The atmospheric bridge communicated the δ13C decline during the last deglaciation to the global upper ocean

During the early part of the last glacial termination (17.2-15 ka) and coincident with a ∼ 35 ppm rise in atmospheric CO2, a sharp 0.3‰-0.4‰ decline in atmospheric δ13CO2 occurred, potentially constraining the key processes that account for the early deglacial CO2 rise. A comparable δ13C decline has also been documented in numerous marine proxy records from surface and thermocline-dwelling planktic foraminifera. The δ13C decline recorded in planktic foraminifera has previously been attributed to the release of respired carbon from the deep ocean that was subsequently transported within the upper ocean to sites where the signal was recorded (and then ultimately transferred to the atmosphere). Benthic δ13C records from the global upper ocean, including a new record presented here from the tropical Pacific, also document this distinct early deglacial δ13C decline. Here we present modeling evidence to show that rather than respired carbon from the deep ocean propagating directly to the upper ocean prior to reaching the atmosphere, the carbon would have first upwelled to the surface in the Southern Ocean where it would have entered the atmosphere. In this way the transmission of isotopically light carbon to the global upper ocean was analogous to the ongoing ocean invasion of fossil fuel CO2. The model results suggest that thermocline waters throughout the ocean and 500-2000m water depths were affected by this atmospheric bridge during the early deglaciation

Consequences of artificial deepwater ventilation in the Bornholm Basin for oxygen conditions, cod reproduction and benthic biomass – a model study

We develop and use a circulation model to estimate hydrographical and ecological changes in the isolated basin water of the Bornholm Basin. By pumping well-oxygenated so-called winter water to the greatest depth, where it is forced to mix with the resident water, the rate of deepwater density reduction increases as well as the frequency of intrusions of new oxygen-rich deepwater. We show that pumping 1000 m(3) s(-1) should increase the rates of water exchange and oxygen supply by 2.5 and 3 times, respectively. The CRV cod reproduction volume), the volume of water in the isolated basin meeting the requirements for successful cod reproduction (S > 11, O-2 > 2 mL L-1), should every year be greater than 54 km(3), which is an immense improvement, since it has been much less in certain years. Anoxic bottoms should no longer occur in the basin, and hypoxic events will become rare. This should permit extensive colonization of fauna on the earlier periodically anoxic bottoms. Increased biomass of benthic fauna should also mean increased food supply to economically valuable demersal fish like cod and flatfish. In addition, re-oxygenation of the sediments should lead to increased phosphorus retention by the sediments

Meridional ocean carbon transport

The ocean's ability to take up and store CO2 is a key factor for understanding past and future climate variability. However, qualitative and quantitative understanding of surface‐to‐interior pathways, and how the ocean circulation affects the CO2 uptake, is limited. Consequently, how changes in ocean circulation may influence carbon uptake and storage and therefore the future climate remains ambiguous. Here we quantify the roles played by ocean circulation and various water masses in the meridional redistribution of carbon. We do so by calculating streamfunctions defined in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and latitude coordinates, using output from a coupled biogeochemical‐physical model. By further separating DIC into components originating from the solubility pump and a residual including the biological pump, air‐sea disequilibrium, and anthropogenic CO2, we are able to distinguish the dominant pathways of how carbon enters particular water masses. With this new tool, we show that the largest meridional carbon transport occurs in a pole‐to‐equator transport in the subtropical gyres in the upper ocean. We are able to show that this pole‐to‐equator DIC transport and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)‐related DIC transport are mainly driven by the solubility pump. By contrast, the DIC transport associated with deep circulation, including that in Antarctic bottom water and Pacific deep water, is mostly driven by the biological pump. As these two pumps, as well as ocean circulation, are widely expected to be impacted by anthropogenic changes, these findings have implications for the future role of the ocean as a climate‐buffering carbon reservoir

A comparison of the atmospheric response to the Weddell Sea Polynya in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) of varying resolutions

The Weddell Sea Polynya (WSP) is a large opening within the sea ice cover of the Weddell Sea sector. It has been a rare event in the satellite period, appearing between 1973 and 1976 and again in 2016/2017. Coupled modelling studies have suggested that there may be a large-scale atmospheric response to the WSP. Here, the direct atmospheric response to the WSP is estimated from atmosphere-only numerical experiments. Three different models, the HadGEM3 UK Met Office model, the ECHAM5 Max Planck Institute model, and the OpenIFS ECMWF model, each at two different resolutions, are used to test the robustness of our results. The use of large ensembles reduces the weather variability and isolates the atmospheric response. Results show a large (∼100–200 W m−2) turbulent air–sea flux anomaly above the polynya. The response to the WSP is local and of short duration (barely outlasting the WSP) with a similar magnitude and spatial pattern of lower-tropospheric warming and increase in precipitation in all six configurations. All models show a weak decrease in surface pressure over the WSP, but this response is small (∼2 hPa) in comparison to internal variability. The dynamic response is inconsistent between models and resolutions above the boundary layer, suggesting a weak or null response that is covered by internal variability aloft. The higher resolution does not alter the pattern of the response but increases its magnitude by up ∼50 % in two of the three models. The response is influenced by natural variability in the westerly jet. The models perform well against ERA5 reanalysis data for the 1974 WSP in spatial response and magnitude, showing a turbulent heat flux of approximately 150 W m−2

Model analysis of ocean carbon storage and transport across climate states

The ocean carbon cycle plays a fundamental role in the Earth’s climate system, on decadal to multi-millennial timescales. Of the carbon held in the ocean, the atmosphere, and the terrestrial biosphere combined, more than 90% resides in the ocean. Carbon enters the surface ocean through air-sea gas exchange and from terrestrial sources. It is transported to the deep ocean with the ocean circulation and through the so-called biological pump, where carbon is taken up in the surface ocean by photosynthetic organisms that fall down and decompose at depth. This thesis contributes to the understanding of the processes involved in ocean carbon storage and transport. It examines how these processes respond to model perturbations, and how this response influences our attempts to simulate glacial-interglacial fluctuations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). The thesis investigates the response of the simulated ocean carbon storage, and distribution of the isotopic tracer δ13C, to changes in physical and biological parameters. In the included studies, we use observational as well as proxy records of oceanic properties to evaluate our model simulations. In addition, we use a climate model to interpret proxy evidence of glacial-interglacial changes in ocean δ13C. By using a separation framework, we identify the origin of the carbon in the model ocean, and attribute observed changes to the processes involved. The results indicate a strong link between ocean carbon storage and the strength of the global ocean overturning circulation. Stronger circulation leads to less carbon storage through a weakening of the biological pump, and through reduced solubility due to an increase in global ocean average temperature. In simulations of glacial climate, we find that biological adaptability to the surrounding nutrient conditions, through a flexible carbon-to-phosphorus ratio (C/P) in ocean photosynthesis, increases the ocean carbon storage compared to simulations where fixed C/P is applied. The biological flexibility improves the model’s ability to reproduce glacial atmospheric CO2. In line with previous research, we find freshwater input to the North Atlantic to be an important factor for reproducing glacial proxy records. The ensemble of simulations that achieve a good representation of glacial-interglacial δ13C indicates a deglacial whole-ocean change in δ13C of 0.28 ± 0.06‰. The thesis underlines the importance of the initial state, and the choice of model parameterisations, for the outcome of model ensemble, and intercomparison studies. Finally, it proposes a new method for estimation of ocean carbon transport, and attribution of this transport to different water masses and carbon system processes.At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.</p

A comparison of the atmospheric response to the Weddell Sea Polynya in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) of varying resolutions

The Weddell Sea Polynya (WSP) is a large opening within the sea ice cover of the Weddell Sea sector. It has been a rare event in the satellite period, appearing between 1973 and 1976 and again in 2016/2017. Coupled modelling studies have suggested that there may be a large-scale atmospheric response to the WSP. Here, the direct atmospheric response to the WSP is estimated from atmosphere-only numerical experiments. Three different models, the HadGEM3 UK Met Office model, the ECHAM5 Max Planck Institute model, and the OpenIFS ECMWF model, each at two different resolutions, are used to test the robustness of our results. The use of large ensembles reduces the weather variability and isolates the atmospheric response. Results show a large (∼100-200 Wm-2) turbulent air-sea flux anomaly above the polynya. The response to the WSP is local and of short duration (barely outlasting the WSP) with a similar magnitude and spatial pattern of lower-tropospheric warming and increase in precipitation in all six configurations. All models show a weak decrease in surface pressure over the WSP, but this response is small (∼2 hPa) in comparison to internal variability. The dynamic response is inconsistent between models and resolutions above the boundary layer, suggesting a weak or null response that is covered by internal variability aloft. The higher resolution does not alter the pattern of the response but increases its magnitude by up ∼50% in two of the three models. The response is influenced by natural variability in the westerly jet. The models perform well against ERA5 reanalysis data for the 1974 WSP in spatial response and magnitude, showing a turbulent heat flux of approximately 150 W m-2

The influence of the ocean circulation state on ocean carbon storage and CO2 drawdown potential in an Earth system model

During the four most recent glacial cycles, atmospheric CO2 during glacial maxima has been lowered by about 90–100 ppm with respect to interglacials. There is widespread consensus that most of this carbon was partitioned in the ocean. It is, however, still debated which processes were dominant in achieving this increased carbon storage. In this paper, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to explore the sensitivity of ocean carbon storage to ocean circulation state. We carry out a set of simulations in which we run the model to pre-industrial equilibrium, but in which we achieve different states of ocean circulation by changing forcing parameters such as wind stress, ocean diffusivity and atmospheric heat diffusivity. As a consequence, the ensemble members also have different ocean carbon reservoirs, global ocean average temperatures, biological pump efficiencies and conditions for air–sea CO2 disequilibrium. We analyse changes in total ocean carbon storage and separate it into contributions by the solubility pump, the biological pump and the CO2 disequilibrium component. We also relate these contributions to differences in the strength of the ocean overturning circulation. Depending on which ocean forcing parameter is tuned, the origin of the change in carbon storage is different. When wind stress or ocean diapycnal diffusivity is changed, the response of the biological pump gives the most important effect on ocean carbon storage, whereas when atmospheric heat diffusivity or ocean isopycnal diffusivity is changed, the solubility pump and the disequilibrium component are also important and sometimes dominant. Despite this complexity, we obtain a negative linear relationship between total ocean carbon and the combined strength of the northern and southern overturning cells. This relationship is robust to different reservoirs dominating the response to different forcing mechanisms. Finally, we conduct a drawdown experiment in which we investigate the capacity for increased carbon storage by artificially maximising the efficiency of the biological pump in our ensemble members. We conclude that different initial states for an ocean model result in different capacities for ocean carbon storage due to differences in the ocean circulation state and the origin of the carbon in the initial ocean carbon reservoir. This could explain why it is difficult to achieve comparable responses of the ocean carbon pumps in model inter-comparison studies in which the initial states vary between models. We show that this effect of the initial state is quantifiable. The drawdown experiment highlights the importance of the strength of the biological pump in the control state for model studies of increased biological efficiency

A comparison of the atmospheric response to the Weddell Sea Polynya in AGCMs of varying resolutions

The Weddell Sea Polynya (WSP) is a large opening within the sea ice cover of the Weddell Sea sector. It has been a rare event in the satellite period, appearing between 1973 and 1976, and again in 2016/17. Coupled modelling studies have suggested that there may be a large-scale atmospheric response to the WSP. Here, the direct atmospheric response to the WSP is estimated from atmosphere-only numerical experiments. Three different models, the HadGEM3 UK Met Office model, the ECHAM5 Max Planck Institute model and the OpenIFS ECMWF model, each at two different resolutions, are used to test the robustness of our results. The use of large ensembles reduces the weather variability and isolates the atmospheric response. Results show a large (~100-200 Wm-2) turbulent air-sea flux anomaly above the polynya. The response to the WSP is local and of short duration (barely outlasting the WSP) with a similar magnitude and spatial pattern of lower tropospheric warming and increase in precipitation in all 6 configurations. All models show a weak decrease in surface pressure over the WSP, but this response is small (~2 hPa) in comparison to internal variability. The dynamic response is inconsistent between models and resolutions, above the boundary layer, suggesting a weak or null response that is covered by internal variability aloft. The higher resolution does not alter the pattern of the response but increases its magnitude by up ~50 % in two of the three models. The response is influenced by natural variability of the westerly jet. The models perform well against ERA5 reanalysis data for the 1974 WSP in spatial response and magnitude, showing a turbulent heat flux of approximately 150 Wm-2

Meridional Ocean Carbon Transport

The ocean's ability to take up and store CO2 is a key factor for understanding past and future climate variability. However, qualitative and quantitative understanding of surface-to-interior pathways, and how the ocean circulation affects the CO2 uptake, is limited. Consequently, how changes in ocean circulation may influence carbon uptake and storage and therefore the future climate remains ambiguous. Here we quantify the roles played by ocean circulation and various water masses in the meridional redistribution of carbon. We do so by calculating streamfunctions defined in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and latitude coordinates, using output from a coupled biogeochemical-physical model. By further separating DIC into components originating from the solubility pump and a residual including the biological pump, air-sea disequilibrium, and anthropogenic CO2, we are able to distinguish the dominant pathways of how carbon enters particular water masses. With this new tool, we show that the largest meridional carbon transport occurs in a pole-to-equator transport in the subtropical gyres in the upper ocean. We are able to show that this pole-to-equator DIC transport and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)-related DIC transport are mainly driven by the solubility pump. By contrast, the DIC transport associated with deep circulation, including that in Antarctic bottom water and Pacific deep water, is mostly driven by the biological pump. As these two pumps, as well as ocean circulation, are widely expected to be impacted by anthropogenic changes, these findings have implications for the future role of the ocean as a climate-buffering carbon reservoir