Toward Real-time Multi-criteria Decision Making for Bus Service Reliability Optimisation

This paper addresses issues associated with the real-time control of public transit operations to minimize passenger wait time: namely vehicle headway, maintenance of passenger comfort, and reducing the impact of control strategies. The randomness of passenger arrivals at bus stops and external factors (such as traffic congestion and bad weather) in high frequency transit operations often cause irregular headway that can result in decreased service reliability. The approach proposed in this paper, which has the capability of handling the uncertainty of transit operations based on Multi-objective evolutionary algorithm using a dynamic Bayesian network, applies preventive strategies to forestall bus unreliability and, where unreliability is evident, restore reliability using corrective strategies. Holding , expressing , shortturning and deadheading are the corrective strategies considered in this paper

From mode choice to modal diversion: A new behavioural paradigm and an application to the study of the demand for innovative transport services

We analyse past research efforts that focus on modal diversion in the transport sector, as opposed to the classical mode choice concept, showing the added value of this alternative framework that emerges from the existing scientific literature. The modal diversion paradigm is then used to assess the relative importance of the technical performances of transport services on one hand and of the subjective factors of its potential users on the other, when forecasting the use of a new means among a group of white-collars working in a French research institute. We quantitatively show that multimodal habits and cognitive attitudes have an importance that is in general not negligible for this group, compared to that of the transport services performances, even if only these latter are routinely considered by engineers and planners. Beyond this, we find that the role of self-related factors further increased when the group was less familiar with the technological background and the subsequent operation of the new system, such as in the case of demand responsive transport service

Mobile travel services: A three-country study into the impact of local circumstances

In this paper we explore the difference in acceptance patterns of mobile services that are related to travelling in three countries: Finland, The Netherlands and New Zealand. The objective of this paper is to understand differences in the use of Mobile Travel Services in three countries that differ with regard to national travel patterns. This paper also contributes to the discussion of the relevance of the Technology Acceptance Model for mobile applications by focusing on the importance of context characteristics, such as the degree of mobility of the user, the social situation people are in, and their need for social interaction. Based on surveys in the three countries as executed in 2009, we use structural equation modelling to find differences in patterns. The paper concludes that context factors have an impact on the relation between the core concepts as used in TAM and DOI approach, and that t here is a clear need for closer research in the moderating effect of physical (e.g. mobile and fixed context) and social context, as well as the need for social interaction. Moreover it is clear that country specific characteristics play a role in the acceptance of mobile travel services. As we pointed out in many of our research projects before the acceptance and use of mobile services requires deep understanding from individual, context and technology related characteristics and their mutual interactions

A Review of Trip Planning Systems.

This report reviews current information provision in all modes of transport and assesses the needs for and benefits of trip planning systems. The feasibility of trip planning systems is discussed given the current state of technology and information availability and supply. The review was stimulated by technological developments in telecommunications and information technology which are providing the possibility of a greatly enhanced quality of information to aid trip planning decisions. Amongst the conclusions reached were the following: Current information provision is considered deficient in many respects. Travellers are often unaware of alternative routes or services and many are unable to acquire adequate information from one source especially for multi-modal journeys. In addition, there is a lack of providing real time information where it is required (bus stops and train stations) and of effective interaction of static and real time information. Most of the projects, which integrate static and dynamic data, are single mode systems. Therefore there is a need for an integrated trip planning system which can inform and guide on all aspects of transport. Trip planning systems can provide assistance in trip planning (before and during the journey) using one or a number of modes of travel, taking into account travellers preferences and constraints, and effectively integrating static and dynamic data. Trip planning systems could adversely affect traffic demand as people who become aware of new opportunities might be encouraged to make more journeys. It could also affect travellers choice as a result of over-saturation of information, over-reaction to predictive information, and concentration on the same 'best' routes. However, it can be argued, based on existing evidence, that such a system can benefit travellers, and transport operators as well as the public sector responsible for executing transport policies. Travellers can benefit by obtaining adequate information to help them in making optimal decisions and reducing uncertainty and stress associated with travel. Public transport operators can benefit by making their services known to customers, leading to increased patronage. Public transport authorities can use the supply of information to execute their transport policies and exercise more control over traffic management

Challenges to the Integration of Renewable Resources at High System Penetration

Successfully integrating renewable resources into the electric grid at penetration levels to meet a 33 percent Renewables Portfolio Standard for California presents diverse technical and organizational challenges. This report characterizes these challenges by coordinating problems in time and space, balancing electric power on a range of scales from microseconds to decades and from individual homes to hundreds of miles. Crucial research needs were identified related to grid operation, standards and procedures, system design and analysis, and incentives, and public engagement in each scale of analysis. Performing this coordination on more refined scales of time and space independent of any particular technology, is defined as a “smart grid.” “Smart” coordination of the grid should mitigate technical difficulties associated with intermittent and distributed generation, support grid stability and reliability, and maximize benefits to California ratepayers by using the most economic technologies, design and operating approaches

Improving Livability Using Green and Active Modes: A Traffic Stress Level Analysis of Transit, Bicycle, and Pedestrian Access and Mobility

Understanding the relative attractiveness of alternatives to driving is vitally important toward lowering driving rates and, by extension, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), traffic congestion, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, etc. The relative effectiveness of automobile alternatives (i.e., buses, bicycling, and walking) depends on how well streets are designed to work for these respective modes in terms of safety, comfort and cost, which can sometimes pit their relative effectiveness against each other. In this report, the level of traffic stress (LTS) criteria previously developed by two of the authors was used to determine how the streets functioned for these auto alternative modes. The quality and extent of the transit service area was measured using a total travel time metric over the LTS network. The model developed in this study was applied to two transit routes in Oakland, California, and Denver, Colorado

Mobile travel services: the effect of moderating context factors

This article has two objectives: (1) to draw an international comparison regarding the acceptance of mobile travel services in three countries with different profiles when it comes to travelling and mobile telecommunications, and (2) to extend relevant literature on mobile applications, more specifically travel services, by including context-related concepts, taking moderating factors like location, mobility of users, physical, and social context into account. Based on surveys that were carried out in 2009, structural equation modelling is used to identify differences in patterns in the use of mobile travel services and in the role of context-related variables. the conclusion of this article is that context-related factors, that is, mobility and (physical and social) context, have an impact on the relationship between the core concepts of technology Acceptance model (TAM) and Diffusion of Innovation (DoI) research. many studies on the acceptance and use of mobile services indicate that a deep understanding is needed of individual, context-related, and technological characteristics and the way they interact. this is also highly relevant to the travel industry, which wants to utilize the opportunities provided by mobile technology

Component Outage Estimation based on Support Vector Machine

Predicting power system component outages in response to an imminent hurricane plays a major role in preevent planning and post-event recovery of the power system. An exact prediction of components states, however, is a challenging task and cannot be easily performed. In this paper, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) based method is proposed to help estimate the components states in response to anticipated path and intensity of an imminent hurricane. Components states are categorized into three classes of damaged, operational, and uncertain. The damaged components along with the components in uncertain class are then considered in multiple contingency scenarios of a proposed Event-driven Security-Constrained Unit Commitment (E-SCUC), which considers the simultaneous outage of multiple components under an N-m-u reliability criterion. Experimental results on the IEEE 118-bus test system show the merits and the effectiveness of the proposed SVM classifier and the E-SCUC model in improving power system resilience in response to extreme events