Measuring and modelling Internet diffusion using second level domains: the case of Italy

The last 10 years witnessed an exponential growth of the Internet. According to Hobbes' Internet Timeline, the Internet hosts are about 93 million, while in 1989 they were 100,000. The same happens for second level domain names. In July 1989 the registered domains were about 3,900 while they were over 2 million in July 2000. This paper reports about the construction of a database containing daily observations on registrations of second level domain names underneath the it ccTLD in order to analyse the diffusion of Internet among families and businesses. The section of the database referring to domains registered by individuals is analysed. The penetration rate over the relevant population of potential adopters is computed at highly disaggregated geographical level (province). A concentration analysis is carried out to investigate whether the geographical distribution of Internet is less concentrated than population and income suggesting a diffusive effect. Regression analysis is carried out using demographic, social, economic and infrastructure indicators. Finally we briefly describe the further developments of our research. At the present we are constructing a database containing domains registered by firms together with data about the registrants; the idea is to use this new database and the previous one in order to check for the existence of power laws both in the number of domains registered in each province and in the number of domains registered by each firm.Domain names, Internet metrics, Diffusion, Power laws, Zipf s law

EXPLAINING THE TERRITORIAL ADOPTION OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES - A SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

The notion that Information and Communication Technology would have reduced the economic importance of geographic distance has been proposed with energy in the post-Internet literature (Cairncross, 2001). According to this view, the New Economy would work in a space rather than a place, cost of transport would be drastically reduced, distance would be less important, and peripheral regions would benefit from opportunities that were not available in the economy based on manufacturing industry (Negroponte, 1995; Cairncross, 1997; Kelly, 1998; Compaine, 2001). Since ICT are mostly based on immaterial and human capital investment, regions or areas that have historically suffered from isolation, large cost of transportation, or lack of physical private and public infrastructure might find new paths for growth. Consequently, according to this view, the concentration of income opportunities and wealth should decrease over time. Although other predictions were also present in the debate over the impact of the digital economy (e.g. Norris, 2001; UNDP; 2001), this view was largely dominant. The reality is not so rosy. Not only there are huge disparities in the intensity with which ICT are adopted and used across countries, but also there are still large differences within industrialized countries. Indeed, differences in economic development still shape the rate of the adoption of these technologies, at the firm, regional and country level. The reasons behind these stylized facts have been investigated at length in recent times. This paper contributes to the literature in several ways. First, it focuses on intra-national or regional differences, which is a much less explored dimension of the digital divide. Second, it uses a new metric for the adoption of ICT, namely the number of second level Internet domain names, registered under the ccTLD “.it.”. Finally, it explicitly combines the analysis of determinants with a spatial econometric approach. Thanks to the availability of panel data for both the dependent and the explanatory variables (time period: 1990-2001), spatial and temporal effect are simultaneously taken into account. Panel data techniques that account for temporal correlations are in widespread use while there have been a variety of studies accounting for spatial autocorrelation (see for instance Coughlin et al. 2003; Dubin, 1992; McMillan, 2004). However one of the major drawbacks to many analyses is that they fail to integrate the spatial and temporal correlations that are present in geographical systems (Elhorst, 2003).

Internet diffusion vs. The crisis of the new economy

The diffusion of Internet in the world, both in terms of ''users" and "information supplyiers" is continously and constantly increasing. This market growth is based on a development that follows the usual behaviour of technological innovation diffusion (S-shaped logistic curve), so it is allowed to obtain reliable forecasts about the future market trend. Nevertheless, dispite the continous growth of the "target", the E-business seems to be in a crucial situation absolutely unpredictable since few moths ago, when viceversa looked as the main driving force of the "new economy" attacking the boundaries of the "global market". The objective of this paper is to analyse the potentialities of the growing market, through the the actual and forecasted number of users, and the condition of the general offer, in terms of typology and quality of the services supplied, trying to identify a reason for this crisis.

The Local Emergence and Global Diffusion of Research Technologies: An Exploration of Patterns of Network Formation

Grasping the fruits of "emerging technologies" is an objective of many government priority programs in a knowledge-based and globalizing economy. We use the publication records (in the Science Citation Index) of two emerging technologies to study the mechanisms of diffusion in the case of two innovation trajectories: small interference RNA (siRNA) and nano-crystalline solar cells (NCSC). Methods for analyzing and visualizing geographical and cognitive diffusion are specified as indicators of different dynamics. Geographical diffusion is illustrated with overlays to Google Maps; cognitive diffusion is mapped using an overlay to a map based on the ISI Subject Categories. The evolving geographical networks show both preferential attachment and small-world characteristics. The strength of preferential attachment decreases over time, while the network evolves into an oligopolistic control structure with small-world characteristics. The transition from disciplinary-oriented ("mode-1") to transfer-oriented ("mode-2") research is suggested as the crucial difference in explaining the different rates of diffusion between siRNA and NCSC

The Effect of Content on Global Internet Adoption and the Global “Digital Divide”

A country’s human capital and economic productivity increasingly depend on the Internet due to its expanding role in providing information and communications. This has prompted a search for ways to increase Internet adoption and narrow its disparity across countries – the global “digital divide.” Previous work has focused on demographic, economic, and infrastructure determinants of Internet access difficult to change in the short run. Internet content increases adoption and can be changed more quickly; however, the magnitude of its impact and therefore its effectiveness as a policy and strategy tool is previously unknown. Quantifying content’s role is challenging because of feedback (network effects) between content and adoption: more content stimulates adoption which in turn increases the incentive to create content. We develop a methodology to overcome this endogeneity problem. We find a statistically and economically significant effect, implying that policies promoting content creation can substantially increase adoption. Because it is ubiquitous, Internet content is also useful to affect social change across countries. Content has a greater effect on adoption in countries with more disparate languages, making it a useful tool to overcome linguistic isolation. Our results offer guidance for policy makers on country characteristics that influence adoption’s responsiveness to content and for Internet firms on where to expand internationally and how to quantify content investments.Internet, technology adoption, economic development, two-sided markets, network effects, technology diffusion, language, content