ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

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A method of classification for multisource data in remote sensing based on interval-valued probabilities

An axiomatic approach to intervalued (IV) probabilities is presented, where the IV probability is defined by a pair of set-theoretic functions which satisfy some pre-specified axioms. On the basis of this approach representation of statistical evidence and combination of multiple bodies of evidence are emphasized. Although IV probabilities provide an innovative means for the representation and combination of evidential information, they make the decision process rather complicated. It entails more intelligent strategies for making decisions. The development of decision rules over IV probabilities is discussed from the viewpoint of statistical pattern recognition. The proposed method, so called evidential reasoning method, is applied to the ground-cover classification of a multisource data set consisting of Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and digital terrain data such as elevation, slope, and aspect. By treating the data sources separately, the method is able to capture both parametric and nonparametric information and to combine them. Then the method is applied to two separate cases of classifying multiband data obtained by a single sensor. In each case a set of multiple sources is obtained by dividing the dimensionally huge data into smaller and more manageable pieces based on the global statistical correlation information. By a divide-and-combine process, the method is able to utilize more features than the conventional maximum likelihood method

A Manifesto for the Equifinality Thesis.

This essay discusses some of the issues involved in the identification and predictions of hydrological models given some calibration data. The reasons for the incompleteness of traditional calibration methods are discussed. The argument is made that the potential for multiple acceptable models as representations of hydrological and other environmental systems (the equifinality thesis) should be given more serious consideration than hitherto. It proposes some techniques for an extended GLUE methodology to make it more rigorous and outlines some of the research issues still to be resolved

Techniques for clustering gene expression data

Many clustering techniques have been proposed for the analysis of gene expression data obtained from microarray experiments. However, choice of suitable method(s) for a given experimental dataset is not straightforward. Common approaches do not translate well and fail to take account of the data profile. This review paper surveys state of the art applications which recognises these limitations and implements procedures to overcome them. It provides a framework for the evaluation of clustering in gene expression analyses. The nature of microarray data is discussed briefly. Selected examples are presented for the clustering methods considered

A mathematical theory of evidence for G.L.S. Shackle

Evidence Theory is a branch of mathematics that concerns the combination of empirical evidence in an individual's mind in order to construct a coherent picture of reality. Designed to deal with unexpected empirical evidence suggesting new possibilities, evidence theory has a lot in common with Shackle's idea of decision-making as a creative act. This essay investigates this connection in detail, pointing to the usefulness of evidence theory to formalise and extend Shackle's decision theory. In order to ease a proper framing of the issues involved, evidence theory is not only compared with Shackle's ideas but also with additive and sub-additive probability theories. Furthermore, the presentation of evidence theory does not refer to the original version only, but takes account of its most recent developments, too.

Dynamic capital allocation with distortion risk measures

Tsanakas and Barnett [Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 33 (2003) 239] employed concepts from cooperative game theory [Aumann and Shapley, Values of Non-Atomic Games. Princeton University Press, Princeton] for the allocation of risk capital to portfolios of pooled liabilities, when distortion risk measures [Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 21 (2) (1997) 173] are used. In this paper we generalise previously obtained results in three directions. Firstly, we allow for the presence of non-linear portfolios. Secondly, based on the concept of correlation order [ASTIN Bulletin 26 (2) (1996) 201] we proceed with discussing the links between dependence structures, capital allocation and pricing, as well as dropping a restrictive assumption on the continuity of probability distributions. Finally, we generalise the capital allocation methodology to a dynamic setting and conclude with a numerical example

A Potts Neuron Approach to Communication Routing

A feedback neural network approach to communication routing problems is developed with emphasis on Multiple Shortest Path problems, with several requests for transmissions between distinct start- and endnodes. The basic ingredients are a set of Potts neurons for each request, with interactions designed to minimize path lengths and to prevent overloading of network arcs. The topological nature of the problem is conveniently handled using a propagator matrix approach. Although the constraints are global, the algorithmic steps are based entirely on local information, facilitating distributed implementations. In the polynomially solvable single-request case the approach reduces to a fuzzy version of the Bellman-Ford algorithm. The approach is evaluated for synthetic problems of varying sizes and load levels, by comparing with exact solutions from a branch-and-bound method. With very few exceptions, the Potts approach gives legal solutions of very high quality. The computational demand scales merely as the product of the numbers of requests, nodes, and arcs.Comment: 10 pages LaTe