Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling:the UncertWeb framework

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed ‘Model Web’. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models

Real-world Machine Learning Systems: A survey from a Data-Oriented Architecture Perspective

Machine Learning models are being deployed as parts of real-world systems with the upsurge of interest in artificial intelligence. The design, implementation, and maintenance of such systems are challenged by real-world environments that produce larger amounts of heterogeneous data and users requiring increasingly faster responses with efficient resource consumption. These requirements push prevalent software architectures to the limit when deploying ML-based systems. Data-oriented Architecture (DOA) is an emerging concept that equips systems better for integrating ML models. DOA extends current architectures to create data-driven, loosely coupled, decentralised, open systems. Even though papers on deployed ML-based systems do not mention DOA, their authors made design decisions that implicitly follow DOA. The reasons why, how, and the extent to which DOA is adopted in these systems are unclear. Implicit design decisions limit the practitioners' knowledge of DOA to design ML-based systems in the real world. This paper answers these questions by surveying real-world deployments of ML-based systems. The survey shows the design decisions of the systems and the requirements these satisfy. Based on the survey findings, we also formulate practical advice to facilitate the deployment of ML-based systems. Finally, we outline open challenges to deploying DOA-based systems that integrate ML models.Comment: Under revie