Improving predictive performance on survival in dairy cattle using an ensemble learning approach

Cow survival is a complex trait that combines traits like milk production, fertility, health and environmental factors such as farm management. This complexity makes survival difficult to predict accurately. This is probably the reason why few studies attempted to address this problem and no studies are published that use ensemble methods for this purpose. We explored if we could improve prediction of cow survival to second lactation, when predicted at five different moments in a cow's life, by combining the predictions of multiple (weak) methods in an ensemble method. We tested four ensemble methods: majority voting rule, multiple logistic regression, random forest and naive Bayes. Precision, recall, balanced accuracy, area under the curve (AUC) and gains in proportion of surviving cows in a scenario where the best 50% were selected were used to evaluate the ensemble model performance. We also calculated correlations between the ensemble models and obtained McNemar's test statistics. We compared the performance of the ensemble methods against those of the individual methods. We also tested if there was a difference in performance metrics when continuous (from 0 to 1) and binary (0 or 1) prediction outcomes were used. In general, using continuous prediction output resulted in higher performance metrics than binary ones. AUCs for models ranged from 0.561 to 0.731, with generally increasing performance at moments later in life. Precision, AUC and balanced accuracy values improved significantly for the naive Bayes and multiple logistic regression ensembles in at least one data set, although performance metrics did remain low overall. The multiple logistic regression ensemble method resulted in equal or better precision, AUC, balanced accuracy and proportion of animals surviving on all datasets and was significantly different from the other ensembles in three out of five moments. The random forest ensemble method resulted in the least significant improvement over the individual methods

Monitoring training response in young Friesian dressage horses using two different standardised exercise tests (SETs)

Most Friesian horses reach their anaerobic threshold during a standardized exercise test (SET) which requires lower intensity exercise than daily routine training.to study strengths and weaknesses of an alternative SET-protocol. Two different SETs (SETA and SETB) were applied during a 2 month training period of 9 young Friesian dressage horses. SETB alternated short episodes of canter with trot and walk, lacking long episodes of cantering, as applied in SETA. Following parameters were monitored: blood lactic acid (BLA) after cantering, average heart rate (HR) in trot and maximum HR in canter. HR and BLA of SETA and SETB were analyzed using a paired two-sided T-test and Spearman Correlation-coefficient (p* < 0.05).BLA after cantering was significantly higher in SETA compared to SETB and maximum HR in canter was significantly higher in SETA compared to SETB. The majority of horses showed a significant training response based upon longitudinal follow-up of BLA. Horses with the lowest fitness at start, displayed the largest training response. BLA was significantly lower in week 8 compared to week 0, in both SETA and SETB. A significantly decreased BLA level after cantering was noticeable in week 6 in SETA, whereas in SETB only as of week 8. In SETA a very strong correlation for BLA and average HR at trot was found throughout the entire training period, not for canter.Young Friesian horses do reach their anaerobic threshold during a SET which requires lower intensity than daily routine training. Therefore close monitoring throughout training is warranted. Longitudinal follow up of BLA and not of HR is suitable to assess training response. In the current study, horses that started with the lowest fitness level, showed the largest training response. During training monitoring HR in trot rather than in canter is advised. SETB is best suited as a template for daily training in the aerobic window.Cornelis Marinus de Bruijn, Willem Houterman, Margreet Ploeg, Bart Ducro, Berit Boshuizen, Klaartje Goethals, Elisabeth-Lidwien Verdegaal and Catherine Delesall

Elevated urinary excretion of free pyridinoline in Friesian horses suggests a breed-specific increase in collagen degradation

Background: Friesian horses are known for their high inbreeding rate resulting in several genetic diseases such as hydrocephaly and dwarfism. This last decade, several studies focused on two other presumed hereditary traits in Friesian horses: megaoesophagus and aortic rupture. The pathogenesis of these diseases remains obscure but an important role of collagen has been hypothesized. The purpose of this study was to examine possible breed-related differences in collagen catabolism. Urinary specimens from Friesian (n = 17, median age 10 years old) and Warmblood horses (n = 17, median age 10 years old) were assessed for mature collagen cross-links, i.e. pyridinoline (PYD) (=hydroxylysylpyridinoline/HP) and deoxypyridinoline (DPD) (lysylpyridinoline /LP). Solid-phase extraction was performed, followed by reversed-phase ion-paired liquid chromatography prior to tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) detection. Results: Mean urinary concentrations of free PYD, expressed as fPYD/creatinine ratio, were significantly higher in Friesian horses compared to Warmblood horses (28.5 ± 5.2 versus 22.2 ± 9.6 nmol/mmol, p = 0.02) while mean fDPD/creatinine ratios were similar in both horse breeds (3.0 ± 0.7 versus 4.6 ± 3.7 nmol/mmol, p = 0.09). Conclusions: Since DPD is considered a specific bone degradation marker and PYD is more widely distributed in connective tissues, the significant elevation in the mean PYD/DPD ratio in Friesian versus Warmblood horses (9.6 ± 1.6 versus 5.7 ± 1.8, p < 0.0001) suggests a soft tissue origin for the increased fPYD levels. Considering that a previous study found no differences in total collagen content between Friesian and Warmblood horses for tendon and aortic tissue, this indicates a higher rate of collagen degradation. The latter might, at least in part, explain the predisposition of Friesians to connective tissue disorders

Genetic diversity of a large set of horse breeds raised in France assessed by microsatellite polymorphism

After the recent publication of our article (Leroy, Genetics Selection Evolution 2009 41:5), we found several errors in the published Table Three, concerning the computation of contribution to within-breed diversity (CW). We apologize to the readers for these errors, which are corrected in the present erratum

Early prediction of phenotypic survival to the second lactation in Dutch and Flemish Holstein heifers using genomic and phenotypic data

Due to uncertainty about survival and future performance of replacement heifers, many farmers rear a surplus of heifers. By predicting survival at an early age, uncertainty about heifer survival could be reduced, and fewer replacement heifers would be needed. A dataset of 1907 Holstein heifers born between 2012 and 2013 with 50 genomic breeding values (GEBV) and various phenotypic variables was used to predict survival to second lactation, at two moments in life; at birth, and at age of 18 months. While it was not possible to reliably predict survival outcome of individual heifers, the surviving heifers ranked higher on average than non-surviving heifers at birth (0.87 (SD = 0.047) vs 0.84 (SD =0.059), and at 18 months (0.89 (SD =0.066) vs 0.85 (SD = 0.080). The best prediction of survival in both cases was obtained by combining phenotypic information and gEBV, demonstrating the potential for farmers to combine both information sources to predict the probability of survival for their replacement heifer management. Keywords: phenotypic prediction, dairy cattle, surviva

Early prediction of phenotypic survival to the second lactation in Dutch and Flemish Holstein heifers using genomic and phenotypic data

Due to uncertainty about survival and future performance of replacement heifers, many farmers rear a surplus of heifers. By predicting survival at an early age, uncertainty about heifer survival could be reduced, and fewer replacement heifers would be needed. A dataset of 1907 Holstein heifers born between 2012 and 2013 with 50 genomic breeding values (GEBV) and various phenotypic variables was used to predict survival to second lactation, at two moments in life; at birth, and at age of 18 months. While it was not possible to reliably predict survival outcome of individual heifers, the surviving heifers ranked higher on average than non-surviving heifers at birth (0.87 (SD = 0.047) vs 0.84 (SD =0.059), and at 18 months (0.89 (SD =0.066) vs 0.85 (SD = 0.080). The best prediction of survival in both cases was obtained by combining phenotypic information and gEBV, demonstrating the potential for farmers to combine both information sources to predict the probability of survival for their replacement heifer management. Keywords: phenotypic prediction, dairy cattle, surviva

Evaluation of a diagnostic ELISA for insect bite hypersensitivity in horses using recombinant Obsoletus complex allergens

Culicoides spp. of the Obsoletus complex belong to the most important species of midge, involved in causing insect bite hypersensitivity (IBH) in horses in The Netherlands. The aim of the current study was to evaluate seven different Obsoletus complex-derived recombinant allergens (Cul o 1–Cul o 7) and to compare these with Obsoletus complex whole body extract (WBE) in an IgE ELISA, using sera of 194 clinically-confirmed cases of IBH and 175 unaffected horses. The highest test accuracy was obtained with WBE, followed by Cul o 2, 3 and 5. Two ELISAs with a combination of recombinant allergens, Combi-1 (Cul o 3, 5 and 7) and Combi-2 (Cul o 1, 2, 5 and 7) were additionally performed and both resulted in high test accuracies close to that obtained with WBE. Combi-1 resulted in the best sensitivity and specificity, both 89%. Both Combi-1 and Combi-2 performed less well with samples collected in winter, but over 70% of the IBH-affected horses could still be identified. In conclusion, a combination of three Obsoletus complex recombinant allergens (Cul o 3, 5 and 7) could potentially replace Obsoletus complex WBE in an IgE ELISA for diagnosis of IBH in horses