Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea

In a climate change context, changes in extreme sea-levels rather than changes in the mean are of particular interest from the coastal protection point of view. In this work, extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea are investigated based on daily tide gauge records for the period 1916–2005 using the annual block maxima approach. Extreme events are analysed based on the generalised extreme value distribution considering both stationary and time-varying models. The likelihood ratio test is applied to select between stationary and non-stationary models for the maxima and return values are estimated from the final model. As an independent and complementary approach, quantile regression is applied for comparison with the results from the extreme value approach. The rates of change in the uppermost quantiles are in general consistent and most pronounced for the northernmost stations

Coastal storm characterization and morphological impacts on sandy coasts

The present work deals with storm classification, using the Storm Power Index, and beach morphological response to storm events in the Gulf of Cadiz (SW Spain). Over the 1958–2001 period, 377 events divided into five classes ranging from ‘weak’ to ‘extreme’ were characterized. Classes I (weak) and II (moderate) accounted for 60% and 23% of events, respectively. Class III (significant), were 9% of the recorded events and Classes IV (severe) and V (extreme) accounted for 5% and 2%, respectively. The probability of storm occurrence per year ranged from 93% for Class I to 15% for Class V. In order to characterize beach response to storm events, 214 beach profiles carried out with a monthly periodicity over the 1996–1998 period along the Chipiona-Rota littoral were analysed, as well as published data. Different beach types were observed: (i) ‘Intermediate’ beaches underwent important vertical relief changes ranging from 0.3m to 1.33m associated with average slope changes from tan b = 0.06 to tan b = 0.03; (ii) the ‘dissipative’ beaches were characterized by smaller and homogeneous foreshore vertical changes, from c. 0.36m to 0.65 m, according to the parallel retreat mechanism characterized by small slope variations (from tan b = 0.025 to tan b = 0.035); and (iii) ‘intermediate with rock shore platform’ experienced small morphological and foreshore slope variations, related to both beach pivoting and parallel retreat mechanisms. The most important morphological changes were due to the impact of usually ‘weak’ and ‘moderate’ events during October and November that produced berm erosion and upper foreshore lowering, and the impact of ‘severe’, ‘significant’ and ‘extreme’ events in December and January which produced dune escarpment, overwash and/or damage to coastal structures

Winter wave climate, storms and regional cycles: the SW Spanish Atlantic coast

Climatic change-related impacts on coastal areas became an important issue in past decades and nowadays threaten many human settlements and activities. Coastal hazards are linked to flooding and erosion processes associated with sea level rise and the increased strength of hurricanes, cyclones and storms. The main aim of this work is the characterization of coastal storms in Cadiz (SW Spain) and the determination of their recurrence intervals and relationships with several regional cycles. Storm characterization was carried out using the Storm Power Index (Dolan and Davis, 1992) and five classes were obtained, from class I (weak events) to V (extreme events). Storm occurrence probability was 96% for class I (i.e. almost one event per year) to 3% for class V. The return period for class V was 25 years and ranged from 6 to 8 years for classes III and IV storms, e.g. significant and severe events. Classes I and II showed a period of recurrence ranging from 1 to 3 years. Stormy winter seasons were 2009/10 (12 events), 1995/6 and 2002/3 (with 10 events each) and 1993/4 (8 events). Approximately 40% of the change in monthly wave data and storminess indices was related to several teleconnection patterns, the most important drivers of change being the Arctic Oscillation (AO), 21.45%, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 19.65%. It is interesting to note that a great number of storms, larger storm duration and higher values of Storm Power Index were only observed when neutral to strong negative NAO and AO phases occurred at the same time (89 storms and 3355 h) and/or when there was an abrupt change of NAO and AO phases, i.e. they moved from a positive to negative phase without passing through a neutral phase. The results obtained in this work have wider applications for ocean and coastal management. It is suggested that methodology used can be easily applied in different areas where wave buoy data are available. In the same way, information obtained with this kind of work constitutes the first step in the development of coastal protection plans to preserve socio-economic activities from the impact of severe storm events

Atmospheric stilling leads to prolonged thermal stratification in a large shallow polymictic lake

To quantify the effects of recent and potential future decreases in surface wind speeds on lake thermal stratification, we apply the one-dimensional process-based model MyLake to a large, shallow, polymictic lake, Võrtsjärv. The model is validated for a 3-year period and run separately for 28 years using long-term daily atmospheric forcing data from a nearby meteorological station. Model simulations show exceptionally good agreement with observed surface and bottom water temperatures during the 3-year period. Similarly, simulated surface water temperatures for 28 years show remarkably good agreement with long-term in situ water temperatures. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that decreasing wind speeds has resulted in substantial changes in stratification dynamics since 1982, while increasing air temperatures during the same period had a negligible effect. Atmospheric stilling is a phenomenon observed globally, and in addition to recent increases in surface air temperature, needs to be considered when evaluating the influence of climate change on lake ecosystems

Waves, currents and sea level variations along the Letipea - Sillamäe coastal section of the southern Gulf of Finland

Variations in the hydrodynamic conditions were studied on the basis of 336 days of measurements with a Doppler current profiler. With wave data as a calibration reference, a semi-empirical hindcast of wave parameters is presented in the fetch-limited near-shore area for the period 1966-2008. A resultant 4-6 cm s-1 westward current dominated along the coast. Occasional fast sub-surface westward currents under modest wind forcing, as well as asymmetrical vertical profiles for westward and eastward currents indicated the influence of upwelling-related baroclinic coastal jets. The average frequency of upwelling was estimated at 17%; some of the events were identified in near-homothermic winter conditions on the basis of salinity and multi-layer flow records. While the mean sea level trend at Narva-Jõesuu roughly approximated the global estimates for 1899-2009, the annual maximum sea level increase was 5-8 mm yr-1. Both mean and maximum wave heights declined as a result of decreasing winds from the north