Studies on the Super-Stabilization of RMB Nominal Exchange Rate

1994年汇率并轨以来，人民币名义汇率超稳定使我国的汇率制度由名义上的管理浮动制演变为实际上的固定钉住制，这与特殊的汇率形成机制有关，这种机制包括经常项目下的强制结售汇、严格的资本管制、外汇市场交易约束和频繁的市场干预。但更重要的原因还在于汇率稳定有坚实的经济支撑，均衡汇率模型测算结果显示，近年来人民币实际有效汇率是基本均衡的，虽然从中期来看受美元不断走弱的带动，人民币有所低估，但从长期来看，却是高估的，因此，低估论缺乏依据。 定量分析结果显示，虽然人民币实际有效汇率与我国出口和FDI负向相关，但却与贸易差额正向相关。这意味着，1994年以来我国贸易持续顺差和经济持续增长所依靠并不是人民币低...Abstract Since the reform of exchange rate regime in 1994, the NER super-stabilization makes our exchange rate regime convert from nominal managed floating to actual fixed peg. This is related to special exchange rate formation system, which include compulsory purchase and sale of forex in current account, rigorous capital supervision, trade restraint and frequent intervention in forex market. Bu...学位：经济学博士院系专业：经济学院金融系_金融学(含保险学)学号：B20011203

中国海及邻近区域碳库与通量综合分析

中国海总面积约470万平方公里,纵跨热带、亚热带、温带、北温带等多个气候带.其中,南海北依\"世界第三极\"青藏高原、南邻\"全球气候引擎\"西太平洋暖池,东海拥有全球最宽的陆架之一,跨陆架物质运输显著,黄海是冷暖流交汇区域,渤海则是受人类活动高度影响的内湾浅海.中国海内有长江、黄河、珠江等大河输入,外邻全球两大西边界流之一的黑潮.这些鲜明的特色赋予了中国海碳储库和通量研究的典型代表意义.文章从不同海区（渤海、黄海、东海、南海）、不同界面（陆-海、海-气、水柱-沉积物、边缘海-大洋等）,以及不同生态系统（红树林、盐沼湿地、海草床、海藻养殖、珊瑚礁、水柱生态系统等）多层面对海洋碳库与通量进行了较系统地综合分析,初步估算了各个碳库的储量与不同碳库间的通量.就海气通量而言,渤海向大气中释放CO2约0.22Tg Ca-1,黄海吸收CO2约1.15Tg Ca-1,东海吸收CO2约6.92～23.30Tg Ca-1,南海释放CO2约13.86～33.60Tg Ca-1.如果仅考虑海-气界面的CO2交换,中国海总体上是大气CO2的\"源\",净释放量约6.01～9.33Tg Ca-1.这主要是由于河流输入以及邻近大洋输入所致.河流输入渤黄海、东海、南海的溶解无机碳（DIC）分别为5.04、14.60和40.14Tg Ca-1,而邻近大洋输入DIC更是高达144.81Tg Ca-1,远超中国海向大气释放的碳量.渤海、黄海、东海、南海的沉积有机碳通量分别为2.00、3.60、7.40、7.49Tg Ca-1.东海和南海向邻近大洋输送有机碳通量分别为15.25～36.70和43.39Tg Ca-1.就生态系统而言,中国沿海红树林、盐沼湿地、海草床有机碳埋藏通量为0.36Tg Ca-1,海草床溶解有机碳（DOC）输出通量为0.59Tg Ca-1;中国近海海藻养殖移出碳通量0.68Tg Ca-1,沉积和DOC释放通量分别为0.14和0.82Tg Ca-1.总计,中国海有机碳年输出通量为81.72～103.17Tg Ca-1.中国海的有机碳输出以DOC形式为主,东海向邻近大洋输出的DOC通量约15.00～35.00Tg Ca-1,南海输出约31.39Tg Ca-1.综上,尽管从海-气通量看中国海是大气CO2的\"源\",但考虑了河流、大洋输入、沉积输出以及微型生物碳泵（DOC转化输出）作用后,中国海是重要的储碳区.需要指出的是,文章数据是基于中国海各海区碳循环研究报道,鉴于不同研究方法上的差异,所得数据难免有一定的误差范围,亟待将来统一方法标准下的更多深入研究和分析.国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2016YFA0601400);;国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:91751207、91428308、41722603、41606153、41422603);;中央高校基础研究项目(编号:20720170107);;中海油项目(编号:CNOOC-KJ125FZDXM00TJ001-2014、CNOOCKJ125FZDXM00ZJ001-2014)资

Analysis of the Demand and Supply of Finance Regulation

依据管制供求理论,我国金融监管当局必须克服自身利益的局限,以追求政治支持最大化为目标,充分调动监管人员的积极性,把握国内监管需求变化和国际监管制度发展的趋势,加快监管制度创新,努力提高监管效率。According to the theory of control demand and supply, the finance regulation authorities of our country should prevent themselves from being hindered by their own benefit so as to aim at maximum political support,- fully mobilize the supervisors; hold the change of the supply and demand of regulation at home and the development trend of international regulation and do their best to speed up the innovation of regulation system and raise supervision efficiency

The Evaporation of the Illusioned Value of Financial Assets within the "Shadow System

处于"影系统"中的金融资产价值的虚幻化、金融资产价格的自我膨胀以及外部传染是一国发生金融危机的三个基本原因。因此,应以能灵敏反映金融资产价值的虚幻程度、金融系统自身的涨落和受国际金融环境的影响及其承受力为标准来选择预警指标,并运用经济控制论的基本原理来采取防范措施。Financial crisis results from three fundamental causes,namely,the illusion of the value of financial assets within the shadow system,the self expanding of the price of financial assets and the infection from other countries.So,early warning indicators should be selected according to whether it can sensitively reflect the extent of illussory value of financial assets, the fluctuation in the financial system itself,and effects of international financial environment as well as its supporting capability.We should apply the fundamental principle of economic cybernetics to take measures to prevent financial crisis

JUNO Sensitivity on Proton Decay p→νˉK+p\to \bar\nu K^+ Searches

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this paper, the potential on searching for proton decay in $p\to \bar\nu K^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated.The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreover, the excellent energy resolution of JUNO permits to suppress the sizable background caused by other delayed signals. Based on these advantages, the detection efficiency for the proton decay via $p\to \bar\nu K^+$ is 36.9% with a background level of 0.2 events after 10 years of data taking. The estimated sensitivity based on 200 kton-years exposure is $9.6 \times 10^{33}$ years, competitive with the current best limits on the proton lifetime in this channel

JUNO sensitivity on proton decay p → ν K + searches*

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this study, the potential of searching for proton decay in the $p\to \bar{\nu} K^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated. The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreover, the excellent energy resolution of JUNO permits suppression of the sizable background caused by other delayed signals. Based on these advantages, the detection efficiency for the proton decay via $p\to \bar{\nu} K^+$ is 36.9% ± 4.9% with a background level of $0.2\pm 0.05({\rm syst})\pm$$0.2({\rm stat})$ events after 10 years of data collection. The estimated sensitivity based on 200 kton-years of exposure is $9.6 \times 10^{33}$ years, which is competitive with the current best limits on the proton lifetime in this channel and complements the use of different detection technologies