Improving Safety-Critical Systems by Visual Analysis

The importance analysis provides a means of analyzing the contribution of potential low-level system failures to identify and assess vulnerabilities of safety-critical systems. Common approaches attempt to enhance the system safety by addressing vulnerabilities using an iterative analysis process, while considering relevant constraints, e.g., cost, for optimizing the improvements. Typically, data regarding the analysis process is presented across several views with few interactive associations among them. Consequently, this hampers the identification of meaningful information supporting the decision making process. In this paper, we propose a visualization system that visually supports engineers in identifying proper solutions. The visualization integrates a decision tree with a plot representing the cause-effect relationship between the improvement ideas of vulnerabilities and the resulting risk reduction of system. Associating a component fault tree view with the plot allows to maintain helpful context information. The introduced visualization approach enables system and safety engineers to identify and analyze optimal solutions facilitating the improvement of the overall system safety

On the role of pre and post-processing in environmental data mining

The quality of discovered knowledge is highly depending on data quality. Unfortunately real data use to contain noise, uncertainty, errors, redundancies or even irrelevant information. The more complex is the reality to be analyzed, the higher the risk of getting low quality data. Knowledge Discovery from Databases (KDD) offers a global framework to prepare data in the right form to perform correct analyses. On the other hand, the quality of decisions taken upon KDD results, depend not only on the quality of the results themselves, but on the capacity of the system to communicate those results in an understandable form. Environmental systems are particularly complex and environmental users particularly require clarity in their results. In this paper some details about how this can be achieved are provided. The role of the pre and post processing in the whole process of Knowledge Discovery in environmental systems is discussed

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science

Identifying attack surfaces in the evolving space industry using reference architectures

The space environment is currently undergoing a substantial change and many new entrants to the market are deploying devices, satellites and systems in space; this evolution has been termed as NewSpace. The change is complicated by technological developments such as deploying machine learning based autonomous space systems and the Internet of Space Things (IoST). In the IoST, space systems will rely on satellite-to-x communication and interactions with wider aspects of the ground segment to a greater degree than existing systems. Such developments will inevitably lead to a change in the cyber security threat landscape of space systems. Inevitably, there will be a greater number of attack vectors for adversaries to exploit, and previously infeasible threats can be realised, and thus require mitigation. In this paper, we present a reference architecture (RA) that can be used to abstractly model in situ applications of this new space landscape. The RA specifies high-level system components and their interactions. By instantiating the RA for two scenarios we demonstrate how to analyse the attack surface using attack trees

A novel method for safety analysis of Cyber-Physical Systems - Application to a ship exhaust gas scrubber system

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) represent a systems category developed and promoted in the maritime industry to automate functions and system operations. In this study, a novel Combinatorial Approach for Safety Analysis is presented, which addresses the traditional safety methods’ limitations by integrating System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Events Sequence Identification (ETI) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The developed method results into the development of a detailed Fault Tree that captures the effects of both the physical components/subsystems and the software functions’ failures. The quantitative step of the method employs the components’ failure rates to calculate the top event failure rate along with criticality analysis metrics for identifying the most critical components/functions. This method is implemented for an exhaust gas open loop scrubber system safety analysis to estimate its failure rate and identify critical failures considering the baseline system configuration as well as various alternatives with advanced functions for monitoring and diagnostics. The results demonstrate that configurations with SOx sensor continuous monitoring or scrubber unit failure diagnosis/prognosis lead to significantly lower failure rate. Based on the analysis results, the advantages/disadvantages of the novel method are also discussed. This study also provides insights for better safety analysis of the CPSs

A gentle transition from Java programming to Web Services using XML-RPC

Exposing students to leading edge vocational areas of relevance such as Web Services can be difficult. We show a lightweight approach by embedding a key component of Web Services within a Level 3 BSc module in Distributed Computing. We present a ready to use collection of lecture slides and student activities based on XML-RPC. In addition we show that this material addresses the central topics in the context of web services as identified by Draganova (2003)

An early Little Ice Age brackish water invasion along the south coast of the Caspian Sea (sediment of Langarud wetland) and its wider impacts on environment and people

Caspian Sea level has undergone significant changes through time with major impacts not only on the surrounding coasts, but also offshore. This study reports a brackish water invasion on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea constructed from a multi-proxy analysis of sediment retrieved from the Langarud wetland. The ground surface level of wetland is >6 m higher than the current Caspian Sea level (at -27.41 m in 2014) and located >11 km far from the coast. A sequence covering the last millennium was dated by three radiocarbon dates. The results from this new study suggest that Caspian Sea level rose up to at least -21.44 m (i.e. >6 m above the present water level) during the early Little Ice Age. Although previous studies in the southern coast of the Caspian Sea have detected a high-stand during the Little Ice Age period, this study presents the first evidence that this high-stand reached so far inland and at such a high altitude. Moreover, it confirms one of the very few earlier estimates of a high-stand at -21 m for the second half of the 14th century. The effects of this large-scale brackish water invasion on soil properties would have caused severe disruption to regional agriculture, thereby destabilizing local dynasties and facilitating a rapid Turko-Mongol expansion of Tamerlane’s armies from the east.N Ghasemi (INIOAS), V Jahani (Gilan Province Cultural Heritage and Tourism Organisation) and A Naqinezhad (University of Mazandaran), INQUA QuickLakeH project (no. 1227) and to the European project Marie Curie, CLIMSEAS-PIRSES-GA-2009-24751

AI Solutions for MDS: Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Misuse Detection and Localisation in Telecommunication Environments

This report considers the application of Articial Intelligence (AI) techniques to the problem of misuse detection and misuse localisation within telecommunications environments. A broad survey of techniques is provided, that covers inter alia rule based systems, model-based systems, case based reasoning, pattern matching, clustering and feature extraction, articial neural networks, genetic algorithms, arti cial immune systems, agent based systems, data mining and a variety of hybrid approaches. The report then considers the central issue of event correlation, that is at the heart of many misuse detection and localisation systems. The notion of being able to infer misuse by the correlation of individual temporally distributed events within a multiple data stream environment is explored, and a range of techniques, covering model based approaches, `programmed' AI and machine learning paradigms. It is found that, in general, correlation is best achieved via rule based approaches, but that these suffer from a number of drawbacks, such as the difculty of developing and maintaining an appropriate knowledge base, and the lack of ability to generalise from known misuses to new unseen misuses. Two distinct approaches are evident. One attempts to encode knowledge of known misuses, typically within rules, and use this to screen events. This approach cannot generally detect misuses for which it has not been programmed, i.e. it is prone to issuing false negatives. The other attempts to `learn' the features of event patterns that constitute normal behaviour, and, by observing patterns that do not match expected behaviour, detect when a misuse has occurred. This approach is prone to issuing false positives, i.e. inferring misuse from innocent patterns of behaviour that the system was not trained to recognise. Contemporary approaches are seen to favour hybridisation, often combining detection or localisation mechanisms for both abnormal and normal behaviour, the former to capture known cases of misuse, the latter to capture unknown cases. In some systems, these mechanisms even work together to update each other to increase detection rates and lower false positive rates. It is concluded that hybridisation offers the most promising future direction, but that a rule or state based component is likely to remain, being the most natural approach to the correlation of complex events. The challenge, then, is to mitigate the weaknesses of canonical programmed systems such that learning, generalisation and adaptation are more readily facilitated

Application of Advanced Early Warning Systems with Adaptive Protection

This project developed and field-tested two methods of Adaptive Protection systems utilizing synchrophasor data. One method detects conditions of system stress that can lead to unintended relay operation, and initiates a supervisory signal to modify relay response in real time to avoid false trips. The second method detects the possibility of false trips of impedance relays as stable system swings “encroach” on the relays’ impedance zones, and produces an early warning so that relay engineers can re-evaluate relay settings. In addition, real-time synchrophasor data produced by this project was used to develop advanced visualization techniques for display of synchrophasor data to utility operators and engineers