The pseudo-self-similar traffic model: application and validation

Since the early 1990¿s, a variety of studies has shown that network traffic, both for local- and wide-area networks, has self-similar properties. This led to new approaches in network traffic modelling because most traditional traffic approaches result in the underestimation of performance measures of interest. Instead of developing completely new traffic models, a number of researchers have proposed to adapt traditional traffic modelling approaches to incorporate aspects of self-similarity. The motivation for doing so is the hope to be able to reuse techniques and tools that have been developed in the past and with which experience has been gained. One such approach for a traffic model that incorporates aspects of self-similarity is the so-called pseudo self-similar traffic model. This model is appealing, as it is easy to understand and easily embedded in Markovian performance evaluation studies. In applying this model in a number of cases, we have perceived various problems which we initially thought were particular to these specific cases. However, we recently have been able to show that these problems are fundamental to the pseudo self-similar traffic model. In this paper we review the pseudo self-similar traffic model and discuss its fundamental shortcomings. As far as we know, this is the first paper that discusses these shortcomings formally. We also report on ongoing work to overcome some of these problems

Compact Markov-modulated models for multiclass trace fitting

Markov-modulated Poisson processes (MMPPs) are stochastic models for fitting empirical traces for simulation, workload characterization and queueing analysis purposes. In this paper, we develop the first counting process fitting algorithm for the marked MMPP (M3PP), a generalization of the MMPP for modeling traces with events of multiple types. We initially explain how to fit two-state M3PPs to empirical traces of counts. We then propose a novel form of composition, called interposition, which enables the approximate superposition of several two-state M3PPs without incurring into state space explosion. Compared to exact superposition, where the state space grows exponentially in the number of composed processes, in interposition the state space grows linearly in the number of composed M3PPs. Experimental results indicate that the proposed interposition methodology provides accurate results against artificial and real-world traces, with a significantly smaller state space than superposed processes

On identifiability of MAP processes

Two types of transitions can be found in the Markovian Arrival process or MAP: with and without arrivals. In transient transitions the chain jumps from one state to another with no arrival; in effective transitions, a single arrival occurs. We assume that in practice, only arrival times are observed in a MAP. This leads us to define and study the Effective Markovian Arrival process or E-MAP. In this work we define identifiability of MAPs in terms of equivalence between the corresponding E-MAPs and study conditions under which two sets of parameters induce identical laws for the observable process, in the case of 2 and 3-states MAP. We illustrate and discuss our results with examples

Markovian Workload Characterization for QoS Prediction in the Cloud.

Resource allocation in the cloud is usually driven by performance predictions, such as estimates of the future incoming load to the servers or of the quality-of-service (QoS) offered by applications to end users. In this context, characterizing web workload fluctuations in an accurate way is fundamental to understand how to provision cloud resources under time-varying traffic intensities. In this paper, we investigate the Markovian Arrival Processes (MAP) and the related MAP/MAP/1 queueing model as a tool for performance prediction of servers deployed in the cloud. MAPs are a special class of Markov models used as a compact description of the time-varying characteristics of workloads. In addition, MAPs can fit heavy-tail distributions, that are common in HTTP traffic, and can be easily integrated within analytical queueing models to efficiently predict system performance without simulating. By comparison with trace-driven simulation, we observe that existing techniques for MAP parameterization from HTTP log files often lead to inaccurate performance predictions. We then define a maximum likelihood method for fitting MAP parameters based on data commonly available in Apache log files, and a new technique to cope with batch arrivals, which are notoriously difficult to model accurately. Numerical experiments demonstrate the accuracy of our approach for performance prediction of web systems. © 2011 IEEE

Traffic matrix estimation in IP networks

An Origin-Destination (OD) traffic matrix provides a major input to the design, planning and management of a telecommunications network. Since the Internet is being proposed as the principal delivery mechanism for telecommunications traffic at the present time, and this network is not owned or managed by a single entity, there are significant challenges for network planners and managers needing to determine equipment and topology configurations for the various sections of the Internet that are currently the responsibility of ISPs and traditional telcos. Planning of these sub-networks typically requires a traffic matrix of demands that is then used to infer the flows on the administrator's network. Unfortunately, computation of the traffic matrix from measurements of individual flows is extremely difficult due to the fact that the problem formulation generally leads to the need to solve an under-determined system of equations. Thus, there has been a major effort from among researchers to obtain the traffic matrix using various inference techniques. The major contribution of this thesis is the development of inference techniques for traffic matrix estimation problem according to three different approaches, viz: (1) deterministic, (2) statistical, and (3) dynamic approaches. Firstly, for the deterministic approach, the traffic matrix estimation problem is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem based on the generalized Kruithof approach which uses the Kullback distance to measure the probabilistic distance between two traffic matrices. In addition, an algorithm using the Affine scaling method is developed to solve the constrained optimization problem. Secondly, for the statistical approach, a series of traffic matrices are obtained by applying a standard deterministic approach. The components of these matrices represent estimates of the volumes of flows being exchanged between all pairs of nodes at the respective measurement points and they form a stochastic counting process. Then, a Markovian Arrival Process of order two (MAP-2) is applied to model the counting processes formed from this series of estimated traffic matrices. Thirdly, for the dynamic approach, the dual problem of the multi-commodity flow problem is formulated to obtain a set of link weights. The new weight set enables flows to be rerouted along new paths, which create new constraints to overcome the under-determined nature of traffic matrix estimation. Since a weight change disturbs a network, the impact of weight changes on the network is investigated by using simulation based on the well-known ns2 simulator package. Finally, we introduce two network applications that make use of the deterministic and the statistical approaches to obtain a traffic matrix respectively and also describe a scenario for the use of the dynamic approach

Markovian arrivals in stochastic modelling: a survey and some new results

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive review on Markovian arrival processes (MAPs), which constitute a rich class of point processes used extensively in stochastic modelling. Our starting point is the versatile process introduced by Neuts (1979) which, under some simplified notation, was coined as the batch Markovian arrival process (BMAP). On the one hand, a general point process can be approximated by appropriate MAPs and, on the other hand, the MAPs provide a versatile, yet tractable option for modelling a bursty flow by preserving the Markovian formalism. While a number of well-known arrival processes are subsumed under a BMAP as special cases, the literature also shows generalizations to model arrival streams with marks, nonhomogeneous settings or even spatial arrivals. We survey on the main aspects of the BMAP, discuss on some of its variants and generalizations, and give a few new results in the context of a recent state-dependent extension.Peer Reviewe

Fitting procedure for the two-state Batch Markov modulated Poisson process

The Batch Markov Modulated Poisson Process (BMMPP) is a subclass of the versatile Batch Markovian Arrival process (BMAP) which has been proposed for the modeling of dependent events occurring in batches (as group arrivals, failures or risk events). This paper focuses on exploring the possibilities of the \bmmpp for the modeling of real phenomena involving point processes with group arrivals. The first result in this sense is the characterization of the two-state BMMPP with maximum batch size equal to K, the BMMPP2(K), by a set of moments related to the inter-event time and batch size distributions. This characterization leads to a sequential fitting approach via a moments matching method. The performance of the novel fitting approach is illustrated on both simulated and a real teletraffic data set, and compared to that of the EM algorithm. In addition, as an extension of the inference approach, the queue length distributions at departures in the queueing system BMMPP/M/1 is also estimated

Fitting procedure for the two-state Batch Markov modulated Poisson process

The Batch Markov Modulated Poisson Process (BMMPP) is a subclass of the versatile Batch Markovian Arrival process (BMAP) which has been proposed for the modeling of dependent events occurring in batches (as group arrivals, failures or risk events). This paper focuses on exploring the possibilities of the BMMPP for the modeling of real phenomena involving point processes with group arrivals. The first result in this sense is the characterization of the two-state BMMPP with maximum batch size equal to K, the BMMPP2(K), by a set of moments related to the inter-event time and batch size distributions. This characterization leads to a sequential fitting approach via a moments matching method. The performance of the novel fitting approach is illustrated on both simulated and a real teletraffic data set, and compared to that of the EM algorithm. In addition, as an extension of the inference approach, the queue length distributions at departures in the queueing system BMMPP/M/1 is also estimated