃电4个方面进行数据分析,建立统计模型与聚类模型,探索电力消费和窃电的规律。利用时间序列分析、频谱分析、概率密度函数、互补累积分布函数的统计模型进行分析。结果表明窃电用户用电周期是正常用户的2倍,窃电用户的日均用电量大于正常用户,窃电用户在台区线损率大于40%时数量激增,线损率到达65%时数量放缓,可以优先排查此区间的台区。基于时间序列相似度度量和k-means聚类相结合的聚类模型,将566个台区365维的时间序列聚类得到6类不同的台区线损率模式,并通过核密度估计对比了他们的分布差别,可以帮助快速排查出重点窃电台区并监测线损率改善的情况。</p

JUNO Sensitivity on Proton Decay p→νˉK+p\to \bar\nu K^+ Searches

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this paper, the potential on searching for proton decay in $p\to \bar\nu K^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated.The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreover, the excellent energy resolution of JUNO permits to suppress the sizable background caused by other delayed signals. Based on these advantages, the detection efficiency for the proton decay via $p\to \bar\nu K^+$ is 36.9% with a background level of 0.2 events after 10 years of data taking. The estimated sensitivity based on 200 kton-years exposure is $9.6 \times 10^{33}$ years, competitive with the current best limits on the proton lifetime in this channel

JUNO sensitivity on proton decay p → ν K + searches*

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this study, the potential of searching for proton decay in the $p\to \bar{\nu} K^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated. The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreover, the excellent energy resolution of JUNO permits suppression of the sizable background caused by other delayed signals. Based on these advantages, the detection efficiency for the proton decay via $p\to \bar{\nu} K^+$ is 36.9% ± 4.9% with a background level of $0.2\pm 0.05({\rm syst})\pm$$0.2({\rm stat})$ events after 10 years of data collection. The estimated sensitivity based on 200 kton-years of exposure is $9.6 \times 10^{33}$ years, which is competitive with the current best limits on the proton lifetime in this channel and complements the use of different detection technologies