Reasoning with linguistic preferences using NPN logic

Negative-positive-neutral logic provides an alternative framework for fuzzy cognitive maps development and decision analysis. This paper reviews basic notion of NPN logic and NPN relations and proposes adaptive approach to causality weights assessment. It employs linguistic models of causality weights activated by measurement-based fuzzy cognitive maps' concepts values. These models allow for quasi-dynamical adaptation to the change of concepts values, providing deeper understanding of possible side effects. Since in the real-world environments almost every decision has its consequences, presenting very valuable portion of information upon which we also make our decisions, the knowledge about the side effects enables more reliable decision analysis and directs actions of decision maker

Facing Openness with Socio Cognitive Trust and Categories

Typical solutions for agents assessing trust relies on the circulation of information on the individual level, i.e. reputational images, subjective experiences, statistical analysis, etc. This work presents an alternative approach, inspired to the cognitive heuristics enabling humans to reason at a categorial level. The approach is envisaged as a crucial ability for agents in order to: (1) estimate trustworthiness of unknown trustees based on an ascribed membership to categories; (2) learn a series of emergent relations between trustees observable properties and their effective abilities to fulfill tasks in situated conditions. On such a basis, categorization is provided to recognize signs (Manifesta) through which hidden capabilities (Kripta) can be inferred. Learning is provided to refine reasoning attitudes needed to ascribe tasks to categories. A series of architectures combining categorization abilities, individual experiences and context awareness are evaluated and compared in simulated experiments

From Manifesta to Krypta: The Relevance of Categories for Trusting Others

In this paper we consider the special abilities needed by agents for assessing trust based on inference and reasoning. We analyze the case in which it is possible to infer trust towards unknown counterparts by reasoning on abstract classes or categories of agents shaped in a concrete application domain. We present a scenario of interacting agents providing a computational model implementing different strategies to assess trust. Assuming a medical domain, categories, including both competencies and dispositions of possible trustees, are exploited to infer trust towards possibly unknown counterparts. The proposed approach for the cognitive assessment of trust relies on agents' abilities to analyze heterogeneous information sources along different dimensions. Trust is inferred based on specific observable properties (Manifesta), namely explicitly readable signals indicating internal features (Krypta) regulating agents' behavior and effectiveness on specific tasks. Simulative experiments evaluate the performance of trusting agents adopting different strategies to delegate tasks to possibly unknown trustees, while experimental results show the relevance of this kind of cognitive ability in the case of open Multi Agent Systems

Prediction of stroke probability occurrence based on fuzzy cognitive maps

Among neurological patients, stroke is the most common cause of mortality. It is a health problem that is very costly all over the world. Therefore, the mortality due to the disease can be reduced by identifying and modifying the risk factors. Controllable factors which are contributing to stroke including hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, hyperlipidemia, smoking, and obesity. Therefore, by identifying and controlling the risk factors, stroke can be prevented and the effects of this disease could be reduced to a minimum. Therefore, for the quick and timely diagnosis of the disease, we need an intelligent system to predict the stroke risk. In this paper, a method has been proposed for predicting the risk rate of stroke which is based on fuzzy cognitive maps and nonlinear Hebbian learning algorithm. The accuracy of the proposed NHL-FCM model is tested using 15-fold cross-validation, for 90 actual cases, and compared with those of support vector machine and k-nearest neighbours. The proposed method shows superior performance with a total accuracy of (95.4 ± 7.5)%

FCMpy: A Python Module for Constructing and Analyzing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

FCMpy is an open source package in Python for building and analyzing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. More specifically, the package allows 1) deriving fuzzy causal weights from qualitative data, 2) simulating the system behavior, 3) applying machine learning algorithms (e.g., Nonlinear Hebbian Learning, Active Hebbian Learning, Genetic Algorithms and Deterministic Learning) to adjust the FCM causal weight matrix and to solve classification problems, and 4) implementing scenario analysis by simulating hypothetical interventions (i.e., analyzing what-if scenarios).Comment: 22 pages, 9 Figure

Learning FCMs with multi-local and balanced memetic algorithms for forecasting industrial drying processes

In this paper, we propose a Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) learning approach with a multi-local search in balanced memetic algorithms for forecasting industrial drying processes. The first contribution of this paper is to propose a FCM model by an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA), but the resulted FCM model is improved by a multi-local and balanced local search algorithm. Memetic algorithms can be tuned with different local search strategies (CMA-ES, SW, SSW and Simplex) and the balance of the effort between global and local search. To do this, we applied the proposed approach to the forecasting of moisture loss in industrial drying process. The thermal drying process is a relevant one used in many industrial processes such as food industry, biofuels production, detergents and dyes in powder production, pharmaceutical industry, reprography applications, textile industries, and others. This research also shows that exploration of the search space is more relevant than finding local optima in the FCM models tested