Application of spatial regression to investigate current patterns of crime in the north of Portugal

Costa, J. D., & Costa, A. C. (2017). Application of spatial regression to investigate current patterns of crime in the north of Portugal. Poster session presented at AGILE 2017, Wageningen, Netherlands.Crime is one of the main problems of societies. However, research on this phenomenon has not yet reached a consensus on what factors influence the variability of crime rates and how it positions itself and acts in space. This work aims to contribute to a greater understanding of crime in the north of Portugal by investigating demographic and socioeconomic factors that may be associated with it. We explore the use of spatial statistics techniques through a detailed exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) first, and the application of regression models (Ordinary Least Squares and GWR – Geographically Weighted Regression) afterwards. The results show a crime hotspot on the coastline, and spatial homogeneity of low values between central-south municipalities. Crime patterns might be explained by population density, distance to the district capital and beneficiaries of Social Integration Income, who are individuals without socioeconomic conditions that need financial assistance from the Portuguese Government. However, predictions based on a GWR model with these factors may not be appropriate, given the limitations of this technique.publishersversionpublishersversionpublishe

Final Internship Report: GIS Research and Analysis at the Center for Homicide Research

This final internship report is being submitted as an Alternate Plan Paper as partial fulfillment for the Degree of Master of Science in Geography at Minnesota State University, Mankato. The internship took place at the Center for Homicide Research (CHR) in Minneapolis, Minnesota from January through June of 2018. This paper is organized into seven chapters. This chapter, Chapter 1, is the introduction to the internship. Chapter 2 examines the scope of the internship. It includes a background of CHR, the duties of a GIS Intern, and discusses the benefits of the internship. Chapter 3 details presentations that were made during the internship. Chapter 4 is a literature review of the history of crime mapping, and tools for crime mapping and crime analysis. Chapter 5 is a GIS based case study. My research on homicides lead to the development of a case study: Homicides in Minneapolis from 2012 through 2016. Much of the research was conducted online, but other records were obtained from physical sources, such as the Minnesota History Center. To present the findings, the open source GIS program QGIS was used, since it is the program CHR utilizes. The paper concludes with an evaluation of the significance of the internship

Modelo de simulación espacial del desplazamiento del hurto a personas en la ciudad de Bogotá frente a una intervención policial focalizada en hot spots

En Bogotá la actividad delictiva, especialmente el hurto a personas se ha establecido como uno de los problemas con mayor atención por parte de las diferentes administraciones debido a su impacto social, económico y político. Por esta razón, la presente tesis propone un modelo de predicción del desplazamiento espacial del delito por medio de diferentes métodos y aplicando herramientas disponibles en los Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG), la metodología Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) y elementos de lógica difusa con el objetivo principal de identificar las concentraciones de hurto a personas a partir de las variables del entorno como son: actividades comerciales o uso del suelo, variables asociadas a la movilidad de la gente y otras actividades delictivas, las cuales inciden en el comportamiento espacial del delito y a partir de estas predecir su desplazamiento geográfico al momento de definir una intervención policial en un punto especifico. Para esto, se utilizaron las herramientas SIG relacionadas con georreferenciación, análisis de proximidad, superposición de capas y análisis de densidad tipo Kernel para la preparación, procesamiento y análisis de los datos delictivos del sistema de información delictivo, contravencional y operativo de la Policía Nacional – SIEDCO. Además, se usaron datos de variables del entorno como bares, bancos, colegios, universidades, malla vial, vías principales y estaciones de transporte masivo. Como resultado de este trabajo se obtienen tres productos: el primero, es una caracterización de las relaciones espaciales entre el hurto a personas y las variables del entorno ya mencionadas. El segundo, es un modelo de estimación espacial a través de la metodología RTM que permite identificar en dónde se concentra la actividad delictiva (hot spots o puntos críticos) teniendo en cuenta las variables del entorno. El tercer producto se genera a través de los resultados del producto anterior, es un modelo de lógica difusa que permite predecir el desplazamiento espacial del hurto a personas en el momento que se planea o diseña una intervención de tipo policial en un sitio específico. La simulación se realiza con el fin de identificar las zonas con mayor riesgo de desplazamiento del delito para poder diseñar actividades de prevención o de mitigación en las antes de que se presente, lo que permitirá maximizar los resultados de la intervención y disminuir los efectos colaterales de la misma.In Bogota, the crime, especially robbery, has established itself as one of the problems with greatest attention in the different administrations due to its social, economic and political impact. For this reason, the present thesis proposes a predicting model for the spatial displacement of crime through different tools of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) methodology and fuzzy logic elements with the main objective of identifying the density of robbery from the environmental variables such as: other criminal activities, commercial activities or land use and variables associated with the mobility of people, which affect the crime spatial behaviour, thereby predict their spatial displacement when defining a police intervention at a specific point. For this, GIS tools related to georeferencing, proximity analysis, layer overlay and Kernel density analysis were used for the preparation, processing and analysis of criminal data of the National Police's information system – SIEDCO, Additionally, data on environmental variables such as bars, banks, schools, universities, road network, main roads and mass transit stations were used. As a result of this work, three products are obtained: The first is a characterization of the spatial relationships between robbery and the environmental variables already mentioned. The second is a spatial estimation model through the RTM methodology that allows to identify where the criminal activity is concentrated (hot spots) taking into account the environment variables. The third product, generated through the results of the previous product, is a fuzzy logic model that allows predicting the spatial displacement of robbery at the time a police intervention is planned or designed at a specific site, The simulation is carried out in order to identify the areas with the highest risk of displacement of crime to be able to design prevention or mitigation activities in those before it is presented, which will maximize the results of the intervention and reduce its collateral effects.Maestrí

Klasterisasi dan visualisasi geografi tentang kriminalitas konvensional dengan metode algoritma K-means menggunakan R di Provinsi Jawa Timur : studi kasus di Polda Jatim

Kriminalitas adalah tindakan melanggar hukum yang membuat rakyat gelisah dan menjadi isu tren pada saat ini. Kerugian yang ditimbulkan akibat kriminalitas tidak hanya materi dan sosial tetapi menurunkan rasa nyaman masyarakat, menurunkan produktivitas bahkan dapat membuat hilangnya nyawa seseorang. Untuk itu diperlukan sebuah rancangan strategi &kebijakan yang tepat sasaran oleh para penegak hukum untuk menekan tingkat kriminalitas. Supaya mudah dalam menganalisis dan menginterpretasikan sebuah data informasi kriminalitas menjadi sebuah acuan kebijakan maka diperlukan penggalian data teknik clustering untuk menganalisis kelompok berdasar data kejahatan menggunakan algoritma K-means. Analisis polanya berdasar faktor – faktor yang mempengaruhi resiko tingkat kriminalitas yang ada hubungannya seperti pola pelaku, umur pelaku, pola korban, pola sasaran dan tempat kejadian.Sedangkan dalam upaya penyajian informasi yang dapat menunjukkan analisis yang telah dilakukan maka dibutuhkan visualisasi geografis untuk melihat informasi per daerah dan kota. Dalam tugas akhir ini, data yang dipakai adalah data kriminal Jawa Timur tahun 2012 – 2014 dari Reskrimum Polda Jatim. Hasil dari tugas akhir ini adalah analisis klaster menggunakan algoritma K-means & visualisasi geografis setiap daerah & kota di Jawa Timur. Dari tugas akhir ini tentunya dapat memberikan informasi yang bermanfaat umumnya buat masyarakat dan khususnya buat Polda Jatim dalam memberikan referensi tentang analisis data untuk membuat rancangan strategi, kebijakan tepat sasaran dan keputusan penanganan masalah kriminalitas kedepan. Hasil dari tugas akhir ini berupa klasterisasi 3 kategori ini adalah kategori kasus kriminal terdapat 7 klaster, kategori pelaku terdapat 6 klaster dan kategori korban terdapat 3 klaster. Analisa tindakan disesuaikan terhadap karakteristik klaster masing-masing kategori dan divisualisasikan. ============================================================================================================ Crime is an act against the law that is deemed to the people, public welfare and morals and creates violation and punishable by law. Losses incurred due to crime is not only the material and social but also harmful to the comfort of society, lowering productivity and even make the loss of someone's life. Undoubtedly, it required a strategy and policies targeted by law enforcement to reduce the level of crime. In this study, we would like to use criminal data provided by police department in province level (East Java) in 2012 - 2014. So easy to analyze and interpret a criminal information data into a reference policy is needed extracting data clustering techniques to analyze the data based crime groups using the K-means algorithm. Pattern analysis based on factors - factors that affect the risk level of criminality that are related as actors pattern, age of the actor, the victim pattern, the pattern of the target and the scene. The crime data is processed into the visualization to find information about fourteen types of specific crimes defined by the police department of Indonesia (Kepolisian Republik Indonesia or POLRI). The results of this research is the clustering analysis using the Kmeans algorithm and visualization of geographic every county and city in East Java. The result is a map visualization, where the type used is choropleth maps created using application R. This map will display information about a crime that can be easily accessed by the public, so that it will raise public awareness about the criminal acts that occurred in specific region, especially in the area of East Java. The result of final project in the form of clustering third category are the criminal case category there are 7 clusters, categories of perpetrators are 6 clusters and categories of victims there are 3 clusters. Analysis of measures adapted to the characteristics of the cluster each category and visualized

Modelação e Análise Espacial das Condicionantes do Crime Contra o Património em Portugal Continental

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Information Analysis and ManagementA criminalidade é um dos fenómenos sociais mais problemáticos que tem vindo a ganhar relevo e especial importância desde o final do século XX. É um fenómeno dinâmico e distribuído segundo tendências espaciais. Este tema tem sido objeto de estudo em diversas áreas científicas, ao longo do tempo, com o intuito de identificar novas leituras de informação, que possibilitem compreender os fatores associados à criminalidade, e encontrar soluções para prevenir e combater este problema. O evento criminal, tal como outros, desenvolve-se em torno do território, tendo por isso um cariz geográfico. Assim, a gestão e análise da criminalidade com recurso a ferramentas de informação geográfica têm representado uma importante contribuição para a análise da criminalidade. Esta investigação explora a distribuição espacial dos crimes contra o património em Portugal Continental e tem como objetivo principal investigar fatores demográficos e socioeconómicos, que possam estar associados a este fenómeno em cada município. Para tal, são aplicadas ferramentas de Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG), técnicas de análise exploratória, estatística descritiva e modelação espacial. A análise exploratória inicial permitiu identificar a existência de autocorrelação e heterogeneidade espacial na taxa de crimes contra o património, justificando assim a utilização de modelos de regressão espacial. Foram aplicados e comparados entre si, modelos de regressão de Poisson, nomeadamente o modelo global, o modelo local GWPR – Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (Regressão de Poisson Geograficamente Ponderada) –, e o modelo GWPR semi-paramétrico. O modelo que revelou um melhor ajuste aos dados foi o GWPR com oito variáveis explicativas: Poder de compra per capita; Taxa de população jovem residente; Taxa de retenção e desistência no ensino básico; Taxa bruta de escolarização; Número médio de alojamentos de familiares clássicos; Taxa de benificiários do RMG e RSI; Taxa de desempregados; Proporção de população estrangeira. Em particular, o modelo apresenta melhor ajuste nos municípios da área metropolitana de Lisboa e do Porto. Os resultados mostram que a magnitude da associação de cada uma das variáveis independentes com os crimes contra o património varia no território. Com este estudo, espera-se contribuir para uma melhor compreensão do fenómeno da criminalidade em Portugal, na medida em que os resultados permitem identificar quais são os fatores demográficos e socioeconómicos mais relevantes em cada município.Criminality is one of the most problematic social phenomena that has been gaining special relevance since the late twentieth century. It is a dynamical phenomenon distributed according to spatial trends. Over the course of time, several research fields have focused on the study of this subject, in order to unravel innovative ways of examining the information, making it possible to better understand the factors associated with crime, and find solutions to prevent and address this issue. The subject of criminality, like many others, is strongly related with territorial distribution and therefore, it may be well characterized by a geographical assessment. Thus, crime monitoring through geographic information analysis tools stands as an important contribution to the study of crime. This study explores the spatial distribution of crime against property in mainland Portugal, with the primary goal of investigating which demographic and socioeconomic factors may be associated with this problem in each municipality. For this purpose, Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, exploratory analysis techniques, descriptive statistics, and spatial modelling have been applied. An initial exploratory analysis identified the existence of autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity in the rate of crimes against property, thus supporting the use of spatial regression models. Hence, Poisson regression models were applied and compared, namely the global model, the local GWPR model – Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression –, and the semi-parametric GWPR model. The model that revealed a better fit to the data was the GWPR model, with eight explanatory variables: Purchasing power per capita; Rate of young resident population; Retention and dropout rates in basic education; Gross school enrollment rate; Average number of households in a classical family; Rate of RMG and RSI beneficiaries; Unemployment rate; Ratio of foreign population. The model presents a better fit in the municipalities on the metropolitan areas of Lisbon and Porto. The results show that the correlation degree between each of the independent variables and the crimes against property varies across the territory. The aim of this investigation is to potentially improve the understanding of the crime problem in mainland Portugal, given that the results allow to identify the most relevant demographic and socioeconomic factors in each municipality

Ownership and Poaching of Rhinos on Private Land in South Africa

South Africa contains almost 75% of Africa’s rhino population, and around one-third of these rhinos are held on private land. This thesis focuses on the conservation contribution and challenges faced by private rhino owners. The work utilises historical surveys, a questionnaire of rhino owners and managers, and stakeholder interviews to assess the conservation value of private ownership of rhinos. Mainstream and social media reports of poaching events were combined with landowner reports to provide a database of poaching incidences. The questionnaires also provided information regarding the use and effectiveness of anti-poaching strategies employed by private rhino owners. Results indicate that private landowners have contributed significantly to the increase in numbers of rhinos in South Africa. Private rhino owners perceive that they make a valuable contribution to conservation, but this view is not always shared by wider stakeholders. Many challenges were identified by private owners, notably the continuing increase in security expenditure due to poaching. A wide range of anti-poaching strategies is employed by private rhino owners, with varying levels of success. Rhinos were more likely to be poached at night, under the light of a full moon, but there was no evidence of selective poaching with respect to species, sex or age. Private land located near to large urban areas, international airports and state or provincial parks holding rhinos was found to be most at risk of poaching, but the strength of these associations varied across the country. Rhinos were also found to be more at risk in areas of high unemployment and low engagement in formal education with Kwa-Zulu-Natal. There were no other associations found with any socio-economic factors. It is imperative that more detailed information relating to poaching of rhinos is recorded and released by the South African Government to assist with rhino conservation. Strategic deployment of anti-poaching strategies in areas known to be poaching hotspots may serve to reduce the impact of rhino poaching across the country, as may increased collaboration of private rhino owners with other stakeholders

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Crime Incidents for Forensic Investigation

Crime analysis and mapping has been routinely employed to gather intelligence which informs security efforts and forensic investigations. Traditionally, geographic information systems in the form of third-party mapping applications are used for analysis of crime data but are often expensive and lack flexibility, transparency, or efficiency in uncovering associations and relationships in crime. Each crime incident and article of evidence within that incident has an associated spatial and temporal component which may yield significant and relevant information to the case. Wide variations exist in the techniques that departments use and commonly spatial and temporal components of crime are evaluated independently, if at all. Thus, there is a critical need to develop and implement spatio-temporal investigative strategies so police agencies can gain a foundational understanding of crime occurrence within their jurisdiction, develop strategic action for disruption and resolution of crime, conduct more informed investigations, better utilize resources, and provide an overall more effective service. The purpose of this project was to provide foundational knowledge to the investigative and security communities and demonstrate the utility of empirical spatio-temporal methods for the assessment and interpretation of crime incidents. Two software packages were developed as an open source (R) solution to expand current techniques and provide an implementable spatio-temporal methodology for crime analysis. Additionally, an actionable method for near repeat analysis was developed. Firstly, the premise of the near repeat phenomenon was evaluated across crime types and cities to discern optimal parameters for spatial and temporal bandwidths. Using these parameters, a method for identifying near repeat series was developed which draws inter-incident linkages given the spatio-temporal clustering of the incidents. Resultant crime networks and maps provide insight regarding near repeat crime incidents within the landscape of their jurisdiction for targeted investigation. Finally, a new approach to the geographic profiling problem was developed which assesses and integrates the travel environment of road networks, beliefs and assumptions formed through the course of the investigation process about the perpetrator, and information derived from the analysis of evidence. Each piece of information is evaluated in conjunction with spatio-temporal routing functions and then used to update prior beliefs about the anchor point of the perpetrator. Adopting spatio-temporal methodologies for the investigation of crime offers a new framework for forensic operations in the investigation of crime. Systematic consideration about the value and implications of the relationship between space, time, and crime was shown to provide insight regarding crime. In a forward-looking sense this work shows that the interpretation of crime within a spatio-temporal context can provide insight into crime occurrence, linkage of crime incidents, and investigations of those incidents

Bericht an das Bundesministerium für Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend

Das Projekt „Sicherheitspotenziale im höheren Lebensalter“ wurde in den Jahren 2012 bis 2014 mit Förderung durch das Bundesministerium für Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend durchgeführt. Das in zwei Module gegliederte Projekt widmete sich, wie der Untertitel besagt, der „Förderung sicher-heitsbezogenen Handelns im Alter“ sowie der „Prävention betrügerischer Vermögensdelikte an älte-ren Menschen“. In beiden Bereichen wurden Daten zu den jeweils im Mittelpunkt stehenden Phänomenbereichen erhoben, präventive Ansätze entwickelt und in der Praxis erprobt. Im ersten der beiden Module stand die Selbstsorge älterer Menschen um ihre Sicherheit im Zentrum der Aufmerksamkeit. Das Modul ging – vor dem Hintergrund kriminalstatistischer Daten wie auch von Ergebnissen der Dunkelfeldforschung – davon aus, dass ältere Menschen Expertinnen und Exper-ten in Fragen der eigenen Sicherheit sind und dass zugleich die diesbezüglichen Potenziale optimiert werden können. Ziel war es hier, alltägliches sicherheitsorientiertes Handeln älterer Menschen zu analysieren und durch ein Trainingsprogramm in einer Weise zu optimieren, die ein hohes Maß an Sicherheit vor Straftaten mit hoher Lebensqualität und aktiver Teilnahme am sozialen Leben vereinbar macht. In vier nach dem Grad der Urbanität und nach sozialstrukturellen Merkmalen differenzierten Sozial-räumen wurden – mittels Interviews und Gruppendiskussionen – subjektive Sicherheit, Kriminalitäts-erfahrungen und alltägliche Sicherheitsstrategien älterer Menschen untersucht. Bei einem insgesamt hohen Maß erlebter Sicherheit im eigenen Wohnumfeld zeigte sich, dass erlebte Bedrohungen teils mit Kriminalität im engeren Sinne (insbesondere Eigentums- und Vermögensdelikte), teils mit als verunsichernd erlebten alltäglichen Verhaltensweisen, insbesondere kollektivem Verhalten Jugendli-cher im öffentlichen Raum verknüpft sind. Es wurde ein Trainingsprogramm entwickelt und in den vier Sozialräumen angeboten und umgesetzt, welches derartige Verunsicherungen aufgreift. Im Rahmen des Trainingsprogramms standen der Schutz vor Eigentums- und Vermögensdelikten, der sichere Umgang mit moderner Technik, Selbstbehauptung in alltäglichen Interaktionen sowie die Begegnung und der Erfahrungsaustausch mit Gruppen von Jugendlichen im Vordergrund. Das Trai-ningsprogramm wurde von den Teilnehmenden sehr positiv bewertet. Zugleich erwies sich die Ge-winnung von Teilnehmerinnen und Teilnehmern zum Teil als aufwändig und die Zusammensetzung der Gruppen weist auf eine gewisse Selektivität in Richtung bürgerlicher Milieus mit hohem Bil-dungshintergrund hin. Daraus erwachsen Fragen hinsichtlich der Verbreitung der Nachfrage nach derartigen Trainings und der Erreichbarkeit weniger bildungsaffiner gesellschaftlicher Gruppen. Das zweite Modul rückte die besondere Gefährdung älterer Menschen durch Eigentums- und Vermö-gensdelikte und unseriöse Geschäftspraktiken in den Vordergrund. Während Ältere insgesamt selte-ner von Straftaten betroffen sind als jüngere Erwachsene (oder gar Jugendliche), zeigt sich in weni gen Deliktsfeldern ein hiervon abweichendes Bild. Dies gilt besonders für manche Eigentums- und Vermögensdelikte, die – in der Regel unter Zuhilfenahme von Täuschungen – an älteren Menschen begangen werden. Im Rahmen der Studie wurden unter Zuhilfenahme von Täuschungen begangene Eigentums- und Vermögensdelikte an älteren Menschen auf der Basis polizeilicher Daten, staatsan-waltschaftlicher Akten sowie von Interviews mit zahlreichen relevanten Akteuren (Geschädigte, Täterinnen/Täter, Polizei und Justiz, Verbraucherschutz, Kreditinstitute, Opferschutz, Betreuungswe-sen etc.) untersucht. Im Ergebnis wird deutlich, dass es auf der einen Seite in hohem Maße organi-sierte Formen von Kriminalität gibt, bei denen die Täter nach festen Skripts vorgehen und gezielt Vulnerabilitäten älterer und hochaltriger Menschen ausnutzen (Enkeltrickbetrug, Trickdiebstähle und weitere Formen). Auf der anderen Seite hat die Studie vielfältige Formen von Vermögensdelikten aufgezeigt, die aus bestehenden, im Einzelfall auch gezielt aufgebauten Beziehungen privater oder professioneller Art heraus begangen werden. Dazu gehören Diebstähle und Unterschlagungen eben-so wie der missbräuchliche Umgang mit Vollmachten und anderen Vermögensverfügungen. Im Rah-men der Studie wurde zudem deutlich, dass rechtliche Betreuungsverhältnisse einerseits vor Vermö-gensdelikten schützen und zur Aufdeckung begangener Taten beitragen können, dass sie aber zugleich Tatgelegenheiten bieten, die von entsprechend motivierten (professionellen wie ehrenamt-lichen) Betreuerinnen und Betreuern genutzt werden können. Darüber hinaus zeigt die Studie, dass hochaltrige Menschen in hohem Maße auch Ziel von Geschäftspraktiken sind, die sich vielfach im Grenzbereich zwischen defizitärer Seriosität und strafbarem Unrecht bewegen. Um den Schutz älterer Menschen insbesondere vor betrügerischen Taten zu verbessern, wurde vor dem Hintergrund der Analysen des Deliktsfeldes ein Schulungsprogramm für Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeiter von Kreditinstituten entwickelt und umgesetzt. Diese wurden über einschlägige Phäno-mene informiert und – unter Einbindung leitender Mitarbeiterinnen/Mitarbeiter der jeweiligen Insti-tute – im Hinblick auf den Umgang mit Verdachtssituationen geschult. Banken und Sparkassen kön-nen längst nicht bei allen Vermögensdelikten zum Nachteil Älterer eine präventive Funktion übernehmen, doch zeigen sich diesbezügliche Kapazitäten insbesondere bei Taten, bei denen – wie beim Enkeltrick – große Geldbeträge vom Opfer in der Filiale abgehoben werden oder bei denen auffällige Kontobewegungen Hinweise auf Fälle finanzieller Ausbeutung geben können. Das Schu-lungsprogramm wurde von den Teilnehmenden insgesamt in hohem Maße positiv bewertet. Insgesamt verdeutlicht das Projekt die differenzierte Sicherheitslage im Alter, die vor allem im soge-nannten dritten Lebensalter durch ein insgesamt hohes Maß an messbarer und subjektiv erlebter Sicherheit gekennzeichnet ist und zugleich – dies vor allem in Bezug auf hochaltrige Menschen im „vierten Lebensalter“ – jedenfalls im Bereich der Vermögensdelikte etablierte, organisiert begangene Tatmuster und vielfältige, oft auch aufgrund der Nähe von Täterinnen/Tätern und Opfer im Verbor-genen bleibende Tatgelegenheiten und Taten aufweist. Für die Prävention in Bezug auf Gefährdun-gen Älterer ergibt sich das Erfordernis einer jeweils auf spezifische Kriminalitätsbereiche ausgerichteten Entwicklung von Maßnahmen. Diese sollten über die unmittelbare Ansprache älterer Menschen hinaus stets auch die Frage der Sinnhaftigkeit einer Einbindung von Dritten prüfen, die als „Guardi-ans“ zum Schutz insbesondere hochaltriger und durch die Einschränkungen des „vierten Lebensal-ters“ gekennzeichneter Menschen beitragen können