Using mobility information to perform a feasibility study and the evaluation of spatio-temporal energy demanded by an electric taxi fleet

Half of the global population already lives in urban areas, facing to the problem of air pollution mainly caused by the transportation system. The recently worsening of urban air quality has a direct impact on the human health. Replacing today’s internal combustion engine vehicles with electric ones in public fleets could provide a deep impact on the air quality in the cities. In this paper, real mobility information is used as decision support for the taxi fleet manager to promote the adoption of electric taxi cabs in the city of San Francisco, USA. Firstly, mobility characteristics and energy requirements of a single taxi are analyzed. Then, the results are generalized to all vehicles from the taxi fleet. An electrificability rate of the taxi fleet is generated, providing information about the number of current trips that could be performed by electric taxis without modifying the current driver mobility patterns. The analysis results reveal that 75.2% of the current taxis could be replaced by electric vehicles, considering a current standard battery capacity (24–30 kWh). This value can increase significantly (to 100%), taking into account the evolution of the price and capacity of the batteries installed in the last models of electric vehicles that are coming to the market. The economic analysis shows that the purchasing costs of an electric taxi are bigger than conventional one. However, fuel, maintenance and repair costs are much lower. Using the expected energy consumption information evaluated in this study, the total spatio-temporal demand of electric energy required to recharge the electric fleet is also calculated, allowing identifying optimal location of charging infrastructure based on realistic routing patterns. This information could also be used by the distribution system operator to identify possible reinforcement actions in the electric grid in order to promote introducing electric vehicles

Data-driven analyses of future electric personal mobility

Personal mobility is moving towards the era of electrification. Adopting electric vehicles (EV) is widely regarded as an effective solution to energy crisis and air pollution. Many automakers have announced their roadmap to electrification in the next 1-2 decades. At the same time, limited electric range and insufficient charging infrastructure are still obstacles to EV large-scale adoption. However, with the emerging technologies of ride-hailing, connected vehicles, and autonomous vehicles, these obstacles are being solved effectively, and the EV market penetration is expected to increase significantly. Among the many kinds of electric mobility, electric taxis and personal battery electric vehicles (BEV) especially are gaining increasing popularity and acceptance among customers. This dissertation studies the future challenges of electric taxis and personal BEVs. First, this dissertation examines the BEV feasibility from the spatial-temporal travel patterns of taxis. The BEV feasibility of a taxi is quantified as the percentage of occupied trips that can be completed by BEVs during a year. It is found that taxis with certain characteristics are more suitable for switching to BEVs, such as fewer daily shifts, shorter daily driving distance, and higher likelihood to dwell at the borough of Manhattan. Second, we model and simulate the operations of electric autonomous vehicle (EAV) taxis. EAV taxis are dispatched by the optimization-based model and the neural network-based model. The neural network dispatch model is able to learn the optimal dispatch strategies and runs much faster. The EAV taxis dispatched by the neural network-based model can improve operational efficiency in term of less empty travel distance and smaller fleet size. Third, this dissertation proposes a cumulative prospect theory (CPT) based modeling framework to describe charging behavior of BEV drivers. A BEV mass-market scenario is constructed using 2017 National Household Travel Survey data. By applying the CPT-based charging behavior model, we examine the battery state-of-charge when drivers decide to charge their vehicles, charging timing and locations, and charging power demand profiles under the mass-market scenario. In addition, sensitivity analyses with respect to drivers’ risk attitude and public charger network coverage are conducted

Big Data for Urban Sustainability: Integrating Personal Mobility Dynamics in Environmental Assessments.

To alleviate fossil fuel use, reduce air emissions, and mitigate climate change, “new mobility” systems start to emerge with technologies such as electric vehicles, multi-modal transportation enabled by information and communications technology, and car/ride sharing. Current literature on the environmental implications of these emerging systems is often limited by using aggregated travel pattern data to characterize personal mobility dynamics, neglecting the individual heterogeneity. Individual travel patterns affect several key factors that determine potential environmental impacts, including charging behaviors, connection needs between different transportation modes, and car/ride sharing potentials. Therefore, to better understand these systems and inform decision making, travel patterns at the individual level need to be considered. Using vehicle trajectory data of over 10,000 taxis in Beijing, this research demonstrates the benefits of integrating individual travel patterns into environmental assessments through three case studies (vehicle electrification, charging station siting, and ride sharing) focusing on two emerging systems: electric vehicles and ride sharing. Results from the vehicle electrification study indicate that individual travel patterns can impact the environmental performance of fleet electrification. When battery cost exceeds $200/kWh, vehicles with greater battery range cannot continuously improve travel electrification and can reduce electrification rate. At the current battery cost of$400/kWh, targeting subsidies to vehicles with battery range around 90 miles can achieve higher electrification rate. The public charging station siting case demonstrates that individual travel patterns can better estimate charging demand and guide charging infrastructure development. Charging stations sited according to individual travel patterns can increase electrification rate by 59% to 88% compared to existing sites. Lastly, the ride sharing case shows that trip details extracted from vehicle trajectory data enable dynamic ride sharing modeling. Shared taxi rides in Beijing can reduce total travel distance and air emissions by 33% with 10-minute travel time deviation tolerance. Only minimal tolerance to travel time change (4 minutes) is needed from the riders to enable significant ride sharing (sharing 60% of the trips and saving 20% of travel distance). In summary, vehicle trajectory data can be integrated into environmental assessments to capture individual travel patterns and improve our understanding of the emerging transportation systems.PhDNatural Resources and Environment and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/113510/1/caih_1.pd

Battery capacity design for electric vehicles considering the diversity of daily vehicles miles traveled

In this paper, we study battery capacity design for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The core of such design problems is to find a good tradeoff between minimizing the capacity to reduce financial costs of drivers and increasing the capacity to satisfy daily travel demands. The major difficulty of such design problems lies in modeling the diversity of daily travel demands. Based on massive trip records of taxi drivers in Beijing, we find that the daily vehicle miles traveled (DVMT) of a driver (e.g., a taxi driver) may change significantly in different days. This investigation triggers us to propose a mixture distribution model to describe the diversity in DVMT for various driver in different days, rather than the widely employed single distribution model. To demonstrate the merit of this new model, we consider value-at-risk and mean-variance battery capacity design problems for BEV, with respect to conventional single and new mixture distribution models of DVMT. Testing results indicate that the mixture distribution model better leads to better solutions to satisfy various drivers

D3P : Data-driven demand prediction for fast expanding electric vehicle sharing systems

The future of urban mobility is expected to be shared and electric. It is not only a more sustainable paradigm that can reduce emissions, but can also bring societal benefits by offering a more affordable on-demand mobility option to the general public. Many car sharing service providers as well as automobile manufacturers are entering the competition by expanding both their EV fleets and renting/returning station networks, aiming to seize a share of the market and to bring car sharing to the zero emissions level. During their fast expansion, one determinant for success is the ability of predicting the demand of stations as the entire system is growing continuously. There are several challenges in this demand prediction problem: First, unlike most of the existing work which predicts demand only for static systems or at few stages of expansion, in the real world we often need to predict the demand as or even before stations are being deployed or closed, to provide information and decision support. Second, for the new stations to be deployed, there is no historical data available to help the prediction of their demand. Finally, the impact of deploying/closing stations on the other stations in the system can be complex. To address these challenges, we formulate the demand prediction problem in the context of fast expanding electric vehicle sharing systems, and propose a data-driven demand prediction approach which aims to model the expansion dynamics directly from the data. We use a local temporal encoding process to handle the historical data for each existing station, and a dynamic spatial encoding process to take correlations between stations into account with Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCN). The encoded features are fed to a multi-scale predictor, which forecasts both the long-term expected demand of the stations and their instant demand in the near future. We evaluate the proposed approach with real-world data collected from a major EV sharing platform for one year. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms the state of the art, showing up to three-fold performance gain in predicting demand for the expanding EV sharing systems

Electrifying urban ridesourcing fleets at no added cost through efficient use of charging infrastructure

Ridesourcing fleets present an opportunity for rapid uptake of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) but adoption has largely been limited to small pilot projects. Lack of charging infrastructure presents a major barrier to scaling up, but little public information exists on the infrastructure needed to support ridesourcing electrification. With data on ridesourcing trips for New York City and San Francisco, and using agent-based simulations of BEV fleets, we show that given a sparse network of three to four 50 kW chargers per square mile, BEVs can provide the same level of service as internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) at lower cost. This suggests that the cost of charging infrastructure is not a significant barrier to ridesourcing electrification. With coordinated use of charging infrastructure across vehicles, we also find that fleet performance becomes robust to variation in battery range and placement of chargers. Our analysis suggests that mandates on ridesourcing such as the California Clean Miles Standard could achieve electrification without significantly increasing the cost of ridesourcing services