Overview of the first HyMeX Special Observation Period over Italy: observations and model results

Abstract. The Special Observation Period (SOP1), part of the HyMeX campaign (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiments, 5 September–6 November 2012), was dedicated to heavy precipitation events and flash floods in the western Mediterranean, and three Italian hydro-meteorological monitoring sites were identified: Liguria–Tuscany, northeastern Italy and central Italy. The extraordinary deployment of advanced instrumentation, including instrumented aircrafts, and the use of several different operational weather forecast models, including hydrological models and marine models, allowed an unprecedented monitoring and analysis of high-impact weather events around the Italian hydro-meteorological sites. This activity has seen strong collaboration between the Italian scientific and operational communities. In this paper an overview of the Italian organization during SOP1 is provided, and selected Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs) are described. A significant event for each Italian target area is chosen for this analysis: IOP2 (12–13 September 2012) in northeastern Italy, IOP13 (15–16 October 2012) in central Italy and IOP19 (3–5 November 2012) in Liguria and Tuscany. For each IOP the meteorological characteristics, together with special observations and weather forecasts, are analyzed with the aim of highlighting strengths and weaknesses of the forecast modeling systems, including the hydrological impacts. The usefulness of having different weather forecast operational chains characterized by different numerical weather prediction models and/or different model set up or initial conditions is finally shown for one of the events (IOP19)

Characterizing components of uncertainty in hydrologic modeling using an ensemble approach.

In hydrologic modeling, uncertainties are known to reside in model inputs, i.e., rainfall estimates, model parameters, observations of streamflow, and in some cases in the model structure itself. Estimation of the total prediction uncertainty for a hydrologic forecast first requires knowledge of the error characteristics of input rainfall estimates. Traditionally, evaluation of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) has been accomplished by comparing remotely sensed rainfall to point rain gauge observations. In addition to errors associated with rain gauge measurements, it has been noted that sampling sizes between a typical radar pixel and a rain gauge orifice differ by about eight orders of magnitude (Droegemeier et al. 2000). It is thus highly desirable to design an objective, quantitative methodology that evaluates the skill of precipitation algorithms at the hydrologic scale of application, a watershed. QPEs from different algorithms are input to the Vflo(TM) hydrologic model. Thousands of simulations are performed in an ensemble fashion in order to "expose" each rainfall input to the entire parameter space. Probabilistic statistics are utilized to compare the predicted probability density functions (pdfs) to observations of streamflow. Results indicate the spatial variability of rainfall observed by radar is indeed important for skillful hydrologic predictions.The developed ensemble approach is also used to evaluate the propagation characteristics of error in rainfall estimates to hydrologic predictions. Predictions of peak discharge and time-integrated discharge volume are shown to be very sensitive to rainfall perturbations. Ensembles are then constructed to include the combined uncertainty in QPEs and model parameters. Several case studies are utilized to show how the total prediction uncertainty can be accurately estimated. Moreover, additional sources of uncertainty are identified for a case where simulation bounds derived from predicted pdfs do not replicate observed behavior during summer months. This may be due to inadequate parameterization (e.g., initial abstraction) or to model structure. Soil moisture observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet are introduced to reveal some explanation for conditions where the Green and Ampt submodel may not adequately characterize the infiltration behavior during summertime low flows

Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

Abstract. Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band) has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band) and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative \\mbox{integrated} decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) and the Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center hydrologic and hydraulic modelling chain. The characteristics of this tool make it ideal to support flood monitoring and forecasting within urban environment and small-scale basins. Preliminary results, carried out during a field campaign in Moldova, showed that the mini-radar based hydro-meteorological forecasting system can constitute a suitable solution for local flood warning and civil flood protection applications

2. PHYSICAL PARAMETERIZATIONS IN MODELS 1

OF WGNE/GMPP ACTIVITIES

Observational studies of scatterometer ocean vector winds in the presence of dynamic air-sea interactions

Ocean vector wind measurements produced by satellite scatterometers are used in many applications across many disciplines, from forcing ocean circulation models and improving weather forecasts, to aiding in rescue operations and helping marine management services, and even mapping energy resources. However, a scatterometer does not in fact measure wind directly; received radar backscatter is proportional to the roughness of the ocean\u27s surface, which is primarily modified by wind speed and direction. As scatterometry has evolved in recent decades, highly calibrated geophysical model functions have been designed to transform this received backscatter into vector winds. Because these products are used in so many applications, it is crucial to understand any limitations of this process. For instance, a number of assumptions are routinely invoked when interpreting scatterometer retrievals in areas of complex air-sea dynamics without, perhaps, sufficient justification from supporting observations. This dissertation uses satellite data, in situ measurements, and model simulations to evaluate these assumptions. Robustness is assured by using multiple types of satellite scatterometer data from different sensors and of different resolutions, including an experimental ultra-high resolution product that first required validation in the region of study. After this validation survey, a subsequent investigation used the multiple data resolutions to focus on the influence of ocean surface currents on scatterometer retrievals. Collocated scatterometer and buoy wind data along with buoy surface current measurements support the theory that scatterometer winds respond to the relative motion of the ocean surface; in other words, that they can effectively be considered current-relative, as has been generally assumed. Another major control on scatterometer retrievals is atmospheric stability, which affects both surface roughness and wind shear. A study using wind, stress, temperature, and pressure measurements at a mooring in the Gulf Stream as well as collocated scatterometer data proved that the scatterometer responds as expected to changes in stability. Therefore, scatterometer retrievals can effectively be used to evaluate changes in wind due to speed adjustment over temperature fronts. Given the conclusions of these individual studies, this work collectively solidifies decades of theory and validates the use of scatterometer winds in areas of complex air-sea interaction