Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges

In this work we provide a review of basic ideas and novel developments about Conformal Prediction -- an innovative distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method, based on minimal assumptions -- that is able to yield in a very straightforward way predictions sets that are valid in a statistical sense also in in the finite sample case. The in-depth discussion provided in the paper covers the theoretical underpinnings of Conformal Prediction, and then proceeds to list the more advanced developments and adaptations of the original idea.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:0706.3188, arXiv:1604.04173, arXiv:1709.06233, arXiv:1203.5422 by other author

Transductive Learning with String Kernels for Cross-Domain Text Classification

For many text classification tasks, there is a major problem posed by the lack of labeled data in a target domain. Although classifiers for a target domain can be trained on labeled text data from a related source domain, the accuracy of such classifiers is usually lower in the cross-domain setting. Recently, string kernels have obtained state-of-the-art results in various text classification tasks such as native language identification or automatic essay scoring. Moreover, classifiers based on string kernels have been found to be robust to the distribution gap between different domains. In this paper, we formally describe an algorithm composed of two simple yet effective transductive learning approaches to further improve the results of string kernels in cross-domain settings. By adapting string kernels to the test set without using the ground-truth test labels, we report significantly better accuracy rates in cross-domain English polarity classification.Comment: Accepted at ICONIP 2018. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1808.0840

Hedging predictions in machine learning

Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to design efficient prediction algorithms for data sets with huge numbers of parameters. This paper describes a new technique for "hedging" the predictions output by many such algorithms, including support vector machines, kernel ridge regression, kernel nearest neighbours, and by many other state-of-the-art methods. The hedged predictions for the labels of new objects include quantitative measures of their own accuracy and reliability. These measures are provably valid under the assumption of randomness, traditional in machine learning: the objects and their labels are assumed to be generated independently from the same probability distribution. In particular, it becomes possible to control (up to statistical fluctuations) the number of erroneous predictions by selecting a suitable confidence level. Validity being achieved automatically, the remaining goal of hedged prediction is efficiency: taking full account of the new objects' features and other available information to produce as accurate predictions as possible. This can be done successfully using the powerful machinery of modern machine learning.Comment: 24 pages; 9 figures; 2 tables; a version of this paper (with discussion and rejoinder) is to appear in "The Computer Journal

ELM regime classification by conformal prediction on an information manifold

Characterization and control of plasma instabilities known as edge-localized modes (ELMs) is crucial for the operation of fusion reactors. Recently, machine learning methods have demonstrated good potential in making useful inferences from stochastic fusion data sets. However, traditional classification methods do not offer an inherent estimate of the goodness of their prediction. In this paper, a distance-based conformal predictor classifier integrated with a geometric-probabilistic framework is presented. The first benefit of the approach lies in its comprehensive treatment of highly stochastic fusion data sets, by modeling the measurements with probability distributions in a metric space. This enables calculation of a natural distance measure between probability distributions: the Rao geodesic distance. Second, the predictions are accompanied by estimates of their accuracy and reliability. The method is applied to the classification of regimes characterized by different types of ELMs based on the measurements of global parameters and their error bars. This yields promising success rates and outperforms state-of-the-art automatic techniques for recognizing ELM signatures. The estimates of goodness of the predictions increase the confidence of classification by ELM experts, while allowing more reliable decisions regarding plasma control and at the same time increasing the robustness of the control system

Projected Estimators for Robust Semi-supervised Classification

For semi-supervised techniques to be applied safely in practice we at least want methods to outperform their supervised counterparts. We study this question for classification using the well-known quadratic surrogate loss function. Using a projection of the supervised estimate onto a set of constraints imposed by the unlabeled data, we find we can safely improve over the supervised solution in terms of this quadratic loss. Unlike other approaches to semi-supervised learning, the procedure does not rely on assumptions that are not intrinsic to the classifier at hand. It is theoretically demonstrated that, measured on the labeled and unlabeled training data, this semi-supervised procedure never gives a lower quadratic loss than the supervised alternative. To our knowledge this is the first approach that offers such strong, albeit conservative, guarantees for improvement over the supervised solution. The characteristics of our approach are explicated using benchmark datasets to further understand the similarities and differences between the quadratic loss criterion used in the theoretical results and the classification accuracy often considered in practice.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figures, 1 tabl