A comparison of modeling techniques to predict hydrological indices in ungauged rivers

Predicting the natural flow regime in ungauged rivers is an important challenge in water resource management and ecological research. We developed models to predict 16 hydrological indices in a river network covering the northern third of the Iberian Peninsula. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), Random Forest (RF) and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) were used and compared according to their prediction accuracy. The results showed that predictive performance varied greatly depending on the modeled hydrological attribute. The magnitude and frequency indices were predicted with excellent accuracy. In contrast, no technique was capable of developing precise models for hydrological indices of timing, duration and rate of change. This is mainly related to the lack of proper environmental databases on the scales on which these flow regime patterns are influenced. In addition, complex modeling techniques did not always outperform linear models and no single approach was optimal for all indices. ANFIS and GAMs provided the best results; however, other issues such as computational cost and the level of knowledge required to apply the method and interpret the results should be taken into account.This study was partly funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness as part of the HYDRA (Ref. BIA2015-71197) and RIVERLANDS (Ref. BIA2012-33572) projects

Modeling of coastal water contamination in Fortaleza (Northeastern Brazil)

An important tool in environmental management projects and studies due to the complexity of environmental systems, environmental modeling makes it possible to integrate many variables and processes, thereby providing a dynamic view of systems. In this study the bacteriological quality of the coastal waters of Fortaleza (Brazil) was modeled considering multiple contamination sources. Using the software SisBaHiA, the dispersion of thermotolerant coliforms and Escherichia coli from three sources of contamination (rivers, storm drains and submarine outfall) was analyzed. The models took into account variations in bacterial decay due to solar radiation and other environmental factors. Fecal pollution discharged from rivers and storm drains is transported westward by coastal currents, contaminating strips of beach water to the left of each storm drain or river. Exception to this condition only occurs on beaches protected by the breakwater of the harbor, where counterclockwise vortexes reverse this behavior. The results of the models were consistent with field measurements taken during the dry and the rainy season. Our results show that the submarine outfall plume was over 2 km from the nearest beach. The storm drains and the Maceió stream are the main factors responsible for the poor water quality on the waterfront of Fortaleza

Identification of Dominant Hydrological Mechanisms Using Bayesian Inference, Multiple Statistical Hypothesis Testing, and Flexible Models

ABSTARCT: In hydrological modeling, the identification of model mechanisms best suited for representing individual hydrological (physical) processes is of major scientific and operational interest. We present a statistical hypothesis-testing perspective on this model identification challenge and contribute a mechanism identification framework that combines: (i) Bayesian estimation of posterior probabilities of individual mechanisms from a given ensemble of model structures; (ii) a test statistic that defines a ?dominant? mechanism as a mechanism more probable than all its alternatives given observed data; and (iii) a flexible modeling framework to generate model structures using combinations of available mechanisms. The uncertainty in the test statistic is approximated using bootstrap sampling from the model ensemble. Synthetic experiments (with varying error magnitude and multiple replicates) and real data experiments are conducted using the hydrological modeling system FUSE (7 processes and 2?4 mechanisms per process yielding 624 feasible model structures) and data from the Leizarán catchment in northern Spain. The mechanism identification method is reliable: it identifies the correct mechanism as dominant in all synthetic trials where an identification is made. As data/model errors increase, statistical power (identifiability) decreases, manifesting as trials where no mechanism is identified as dominant. The real data case study results are broadly consistent with the synthetic analysis, with dominant mechanisms identified for 4 of 7 processes. Insights on which processes are most/least identifiable are also reported. The mechanism identification method is expected to contribute to broader community efforts on improving model identification and process representation in hydrology.The authors from IHCantabria acknowledge the financial support from the Government of Cantabria through the FÉNIX Program (ID 2020.03.03.322B.742.09)

Anemia de Blackfan Diamond

Introduction: Diamond-Blackfan anemia is a rare cause of anemia in the newborn and the youngest infant.Objective: to present a 6-month-old infant, diagnosed with Diamond-Blackfan anemia, with low hemoglobin levels since birth.Method: the literature on Diamond-Blackfan anemia at pediatric ages is reviewed and updated. Case report: a 6-month-old girl born from a cesarean section due to fetal distress with good birth weight, presenting a severe anemia in the neonatal period, requiring red blood cell transfusion, remaining in the neonatology service for 27 days, the patient was also assessed by the cardiologist, a congenital myocardiopathy was diagnosed, that is why she is treated and monitored by this specialty. At 35 days, hemoglobin level is repeated with a figure of 50 grams / liter. She was hospitalized in the Pediatric Hospital for a study of the anemia she suffered from, where after physical examination, complementary examinations and a collective discussion with pediatricians, cardiologists, geneticists and hematologists, it was decided to transfuse her with globules under surveillance for her myocardiopathy. Prior to transfusion, a medullogram was performed, confirming the integrity of the lines, including granulopoietic and megakaryopoietic hyperplasia with selective depression of the erythroid system and presence of proerythroblasts as the only form of this, establishing the diagnosis of certainty of Blackfan Diamond anemia.Conclusion: the complete examination of these affected infants is considered important for their phenotypic delineation and clinical diagnosis.   Introducción: la anemia de Diamond-Blackfan es una causa poco frecuente de anemia en el recién nacido y el lactante menor. Objetivo: presentar un lactante de 6 meses de edad, con el diagnostico de anemia de Diamond-Blackfan, con cifras bajas de hemoglobina desde el nacimiento. Método: se revisa y actualiza la bibliografía sobre anemia de Diamond-Blackfan en edades pediátricas Presentación del caso: se presenta una niña de 6 meses de edad producto de un parto por cesárea  por sufrimiento fetal con buen peso al nacer presentando en el periodo neonatal anemia severa, que requirió transfusión de eritrocitos, permaneciendo en el servicio de neonatología  durante 27 días, se valora además por cardiología  diagnosticándose una miocardiopatía congénita  por lo cual lleva tratamiento y seguimiento por esta especialidad  A los 35 días se repite hemoglobina con cifra de 50 gramos / litro. Se ingresa en el hospital Pediátrico para estudio de la anemia, donde después de examen físico, complementarios y discusión colectiva con pediatría cardiología, genética y hematología, se decide transfundir con glóbulos bajo vigilancia por su miocardiopatía. Previa a la transfusión se le realiza medulograma constatándose integridad  de las líneas incluso hiperplasia   granulopoyetica  y megacariopoyetica con depresión selectiva  del sistema eritroide  y presencia de proeritroblastos como única forma de este, estableciéndose  el diagnostico de certeza de anemia de Blackfan Diamond. Conclusiones: se considera importante el examen completo de estos afectados para su delineación fenotípica y diagnóstico clínico 

Anemia de Blackfan Diamond

Introduction: Diamond-Blackfan anemia is a rare cause of anemia in the newborn and the youngest infant.Objective: to present a 6-month-old infant, diagnosed with Diamond-Blackfan anemia, with low hemoglobin levels since birth.Method: the literature on Diamond-Blackfan anemia at pediatric ages is reviewed and updated. Case report: a 6-month-old girl born from a cesarean section due to fetal distress with good birth weight, presenting a severe anemia in the neonatal period, requiring red blood cell transfusion, remaining in the neonatology service for 27 days, the patient was also assessed by the cardiologist, a congenital myocardiopathy was diagnosed, that is why she is treated and monitored by this specialty. At 35 days, hemoglobin level is repeated with a figure of 50 grams / liter. She was hospitalized in the Pediatric Hospital for a study of the anemia she suffered from, where after physical examination, complementary examinations and a collective discussion with pediatricians, cardiologists, geneticists and hematologists, it was decided to transfuse her with globules under surveillance for her myocardiopathy. Prior to transfusion, a medullogram was performed, confirming the integrity of the lines, including granulopoietic and megakaryopoietic hyperplasia with selective depression of the erythroid system and presence of proerythroblasts as the only form of this, establishing the diagnosis of certainty of Blackfan Diamond anemia.Conclusion: the complete examination of these affected infants is considered important for their phenotypic delineation and clinical diagnosis.   Introducción: la anemia de Diamond-Blackfan es una causa poco frecuente de anemia en el recién nacido y el lactante menor. Objetivo: presentar un lactante de 6 meses de edad, con el diagnostico de anemia de Diamond-Blackfan, con cifras bajas de hemoglobina desde el nacimiento. Método: se revisa y actualiza la bibliografía sobre anemia de Diamond-Blackfan en edades pediátricas Presentación del caso: se presenta una niña de 6 meses de edad producto de un parto por cesárea  por sufrimiento fetal con buen peso al nacer presentando en el periodo neonatal anemia severa, que requirió transfusión de eritrocitos, permaneciendo en el servicio de neonatología  durante 27 días, se valora además por cardiología  diagnosticándose una miocardiopatía congénita  por lo cual lleva tratamiento y seguimiento por esta especialidad  A los 35 días se repite hemoglobina con cifra de 50 gramos / litro. Se ingresa en el hospital Pediátrico para estudio de la anemia, donde después de examen físico, complementarios y discusión colectiva con pediatría cardiología, genética y hematología, se decide transfundir con glóbulos bajo vigilancia por su miocardiopatía. Previa a la transfusión se le realiza medulograma constatándose integridad  de las líneas incluso hiperplasia   granulopoyetica  y megacariopoyetica con depresión selectiva  del sistema eritroide  y presencia de proeritroblastos como única forma de este, estableciéndose  el diagnostico de certeza de anemia de Blackfan Diamond. Conclusiones: se considera importante el examen completo de estos afectados para su delineación fenotípica y diagnóstico clínico 

Estudio geoarqueológico preliminar de la ocupación de la Cueva del Ocho durante el Neolítico antiguo (Complejo Kárstico del Cerro de Santiago, Cazalla de la Sierra, Sevilla)

Se lleva a cabo el estudio geoarqueológico del Perfil A de la Cueva del Ocho (CLS-12-Geos) perteneciente al Complejo Kárstico del Cerro de Santiago ubicado en el término municipal de Cazalla de la Sierra (Sevilla, España), en el sector de Ossa Morena (Macizo Hespérico Meridional), del cual se presentan los primeros resultados. El registro sedimentario del perfil analizado se interpreta como un modelo de ocupación muy rápida en cueva, con cronologías comprendidas entre 5000-4840 cal. BC y 5210-5000 cal. BC. El registro geoarqueológico muestra una ocupación más intensa al principio que se materializa en la abundante presencia de restos cerámicos con aplicación de almagra y decoración impresa sin carácter cardial, así como de numerosos restos óseos e industria lítica. El conjunto puede inscribirse dentro del Neolítico antiguo del sur de la Península Ibérica.From a geoarchaeological viewpoint it has been studied the Profile A of the Cueva del Ocho (Cave of the Eight) archaeological site (Karst complex of the Cerro de Santiago, CKCS) located at the northern Sierra Morena (in Cazalla de la Sierra, Seville, Spain), in the section of the Ossa-Morena Cambrian limestones (Meridional Hesperian Massif). This profile's sedimentary register is interpreted as a model of very short occupation settlement in cave between 5000-4840 cal. BC and 5210-5000 cal. BC, more intensive at the beginning, with abundance of rests of ceramics “a la almagra” (red ochre) and impressed potteries without Cardium features, as well as lithic and in bone industries. The assemblage has been characterized as Late Early Neolithic from the South of the Iberian Peninsula

La medicina tradicional en afecciones lumbosacras en el adulto mayor

Introduction: the methods used by Natural and Traditional Medicine are therapeutic, economical and harmless. Low back pain is a condition the elderly suffer from at certain moments throughout their lives.Objective: to determine the effectiveness of traditional medicine in lumbosacral conditions in the elderly, at Pedro Borrás Astorga University Polyclinic, from September 2016 to June 2017.Methods: an observational, analytical, case and control research was carried out with a target group of 562 old people who attended a traditional medicine consultation with low back pain, a simple random sample of 200 patients was chosen, who were separated into two groups, of 100 each of cases treated with traditional medicine and the control group treated with conventional medicine; theoretical methods were used, empirical review of clinical history, Oswestry scale and Womac index, along with statistical techniques were applied (percentage and Chi-square).Results: in both groups the ages between 60-64 years predominated, female sex prevailed, the occupation of housewives in women and agricultural workers in men, the development of symptoms using traditional medicine was satisfactory in 95 %, 36 % needed from 3 to 6 sessions with cups, 52 % from 7 to 10 sessions with cups, 88 % underwent treatment with acupressure and 48 % suffered from gastritis as an adverse reactions regarding the conventional treatment.Conclusions: traditional medicine proved to be an effective treatment for the elderly suffering from lumbosacral conditions.Introducción: los métodos empleados por la Medicina Natural y Tradicional son terapéuticos, económicos e inocuos. La lumbalgia es una afección que padecen los adultos mayores en algún momento de la vida.Objetivo: determinar la efectividad de la medicina tradicional en afecciones lumbosacras en el adulto mayor, del Policlínico Universitario Pedro Borrás Astorga, en el período de septiembre de 2016 a junio de 2017.Métodos: se realizó una investigación observacional, analítica, de casos y controles, con un universo de 562 adultos mayores que asistieron a consulta de medicina tradicional con dolor lumbosacro, se seleccionó una muestra aleatoria simple de 200 pacientes, separados en dos grupos, de 100 cada uno, el de casos que recibió tratamiento con medicina tradicional y el grupo de controles tratado con medicina convencional; se utilizaron métodos teóricos, empíricos la revisión de la historia clínica, la escala de Oswestry e índice Womac, se aplicaron técnicas estadísticas (porciento y Chi cuadrado).Resultados: predominaron en ambos grupos las edades entre 60-64 años, el sexo femenino, la ocupación de ama de casa en las féminas y trabajador agrícola en los hombres, la evolución de los síntomas utilizando la medicina tradicional resultó satisfactoria en un 95 %, el 36% utilizó de 3 a 6 sesiones con ventosas, el 52% de 7 a 10 sesiones con ventosas, el 88% recibió tratamiento con digitopuntura y un 48% presentó gastritis como reacción adversa ante el tratamiento convencional.Conclusiones: la medicina tradicional resultó ser un tratamiento efectivo para los adultos mayores aquejados de afecciones lumbosacras

Mammalian turnover as an indicator of climatic and anthropogenic landscape modification: A new Meghalayan record (Late Holocene) in northern Iberia

The Punta Lucero III cave is a natural trap where abundant vertebrate remains were accumulated during the Meghalayan (Late Holocene). To better understand the paleoenvironmental conditions in which this record was accumulated, the micromammal assemblage, comprising a minimum number of 1396 individuals belonging to 19 taxa, was studied using the Mutual Ecogeographic Range and the Habitat Weighting Method. Throughout ~2600 years, the micromammal community's quick turnover reflected a shift from patchy forests and humid meadows to open, shrubbier grasslands. The Late Holocene Thermal Maximum's humid and mild climatic conditions underwent a cooling and aridification phase, coeval with the Iron Age Cold Epoch. These concluded in a slight temperature rising, coeval with the Roman Warm Period. Macromammals experienced a shift from wild populations to domestic herds. Therefore, this work discusses a broader context for this mammalian turnover from a human cultural perspective.AB.M-A. developed part of this research as part of the ERC Consolidator Grant (SUBSILIENCE ref. 818299). We thank J.A. Delgado for his technical work on studying macromammal assemblage. Financial support was provided by the Bilbao Port Authority (Autoridad Portuaria de Bilbao) within the project “Estabilizaci´on del sector occidental de la Cantera de Punta Lucero en el Puerto de Bilbao”. We are also grateful to Juan Manuel López-García and the anonymous reviewer for their suggestions and comments that strongly improved the manuscript

DNA variation in myoMIRs of the 1, 133, and 208 families in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small RNAs that bind to mRNAs and regulate gene expression. MyoMirs are miRNAs implicated in cardiogenesis. Some MyoMirs have been found deregulated in hearts from patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). DNA variants at these miRNAs could contribute to the risk of developing hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). To test this hypothesis we used single strand conformation analysis and direct sequencing to search for DNA variants in the mir-208a, miR-208b, miR-133a-1, miR-133a-2, miR-133b, miR-1-1, and miR-1-2 genes in patients with HCM (n=245), LVH secondary to hypertension (n=120), and healthy controls (n=250). We found several nucleotide variants. Genotyping of patients and healthy controls showed significantly associations between a 133a-1 polymorphism and HCM and a 133b polymorphism and hypertensive-LVH. We concluded that rare variants in these mature miRNAs would be rarely found among HCM patients, but miR-133a-1 and 133b polymorphisms could contribute to the risk of developing cardiac hypertrophy.this work was supported by grants from the Spanish Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias-Fondos FEDER European Union (FIS-00/0172), and Red de Investigación Renal-REDINREN (RD06/0016). MP a predoctoral fellow from FICYT-Principado de Asturias. MD is the recipient of a Contrato de Apoyo a la Investigación- Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias

Assessing site quality using the National Forest Inventory

A pre-print version of the same manuscript is also available, which entitles "Assessing site quality using the National Forest Inventory"Sustainable production of wood is one of the main services provided by forest systems. Site productivity in the case of forests is often evaluated through the site quality. However, most of the works addressing the site quality have been done at local or regional scale. In this work, we aim to develop site quality models for five dominant species in Spanish forests (Fagus sylvatica, Pinus pinaster atlantica, Quercus pyrenaica, Pinus nigra, Pinus sylvestris) and create site quality maps at a national-scale from these models. First, we develop site quality models using site form (height-diameter relationship) as the reference index and the Spanish National Forest Inventory as dataset. Then, we fit spatial additive models entering physiographic and climatic variables in order to predict the site quality over the whole country. Additionally, we plot site form maps for the five species in order to describe spatial pattern in site quality at a national scale. Altitude and aspect appeared to be fundamental variables in the assessment of site quality. The accuracy of the spatial additive models ranged from 38.2% to 47.9%. The correspondence between the predicted and observed maps of site qualities is clear. Our results provide a tool which could be used by forest managers in land use planning as well as in forest policy decision-making at a national scale. We suggest that this method could be used in other countries and that the maps could be expanded to the European scale to assessing the way in which site quality varies across Europe always considering that the relationships between forest productivity and environmental variables could vary among biogeoclimatic zonesMarie Sklodowska-Curie Action, Towards a worldwide quantification of forest degradation (QUAFORD) 699884 AEI/FEDER, UE, AGL, AGL2016-76769-C2-2-R AEI/FEDER, UE, IJCI-2014-20614S