Singular Thought

A singular thought can be characterized as a thought which is directed at just one object. The term ‘thought’ can apply to episodes of thinking, or to the content of the episode (what is thought). This paper argues that episodes of thinking can be just as singular, in the above sense, when they are directed at things that do not exist as when they are directed at things that do exist. In this sense, then, singular thoughts are not object-dependent

Attractors, Universality and Inflation

Studies of the initial conditions for inflation have conflicting predictions from exponential suppression to inevitability. At the level of phase space, this conflict arises from the competing intuitions of CPT invariance and thermodynamics. After reviewing this conflict, we enlarge the ensemble beyond phase space to include scalar potential data. We show how this leads to an important contribution from inflection point inflation, enhancing the likelihood of inflation to an inverse cubic power law. In the process, we emphasize the attractor dynamics of the gravity-scalar system and the existence of universality classes from inflection point inflation. Finally, we comment on the predictivity of inflation in light of these results.Comment: 32 pages, 8 figures. Typos and figures fixe

Quantum Jump from Singularity to Outside of Black Hole

Considering the role of black hole singularity in quantum evolution, a resolution to the firewall paradox is presented. It is emphasized that if an observer has the singularity as a part of his spacetime, then the semi-classical evolution would be non-unitary as viewed by him. Specifically, a free-falling observer inside the black hole would have a Hilbert space with non-unitary evolution; a quantum jump for particles encountering the singularity to outside of the horizon as late Hawking radiations. The non-unitariness in the jump resembles the one in collapse of wave function, but preserves entanglements. Accordingly, we elaborate the first postulate of black hole complementarity: freely falling observers who pass through the event horizon would have non-unitary evolution, while it does not have physically measurable effects for them. Besides, no information would be lost in the singularity. Taking the modified picture into account, the firewall paradox can be resolved, respecting No Drama. A by-product of our modification is that roughly half of the entropy of the black hole is released close to the end of evaporation in the shape of very hot Hawking radiation.Comment: 7 figures, v2 more comprehensive, v3 matches the published versio

The Internal Validation of a National Model of Long Distance Traffic.

During 1980/81, the Department of Transport developed a model for describing the distribution of private vehicle trips between 642 districts in Great Britain, using data from household and roadside interviews conducted in 1976 for the Regional Highways Traffic Model, and a new formulation of the gravity model, called a composite approach, in which shorter length movements were described at a finer level of zonal detail than longer movements. This report describes the results of an independent validation exercise conducted for the Department, in which the theoretical basis of the model and its the quality of its fit to base year data were examined. The report discusses model specification; input data; calibration issues; and accuracy assessment. The main problems addressed included the treatment of intrazonal and terminal costs, which was thought to be deficient; the trip-end estimates to which the model was constrained, which were shown to have substantial variability and to be biassed (though the cause of the latter could be readily removed), with some evidence of geographical under-specification; and the differences between roadside and household interview estimates. The report includes a detailed examination of the composite model specification and contains suggestions for improving the way in which such models are fitted. The main technical developments, for both theory and practice, are the methods developed for assessing the accuracy of the fitted model and for examining the quality of its fit with respect to the observed data, taking account of the variances and covariances of modelled and data values. Overall, the broad conclusion was that, whilst there appeared to be broad compatibility between modelled and onserved data in observed cells, there was clear evidence of inadequacy in certain respects, such as for example underestimation of intradistr ict trips. This work was done in co-operation with Howard Humphreys and Partners and Transportation Planning Associates, who validated the model against independent external data; their work is reported separately

A Dichotomic Analysis of the Surprise Examination Paradox

This paper presents a dichotomic analysis of the surprise examination paradox. In section 1, I analyse the surprise notion in detail. I introduce then in section 2, the distinction between a monist and dichotomic analysis of the paradox. I also present there a dichotomy leading to distinguish two basically and structurally different versions of the paradox, respectively based on a conjoint and a disjoint definition of the surprise. In section 3, I describe the solution to SEP corresponding to the conjoint definition. Lastly, I expose in section 4, the solution to SEP based on the disjoint definition

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ablative therapies in the management of liver metastases: systematic review and economic evaluation

Background: Many deaths from cancer are caused by metastatic burden. Prognosis and survival rates vary, but survival beyond 5 years of patients with untreated metastatic disease in the liver is rare. Treatment for liver metastases has largely been surgical resection, but this is feasible in only approximately 20–30% of people. Non-surgical alternatives to treat some liver metastases can include various forms of ablative therapies and other targeted treatments.Objectives: To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the different ablative and minimally invasive therapies for treating liver metastases.Data sources: Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library were searched from 1990 to September 2011. Experts were consulted and bibliographies checked.Review methods: Systematic reviews of the literature were undertaken to appraise the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ablative therapies and minimally invasive therapies used for people with liver metastases. Studies were any prospective study with sample size greater than 100 participants. A probabilistic model was developed for the economic evaluation of the technologies where data permitted.Results: The evidence assessing the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ablative and other minimally invasive therapies was limited. Nine studies of ablative therapies were included in the review; each had methodological shortcomings and few had a comparator group. One randomised controlled trial (RCT) of microwave ablation versus surgical resection was identified and showed no improvement in outcomes compared with resection. In two prospective case series studies that investigated the use of laser ablation, mean survival ranged from 41 to 58 months. One cohort study compared radiofrequency ablation with surgical resection and five case series studies also investigated the use of radiofrequency ablation. Across these studies the median survival ranged from 44 to 52 months. Seven studies of minimally invasive therapies were included in the review. Two RCTs compared chemoembolisation with chemotherapy only. Overall survival was not compared between groups and methodological shortcomings mean that conclusions are difficult to make. Two case series studies of laser ablation following chemoembolisation were also included; however, these provide little evidence of the use of these technologies in combination. Three RCTs of radioembolisation were included. Significant improvements in tumour response and time to disease progression were demonstrated; however, benefits in terms of survival were equivocal. An exploratory survival model was developed using data from the review of clinical effectiveness. The model includes separate analyses of microwave ablation compared with surgery and radiofrequency ablation compared with surgery and one of radioembolisation in conjunction with hepatic artery chemotherapy compared with hepatic artery chemotherapy alone. Microwave ablation was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £3664 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, with microwave ablation being associated with reduced cost but also with poorer outcome than surgery. Radiofrequency ablation compared with surgical resection for solitary metastases < 3 cm was associated with an ICER of –£266,767 per QALY gained, indicating that radiofrequency ablation dominates surgical resection. Radiofrequency ablation compared with surgical resection for solitary metastases ? 3 cm resulted in poorer outcomes at lower costs and a resultant ICER of £2538 per QALY gained. Radioembolisation plus hepatic artery chemotherapy compared with hepatic artery chemotherapy was associated with an ICER of £37,303 per QALY gained.Conclusions: There is currently limited high-quality research evidence upon which to base any firm decisions regarding ablative therapies for liver metastases. Further trials should compare ablative therapies with surgery, in particular. A RCT would provide the most appropriate design for undertaking any further evaluation and should include a full economic evaluation, but the group to be randomised needs careful selection.Source of funding: Funding for this study was provided by the Health Technology Assessment programme of the National Institute for Health Research

On the initial allocation of tradeable pollution permits.

The objective of this thesis is to investigate the initial allocation of pollution permits in a dynamic tradeable market. Tradeable pollution permit markets are an increasingly common method of environmental regulation and it is apparent that future schemes may have a number of repeated compliance periods. It is important to consider how and to what extent the dynamic allocation of pollution permits determines the market efficiency at the equilibrium. This objective is developed in three parts. First, Part I introduces the topic and sets out the current relationships that exist between the initial allocation of permits and market efficiency and finds strong links between the two. It is shown that markets with imperfect competition, transaction costs or multiple periods can result in links between the initial allocation and market efficiency. In Part II, a generalised model is created to investigate the optimality of dynamic permit allocations and finds the dynamic use of grandfathering (free allocation based on emissions information) permits is, in general, sub-optimal. It is argued that alternative dynamic mechanisms should be considered, such as auctions and other relative performance mechanisms. Part II is concluded by an investigation into the link between market efficiency, dynamic initial allocations and firms' lobbying over a permit allocation. Firms have the ability to determine their permit allocation by their choice of emissions and lobbying activity. It is shown that in some circumstances, lobbying activity may alter market efficiency and may result in reductions in social welfare. In Part III, an alternative dynamic allocation mechanism is considered, namely a rank-ordered contest, which can optimally allocate permits and simultaneously accomplish a predetermined secondary policy objective. The thesis concludes with a discussion of the policy implications and future work associated with this research.ESRC (PTA-030-2004-00560

Simple methods for assessing groundwater resources in low permeability areas of Africa

In many areas throughout Africa, a staggering proportion of wells and boreholes fail. Failure can occur for a number of reasons – inadequate maintenance and community involvement, poor engineering or a lack of water. Often it can be difficult to work out the exact reason after the event. However, in many geological environments the impacts of poorly sited and designed boreholes and wells are a major concern to funding agencies, implementing institutions and local communities. In such areas, good supplies of groundwater cannot be found everywhere, and boreholes and wells must be sited and designed carefully to make use of the available groundwater. To appropriately site and design water sources, the groundwater resources of an area need first to be investigated to understand how water occurs in the ground. In this manual we present some techniques that allow a quick assessment of groundwater resources without requiring much expertise or expense. Some of the techniques are old and established while others are new. However, all techniques have been tested by BGS (and others) in assessing groundwater resources in Africa. This manual does not claim to be a detailed textbook for hydrogeologists – there are enough already (see reading list at the end of the chapter). Rather it is meant as a practicalaid for those involved in the practice of rural water supply, particularly in Africa. Little training or equipment is required for the tests and they can all be carried out in a short space of time. The manual is divided into six sections. The first gives an overview of the groundwater resources of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and discusses the scope and detail of investigations required in different geological environments. The remaining chapters describe simple techniques for assessing groundwater resources, from basic reconnaissance to assessing the yield of a borehole. In the appendix are summary sheets of the most common techniques which can be photocopied and used in the field