A Machine Learning-Based Framework for Clustering Residential Electricity Load Profiles to Enhance Demand Response Programs

Load shapes derived from smart meter data are frequently employed to analyze daily energy consumption patterns, particularly in the context of applications like Demand Response (DR). Nevertheless, one of the most important challenges to this endeavor lies in identifying the most suitable consumer clusters with similar consumption behaviors. In this paper, we present a novel machine learning based framework in order to achieve optimal load profiling through a real case study, utilizing data from almost 5000 households in London. Four widely used clustering algorithms are applied specifically K-means, K-medoids, Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering and Density-based Spatial Clustering. An empirical analysis as well as multiple evaluation metrics are leveraged to assess those algorithms. Following that, we redefine the problem as a probabilistic classification one, with the classifier emulating the behavior of a clustering algorithm,leveraging Explainable AI (xAI) to enhance the interpretability of our solution. According to the clustering algorithm analysis the optimal number of clusters for this case is seven. Despite that, our methodology shows that two of the clusters, almost 10\% of the dataset, exhibit significant internal dissimilarity and thus it splits them even further to create nine clusters in total. The scalability and versatility of our solution makes it an ideal choice for power utility companies aiming to segment their users for creating more targeted Demand Response programs.Comment: 29 pages, 19 figure

Exploraty Multivariate Statistical Methods Applied to Pharmaceutical Industry CRM Data

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de InformaçãoAn analysis of the current CRM systems in the Pharmaceutical Industry, the way the pharmaceutical companies developed them and a comparison between Europe and United States was done in this study. Overall the CRM in the pharmaceutical industry is far-behind, when compared with other business areas, like consumer goods, finance (banking) or insurance companies, being pharmaceutical CRM specifically less developed in Europe when compared to United States. One of the big obstacles for the success of CRM in the pharmaceutical industry is the poor analytics applied to the current CRM programs. Improving Sales and Marketing Effectiveness by apllying, multivariate exploratory statistical methods, specifically Factor Analysis and Clustering into pharmaceutical CRM data from a Portuguese pharmaceutical company was the main goal of this thesis. Their overall usefulness when applied to the business was demonstrated, and specifically in relation to the cluster methods, SOMs outperformed the hierarchical methods by producing a more meaningful business solution

Analytical customer relationship management in retailing supported by data mining techniques

Tese de doutoramento. Engenharia Industrial e Gestão. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 201

Dynamic segmentation techniques applied to load profiles of electric energy consumption from domestic users

[EN] The electricity sector is currently undergoing a process of liberalization and separation of roles, which is being implemented under the regulatory auspices of each Member State of the European Union and, therefore, with different speeds, perspectives and objectives that must converge on a common horizon, where Europe will benefit from an interconnected energy market in which producers and consumers can participate in free competition. This process of liberalization and separation of roles involves two consequences or, viewed another way, entails a major consequence from which other immediate consequence, as a necessity, is derived. The main consequence is the increased complexity in the management and supervision of a system, the electrical, increasingly interconnected and participatory, with connection of distributed energy sources, much of them from renewable sources, at different voltage levels and with different generation capacity at any point in the network. From this situation the other consequence is derived, which is the need to communicate information between agents, reliably, safely and quickly, and that this information is analyzed in the most effective way possible, to form part of the processes of decision taking that improve the observability and controllability of a system which is increasing in complexity and number of agents involved. With the evolution of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), and the investments both in improving existing measurement and communications infrastructure, and taking the measurement and actuation capacity to a greater number of points in medium and low voltage networks, the availability of data that informs of the state of the network is increasingly higher and more complete. All these systems are part of the so-called Smart Grids, or intelligent networks of the future, a future which is not so far. One such source of information comes from the energy consumption of customers, measured on a regular basis (every hour, half hour or quarter-hour) and sent to the Distribution System Operators from the Smart Meters making use of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). This way, there is an increasingly amount of information on the energy consumption of customers, being stored in Big Data systems. This growing source of information demands specialized techniques which can take benefit from it, extracting a useful and summarized knowledge from it. This thesis deals with the use of this information of energy consumption from Smart Meters, in particular on the application of data mining techniques to obtain temporal patterns that characterize the users of electrical energy, grouping them according to these patterns in a small number of groups or clusters, that allow evaluating how users consume energy, both during the day and during a sequence of days, allowing to assess trends and predict future scenarios. For this, the current techniques are studied and, proving that the current works do not cover this objective, clustering or dynamic segmentation techniques applied to load profiles of electric energy consumption from domestic users are developed. These techniques are tested and validated on a database of hourly energy consumption values for a sample of residential customers in Spain during years 2008 and 2009. The results allow to observe both the characterization in consumption patterns of the different types of residential energy consumers, and their evolution over time, and to assess, for example, how the regulatory changes that occurred in Spain in the electricity sector during those years influenced in the temporal patterns of energy consumption.[ES] El sector eléctrico se halla actualmente sometido a un proceso de liberalización y separación de roles, que está siendo aplicado bajo los auspicios regulatorios de cada Estado Miembro de la Unión Europea y, por tanto, con distintas velocidades, perspectivas y objetivos que deben confluir en un horizonte común, en donde Europa se beneficiará de un mercado energético interconectado, en el cual productores y consumidores podrán participar en libre competencia. Este proceso de liberalización y separación de roles conlleva dos consecuencias o, visto de otra manera, conlleva una consecuencia principal de la cual se deriva, como necesidad, otra consecuencia inmediata. La consecuencia principal es el aumento de la complejidad en la gestión y supervisión de un sistema, el eléctrico, cada vez más interconectado y participativo, con conexión de fuentes distribuidas de energía, muchas de ellas de origen renovable, a distintos niveles de tensión y con distinta capacidad de generación, en cualquier punto de la red. De esta situación se deriva la otra consecuencia, que es la necesidad de comunicar información entre los distintos agentes, de forma fiable, segura y rápida, y que esta información sea analizada de la forma más eficaz posible, para que forme parte de los procesos de toma de decisiones que mejoran la observabilidad y controlabilidad de un sistema cada vez más complejo y con más agentes involucrados. Con el avance de las Tecnologías de Información y Comunicaciones (TIC), y las inversiones tanto en mejora de la infraestructura existente de medida y comunicaciones, como en llevar la obtención de medidas y la capacidad de actuación a un mayor número de puntos en redes de media y baja tensión, la disponibilidad de datos sobre el estado de la red es cada vez mayor y más completa. Todos estos sistemas forman parte de las llamadas Smart Grids, o redes inteligentes del futuro, un futuro ya no tan lejano. Una de estas fuentes de información proviene de los consumos energéticos de los clientes, medidos de forma periódica (cada hora, media hora o cuarto de hora) y enviados hacia las Distribuidoras desde los contadores inteligentes o Smart Meters, mediante infraestructura avanzada de medida o Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). De esta forma, cada vez se tiene una mayor cantidad de información sobre los consumos energéticos de los clientes, almacenada en sistemas de Big Data. Esta cada vez mayor fuente de información demanda técnicas especializadas que sepan aprovecharla, extrayendo un conocimiento útil y resumido de la misma. La presente Tesis doctoral versa sobre el uso de esta información de consumos energéticos de los contadores inteligentes, en concreto sobre la aplicación de técnicas de minería de datos (data mining) para obtener patrones temporales que caractericen a los usuarios de energía eléctrica, agrupándolos según estos mismos patrones en un número reducido de grupos o clusters, que permiten evaluar la forma en que los usuarios consumen la energía, tanto a lo largo del día como durante una secuencia de días, permitiendo evaluar tendencias y predecir escenarios futuros. Para ello se estudian las técnicas actuales y, comprobando que los trabajos actuales no cubren este objetivo, se desarrollan técnicas de clustering o segmentación dinámica aplicadas a curvas de carga de consumo eléctrico diario de clientes domésticos. Estas técnicas se prueban y validan sobre una base de datos de consumos energéticos horarios de una muestra de clientes residenciales en España durante los años 2008 y 2009. Los resultados permiten observar tanto la caracterización en consumos de los distintos tipos de consumidores energéticos residenciales, como su evolución en el tiempo, y permiten evaluar, por ejemplo, cómo influenciaron en los patrones temporales de consumos los cambios regulatorios que se produjeron en España en el sector eléctrico durante esos años.[CA] El sector elèctric es troba actualment sotmès a un procés de liberalització i separació de rols, que s'està aplicant davall els auspicis reguladors de cada estat membre de la Unió Europea i, per tant, amb distintes velocitats, perspectives i objectius que han de confluir en un horitzó comú, on Europa es beneficiarà d'un mercat energètic interconnectat, en el qual productors i consumidors podran participar en lliure competència. Aquest procés de liberalització i separació de rols comporta dues conseqüències o, vist d'una altra manera, comporta una conseqüència principal de la qual es deriva, com a necessitat, una altra conseqüència immediata. La conseqüència principal és l'augment de la complexitat en la gestió i supervisió d'un sistema, l'elèctric, cada vegada més interconnectat i participatiu, amb connexió de fonts distribuïdes d'energia, moltes d'aquestes d'origen renovable, a distints nivells de tensió i amb distinta capacitat de generació, en qualsevol punt de la xarxa. D'aquesta situació es deriva l'altra conseqüència, que és la necessitat de comunicar informació entre els distints agents, de forma fiable, segura i ràpida, i que aquesta informació siga analitzada de la manera més eficaç possible, perquè forme part dels processos de presa de decisions que milloren l'observabilitat i controlabilitat d'un sistema cada vegada més complex i amb més agents involucrats. Amb l'avanç de les tecnologies de la informació i les comunicacions (TIC), i les inversions, tant en la millora de la infraestructura existent de mesura i comunicacions, com en el trasllat de l'obtenció de mesures i capacitat d'actuació a un nombre més gran de punts en xarxes de mitjana i baixa tensió, la disponibilitat de dades sobre l'estat de la xarxa és cada vegada major i més completa. Tots aquests sistemes formen part de les denominades Smart Grids o xarxes intel·ligents del futur, un futur ja no tan llunyà. Una d'aquestes fonts d'informació prové dels consums energètics dels clients, mesurats de forma periòdica (cada hora, mitja hora o quart d'hora) i enviats cap a les distribuïdores des dels comptadors intel·ligents o Smart Meters, per mitjà d'infraestructura avançada de mesura o Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). D'aquesta manera, cada vegada es té una major quantitat d'informació sobre els consums energètics dels clients, emmagatzemada en sistemes de Big Data. Aquesta cada vegada major font d'informació demanda tècniques especialitzades que sàpiguen aprofitar-la, extraient-ne un coneixement útil i resumit. La present tesi doctoral versa sobre l'ús d'aquesta informació de consums energètics dels comptadors intel·ligents, en concret sobre l'aplicació de tècniques de mineria de dades (data mining) per a obtenir patrons temporals que caracteritzen els usuaris d'energia elèctrica, agrupant-los segons aquests mateixos patrons en una quantitat reduïda de grups o clusters, que permeten avaluar la forma en què els usuaris consumeixen l'energia, tant al llarg del dia com durant una seqüència de dies, i que permetent avaluar tendències i predir escenaris futurs. Amb aquesta finalitat, s'estudien les tècniques actuals i, en comprovar que els treballs actuals no cobreixen aquest objectiu, es desenvolupen tècniques de clustering o segmentació dinàmica aplicades a corbes de càrrega de consum elèctric diari de clients domèstics. Aquestes tècniques es proven i validen sobre una base de dades de consums energètics horaris d'una mostra de clients residencials a Espanya durant els anys 2008 i 2009. Els resultats permeten observar tant la caracterització en consums dels distints tipus de consumidors energètics residencials, com la seua evolució en el temps, i permeten avaluar, per exemple, com van influenciar en els patrons temporals de consums els canvis reguladors que es van produir a Espanya en el sector elèctric durant aquests anys.Benítez Sánchez, IJ. (2015). Dynamic segmentation techniques applied to load profiles of electric energy consumption from domestic users [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/59236TESI

Clustering Methods for Network Data Analysis in Programming

In the modern world, data volumes are constantly increasing, and clustering has become an essential tool for identifying patterns and regularities in large datasets. The relevance of this study is associated with the growing need for effective data analysis methods in programming. The objective is to evaluate different clustering techniques within the programming domain and explore their suitability for analysing a wide range of datasets. Inductive and deductive methodologies, concrete illustrations, and visual techniques were employed. The clustering techniques were implemented using RStudio and Matlab tools. The study's findings facilitated the identification of crucial attributes of clustering techniques, including hierarchical structure, cluster quantity, and similarity metrics. The application of several data analysis and visualisation approaches, including k-means, c-means, hierarchical, least spanning tree, and linked component extraction, was illustrated. This study elucidated the clustering approaches that may be optimally employed in various contexts, resulting in enhanced precision in analyses and data-informed decision-making. The study's practical significance is in enhancing programmers' methodological toolset with tools for data analysis and processing

Business Process Maturity at Agricultural Commodities Company

The agricultural commodities company nowadays strive to keep transforming their business processes in accordance with the fast changing demands to survive the intense global competition. In an attempt to provide stakeholder with an insight business process, this paper investigates how to model business processes with Business Process Modelling Notation and assesses the process maturity using Gartner�s model. This research is based on an in-depth observation at purchasing and production division of agricultural commodities company. It is found the business process model presents the knowledge from business in existing context.The other findings show the maturity level of the people is on phase 1, the maturity level of IT achieves phase including strategic alignment, culture and leadership, governance and methods have already arrived phase 2. These findings will help company to do big planning for improvement in the future

A Simulation Model for Strategic Planning In Asset Management of Electricity Distribution Network

Asset management of electricity distribution network is required in order to improve the network reliability so as to reduce electricity energy distribution losses. Due to strategic asset management requires long-term predictions; it would require a simulation model. Simulation of asset management is an approach to predict the consequences of long-term financing on maintenance and renewal strategies in electrical energy distribution networks. In this research, the simulation method used is System Dynamics based on consideration that this method enables us to consider internal and external influenced factors. To obtain the model parameter, we utilized PLN Pamekasan for the case study. The results showed the reduction of low voltage network assets condition on average in the range 6% per year, the average decline in the transformer condition is approximately 6.6% per year, and the average decline in the condition of medium voltage network assets is approximately 4.4% per year. In general, the average technical losses average of 1,359,981.60 KWH / month or about 16,319,779.24 KWH / year

AI in marketing, consumer research and psychology: A systematic literature review and research agenda

This study is the first to provide an integrated view on the body of knowledge of artificial intelligence (AI) published in the marketing, consumer research, and psychology literature. By leveraging a systematic literature review using a data-driven approach and quantitative methodology (including bibliographic coupling), this study provides an overview of the emerging intellectual structure of AI research in the three bodies of literature examined. We identified eight topical clusters: (1) memory and computational logic; (2) decision making and cognitive processes; (3) neural networks; (4) machine learning and linguistic analysis; (5) social media and text mining; (6) social media content analytics; (7) technology acceptance and adoption; and (8) big data and robots. Furthermore, we identified a total of 412 theoretical lenses used in these studies with the most frequently used being: (1) the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology; (2) game theory; (3) theory of mind; (4) theory of planned behavior; (5) computational theories; (6) behavioral reasoning theory; (7) decision theories; and (8) evolutionary theory. Finally, we propose a research agenda to advance the scholarly debate on AI in the three literatures studied with an emphasis on cross-fertilization of theories used across fields, and neglected research topics