Glassy nature of the hard phase in inference problems

An algorithmically hard phase was described in a range of inference problems: even if the signal can be reconstructed with a small error from an information theoretic point of view, known algorithms fail unless the noise-to-signal ratio is sufficiently small. This hard phase is typically understood as a metastable branch of the dynamical evolution of message passing algorithms. In this work we study the metastable branch for a prototypical inference problem, the low-rank matrix factorization, that presents a hard phase. We show that for noise-to-signal ratios that are below the information theoretic threshold, the posterior measure is composed of an exponential number of metastable glassy states and we compute their entropy, called the complexity. We show that this glassiness extends even slightly below the algorithmic threshold below which the well-known approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm is able to closely reconstruct the signal. Counter-intuitively, we find that the performance of the AMP algorithm is not improved by taking into account the glassy nature of the hard phase. This result provides further evidence that the hard phase in inference problems is algorithmically impenetrable for some deep computational reasons that remain to be uncovered.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure

A Bayesian network model to explore practice change by smallholder rice farmers in Lao PDR

© 2018 A Bayesian Network model has been developed that synthesizes findings from concurrent multi-disciplinary research activities. The model describes the many factors that impact on the chances of a smallholder farmer adopting a proposed change to farming practices. The model, when applied to four different proposed technologies, generated insights into the factors that have the greatest influence on adoption rates. Behavioural motivations for change are highly dependent on farmers' individual viewpoints and are also technology dependent. The model provides a boundary object that provides an opportunity to engage experts and other stakeholders in discussions about their assessment of the technology adoption process, and the opportunities, barriers and constraints faced by smallholder farmers when considering whether to adopt a technology

Holistic analysis of the life course: Methodological challenges and new perspectives

Abstract We survey state-of-the-art approaches to study trajectories in their entirety, adopting a holistic perspective, and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. We begin by considering sequence analysis (SA), one of the most established holistic approaches. We discuss the inherent problems arising in SA, particularly in the study of the relationship between trajectories and covariates. We describe some recent developments combining SA and Event History Analysis, and illustrate how weakening the holistic perspective—focusing on sub-trajectories—might result in a more flexible analysis of life courses. We then move to some model-based approaches (included in the broad classes of multistate and of mixture latent Markov models) that further weaken the holistic perspective, assuming that the difficult task of predicting and explaining trajectories can be simplified by focusing on the collection of observed transitions. Our goal is twofold. On one hand, we aim to provide social scientists with indications for informed methodological choices and to emphasize issues that require consideration for proper application of the described approaches. On the other hand, by identifying relevant and open methodological challenges, we highlight and encourage promising directions for future research

Path integrals, particular kinds, and strange things

This paper describes a path integral formulation of the free energy principle. The ensuing account expresses the paths or trajectories that a particle takes as it evolves over time. The main results are a method or principle of least action that can be used to emulate the behaviour of particles in open exchange with their external milieu. Particles are defined by a particular partition, in which internal states are individuated from external states by active and sensory blanket states. The variational principle at hand allows one to interpret internal dynamics - of certain kinds of particles - as inferring external states that are hidden behind blanket states. We consider different kinds of particles, and to what extent they can be imbued with an elementary form of inference or sentience. Specifically, we consider the distinction between dissipative and conservative particles, inert and active particles and, finally, ordinary and strange particles. Strange particles (look as if they) infer their own actions, endowing them with apparent autonomy or agency. In short - of the kinds of particles afforded by a particular partition - strange kinds may be apt for describing sentient behaviour.Comment: 31 pages (excluding references), 6 figure

Theory of mind and decision science: Towards a typology of tasks and computational models

The ability to form a Theory of Mind (ToM), i.e., to theorize about others’ mental states to explain and predict behavior in relation to attributed intentional states, constitutes a hallmark of human cognition. These abilities are multi-faceted and include a variety of different cognitive sub-functions. Here, we focus on decision processes in social contexts and review a number of experimental and computational modeling approaches in this field. We provide an overview of experimental accounts and formal computational models with respect to two dimensions: interactivity and uncertainty. Thereby, we aim at capturing the nuances of ToM functions in the context of social decision processes. We suggest there to be an increase in ToM engagement and multiplexing as social cognitive decision-making tasks become more interactive and uncertain. We propose that representing others as intentional and goal directed agents who perform consequential actions is elicited only at the edges of these two dimensions. Further, we argue that computational models of valuation and beliefs follow these dimensions to best allow researchers to effectively model sophisticated ToM-processes. Finally, we relate this typology to neuroimaging findings in neurotypical (NT) humans, studies of persons with autism spectrum (AS), and studies of nonhuman primates