535 research outputs found
Forecasting bus passenger flows by using a clustering-based support vector regression approach
As a significant component of the intelligent transportation system, forecasting bus passenger
flows plays a key role in resource allocation, network planning, and frequency setting. However, it remains
challenging to recognize high fluctuations, nonlinearity, and periodicity of bus passenger flows due to
varied destinations and departure times. For this reason, a novel forecasting model named as affinity
propagation-based support vector regression (AP-SVR) is proposed based on clustering and nonlinear
simulation. For the addressed approach, a clustering algorithm is first used to generate clustering-based
intervals. A support vector regression (SVR) is then exploited to forecast the passenger flow for each
cluster, with the use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) for obtaining the optimized parameters. Finally,
the prediction results of the SVR are rearranged by chronological order rearrangement. The proposed model
is tested using real bus passenger data from a bus line over four months. Experimental results demonstrate
that the proposed model performs better than other peer models in terms of absolute percentage error and
mean absolute percentage error. It is recommended that the deterministic clustering technique with stable
cluster results (AP) can improve the forecasting performance significantly.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio
Artificial intelligence in wind speed forecasting: a review
Wind energy production has had accelerated growth in recent years, reaching an annual increase of 17% in 2021. Wind speed plays a crucial role in the stability required for power grid operation. However, wind intermittency makes accurate forecasting a complicated process. Implementing new technologies has allowed the development of hybrid models and techniques, improving wind speed forecasting accuracy. Additionally, statistical and artificial intelligence methods, especially artificial neural networks, have been applied to enhance the results. However, there is a concern about identifying the main factors influencing the forecasting process and providing a basis for estimation with artificial neural network models. This paper reviews and classifies the forecasting models used in recent years according to the input model type, the pre-processing and post-processing technique, the artificial neural network model, the prediction horizon, the steps ahead number, and the evaluation metric. The research results indicate that artificial neural network (ANN)-based models can provide accurate wind forecasting and essential information about the specific location of potential wind use for a power plant by understanding the future wind speed values
Deep Learning Techniques in Extreme Weather Events: A Review
Extreme weather events pose significant challenges, thereby demanding
techniques for accurate analysis and precise forecasting to mitigate its
impact. In recent years, deep learning techniques have emerged as a promising
approach for weather forecasting and understanding the dynamics of extreme
weather events. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the
state-of-the-art deep learning in the field. We explore the utilization of deep
learning architectures, across various aspects of weather prediction such as
thunderstorm, lightning, precipitation, drought, heatwave, cold waves and
tropical cyclones. We highlight the potential of deep learning, such as its
ability to capture complex patterns and non-linear relationships. Additionally,
we discuss the limitations of current approaches and highlight future
directions for advancements in the field of meteorology. The insights gained
from this systematic review are crucial for the scientific community to make
informed decisions and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events
Novel Computationally Intelligent Machine Learning Algorithms for Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery
This thesis addresses three major issues in data mining regarding feature subset selection in large dimensionality domains, plausible reconstruction of incomplete data in cross-sectional applications, and forecasting univariate time series. For the automated selection of an optimal subset of features in real time, we present an improved hybrid algorithm: SAGA. SAGA combines the ability to avoid being trapped in local minima of Simulated Annealing with the very high convergence rate of the crossover operator of Genetic Algorithms, the strong local search ability of greedy algorithms and the high computational efficiency of generalized regression neural networks (GRNN). For imputing missing values and forecasting univariate time series, we propose a homogeneous neural network ensemble. The proposed ensemble consists of a committee of Generalized Regression Neural Networks (GRNNs) trained on different subsets of features generated by SAGA and the predictions of base classifiers are combined by a fusion rule. This approach makes it possible to discover all important interrelations between the values of the target variable and the input features. The proposed ensemble scheme has two innovative features which make it stand out amongst ensemble learning algorithms: (1) the ensemble makeup is optimized automatically by SAGA; and (2) GRNN is used for both base classifiers and the top level combiner classifier. Because of GRNN, the proposed ensemble is a dynamic weighting scheme. This is in contrast to the existing ensemble approaches which belong to the simple voting and static weighting strategy. The basic idea of the dynamic weighting procedure is to give a higher reliability weight to those scenarios that are similar to the new ones. The simulation results demonstrate the validity of the proposed ensemble model
Hybrid Model for Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Based on Error Correction Using Chaotic Time Series
open access articleShort-term water demand forecasting plays an important role in smart management and real-time simulation of water distribution systems (WDSs). This paper proposes a hybrid model for the short-term forecasting in the horizon of one day with 15 minute time steps, which improves the forecasting accuracy by adding an error correction module to the initial forecasting model. The initial forecasting model is firstly established based on the least square support vector machine (LSSVM), the errors time series obtained by comparing the observed values and the initial forecasted values is next transformed into chaotic time series, and then the error correction model is established by the LSSVM method to forecast errors at the next time step. The hybrid model is tested on three real-world district metering areas (DMAs) in Beijing, China, with different demand patterns. The results show that, with the help of the error correction module, the hybrid model reduced the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of forecasted demand from (5.64%, 4.06%, 5.84%) to (4.84%, 3.15%, 3.47%) for the three DMAs, compared with using LSSVM without error correction. Therefore, the proposed hybrid model provides a better solution for short-term water demand forecasting on the tested cases
Application of Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Medium-Term Electrical Energy Forecasting: A Case Study for a Regional Hospital
Electrical energy forecasting is crucial for efficient, reliable, and economic operations of hospitals due to serving 365 days a year, 24/7, and they require round-the-clock energy. An accurate prediction of energy consumption is particularly required for energy management, maintenance scheduling, and future renewable investment planning of
large facilities. The main objective of this study is to forecast electrical energy demand by performing and comparing well-known techniques, which are frequently applied to short-term electrical energy forecasting problem in the literature, such as multiple linear regression as a statistical technique and artificial intelligence techniques including
artificial neural networks containing multilayer perceptron neural networks and radial basis function networks, and support vector machines through a case study of a regional hospital in the medium-term horizon. In this study, a state-of-the-art literature review of medium-term electrical energy forecasting, data set information, fundamentals of statistical and artificial intelligence techniques, analyses for aforementioned methodologies, and the obtained results are described meticulously. Consequently, support vector machines model with a Gaussian kernel has the best validation performance, and the study revealed that seasonality has a dominant influence on forecasting performance. Hence heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems cover the major part of electrical energy consumption of the regional hospital. Besides historical electrical energy consumption, outdoor mean temperature and calendar variables play a significant role in achieving accurate results. Furthermore, the study also unveiled that the number of patients is steady over the years with only small deviations and have no significant influence on medium-term electrical energy forecasting
A Survey on Data Mining Techniques Applied to Energy Time Series Forecasting
Data mining has become an essential tool during the last decade to analyze large sets of data. The variety of techniques it includes and the successful results obtained in many application fields, make this family of approaches powerful and widely used. In particular, this work explores the application of these techniques to time series forecasting. Although classical statistical-based methods provides reasonably good results, the result of the application of data mining outperforms those of classical ones. Hence, this work faces two main challenges: (i) to provide a compact mathematical formulation of the mainly used techniques; (ii) to review the latest works of time series forecasting and, as case study, those related to electricity price and demand markets.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad TIN2014-55894-C2-RJunta de Andalucía P12- TIC-1728Universidad Pablo de Olavide APPB81309
Big Data Analysis application in the renewable energy market: wind power
Entre as enerxías renovables, a enerxía eólica e unha das tecnoloxías
mundiais de rápido crecemento. Non obstante, esta incerteza debería minimizarse para programar e xestionar
mellor os activos de xeración tradicionais para compensar a falta de electricidade nas redes electricas. A aparición
de técnicas baseadas en datos ou aprendizaxe automática deu a capacidade de proporcionar predicións espaciais
e temporais de alta resolución da velocidade e potencia do vento. Neste traballo desenvólvense tres modelos
diferentes de ANN, abordando tres grandes problemas na predición de series de datos con esta técnica: garantía
de calidade de datos e imputación de datos non válidos, asignación de hiperparámetros e selección de funcións.
Os modelos desenvolvidos baséanse en técnicas de agrupación, optimización e procesamento de sinais para
proporcionar predicións de velocidade e potencia do vento a curto e medio prazo (de minutos a horas)
Estimating the concentration of physico chemical parameters in hydroelectric power plant reservoir
The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) defines
the amazon region and adjacent areas, such as the Pantanal, as world heritage territories, since
they possess unique flora and fauna and great biodiversity. Unfortunately, these regions have
increasingly been suffering from anthropogenic impacts. One of the main anthropogenic impacts
in the last decades has been the construction of hydroelectric power plants.
As a result, dramatic altering of these ecosystems has been observed, including changes in
water levels, decreased oxygenation and loss of downstream organic matter, with consequent
intense land use and population influxes after the filling and operation of these reservoirs. This,
in turn, leads to extreme loss of biodiversity in these areas, due to the large-scale deforestation.
The fishing industry in place before construction of dams and reservoirs, for example, has become
much more intense, attracting large populations in search of work, employment and income.
Environmental monitoring is fundamental for reservoir management, and several studies
around the world have been performed in order to evaluate the water quality of these ecosystems.
The Brazilian Amazon, in particular, goes through well defined annual hydrological cycles, which
are very importante since their study aids in monitoring anthropogenic environmental impacts
and can lead to policy and decision making with regard to environmental management of this
area. The water quality of amazon reservoirs is greatly influenced by this defined hydrological
cycle, which, in turn, causes variations of microbiological, physical and chemical characteristics.
Eutrophication, one of the main processes leading to water deterioration in lentic environments,
is mostly caused by anthropogenic activities, such as the releases of industrial and domestic
effluents into water bodies.
Physico-chemical water parameters typically related to eutrophication are, among others,
chlorophyll-a levels, transparency and total suspended solids, which can, thus, be used to assess
the eutrophic state of water bodies.
Usually, these parameters must be investigated by going out to the field and manually
measuring water transparency with the use of a Secchi disk, and taking water samples to the
laboratory in order to obtain chlorophyll-a and total suspended solid concentrations. These
processes are time- consuming and require trained personnel. However, we have proposed other
techniques to environmental monitoring studies which do not require fieldwork, such as remote
sensing and computational intelligence.
Simulations in different reservoirs were performed to determine a relationship between these
physico-chemical parameters and the spectral response. Based on the in situ measurements,
empirical models were established to relate the reflectance of the reservoir measured by the
satellites. The images were calibrated and corrected atmospherically.
Statistical analysis using error estimation was used to evaluate the most accurate methodology.
The Neural Networks were trained by hydrological cycle, and were useful to estimate the physicalchemical
parameters of the water from the reflectance of visible bands and NIR of satellite images,
with better results for the period with few clouds in the regions analyzed.
The present study shows the application of wavelet neural network to estimate water quality
parameters using concentration of the water samples collected in the Amazon reservoir and Cefni
reservoir, UK. Sattelite imagens from Landsats and Sentinel-2 were used to train the ANN by
hydrological cycle.
The trained ANNs demonstrated good results between observed and estimated after Atmospheric
corrections in satellites images. The ANNs showed in the results are useful to estimate
these concentrations using remote sensing and wavelet transform for image processing.
Therefore, the techniques proposed and applied in the present study are noteworthy since
they can aid in evaluating important physico-chemical parameters, which, in turn, allows for identification of possible anthropogenic impacts, being relevant in environmental management
and policy decision-making processes.
The tests results showed that the predicted values have good accurate. Improving efficiency
to monitor water quality parameters and confirm the reliability and accuracy of the approaches
proposed for monitoring water reservoirs.
This thesis contributes to the evaluation of the accuracy of different methods in the estimation
of physical-chemical parameters, from satellite images and artificial neural networks. For future
work, the accuracy of the results can be improved by adding more satellite images and testing
new neural networks with applications in new water reservoirs
Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting with Machine Learning
Project Work presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced Analytics, specialization in Business AnalyticsAn accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is one of the most critical inputs for power plant units’
planning commitment. STLF reduces the overall planning uncertainty added by the intermittent
production of renewable sources; thus, it helps to minimize the hydro-thermal electricity production
costs in a power grid. Although there is some research in the field and even several research
applications, there is a continual need to improve forecasts. This project proposes a set of machine
learning (ML) models to improve the accuracy of 168 hours forecasts. The developed models employ
features from multiple sources, such as historical load, weather, and holidays. Of the five ML models
developed and tested in various load profile contexts, the Extreme Gradient Boosting Regressor
(XGBoost) algorithm showed the best results, surpassing previous historical weekly predictions based
on neural networks. Additionally, because XGBoost models are based on an ensemble of decision
trees, it facilitated the model’s interpretation, which provided a relevant additional result, the
features’ importance in the forecasting
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