Dimensionality Reduction and Visualisation Tools for Voting Records

Abstract. Recorded votes in legislative bodies are an important source of data for political scientists. Voting records can be used to describe parliamentary processes, identify ideological divides between members and reveal the strength of party cohesion. We explore the problem of working with vote data using popular dimensionality reduction techniques and cluster validation methods, as an alternative to more traditional scaling techniques. We present results of dimensionality reduction techniques applied to votes from the 6th and 7th European Parliaments, covering activity from 2004 to 2014

Keyword Assisted Topic Models

For a long time, many social scientists have conducted content analysis by using their substantive knowledge and manually coding documents. In recent years, however, fully automated content analysis based on probabilistic topic models has become increasingly popular because of their scalability. Unfortunately, applied researchers find that these models often fail to yield topics of their substantive interest by inadvertently creating multiple topics with similar content and combining different themes into a single topic. In this paper, we empirically demonstrate that providing topic models with a small number of keywords can substantially improve their performance. The proposed keyword assisted topic model (keyATM) offers an important advantage that the specification of keywords requires researchers to label topics prior to fitting a model to the data. This contrasts with a widespread practice of post-hoc topic interpretation and adjustments that compromises the objectivity of empirical findings. In our applications, we find that the keyATM provides more interpretable results, has better document classification performance, and is less sensitive to the number of topics than the standard topic models. Finally, we show that the keyATM can also incorporate covariates and model time trends. An open-source software package is available for implementing the proposed methodology

Guided Probabilistic Topic Models for Agenda-setting and Framing

Probabilistic topic models are powerful methods to uncover hidden thematic structures in text by projecting each document into a low dimensional space spanned by a set of topics. Given observed text data, topic models infer these hidden structures and use them for data summarization, exploratory analysis, and predictions, which have been applied to a broad range of disciplines. Politics and political conflicts are often captured in text. Traditional approaches to analyze text in political science and other related fields often require close reading and manual labeling, which is labor-intensive and hinders the use of large-scale collections of text. Recent work, both in computer science and political science, has used automated content analysis methods, especially topic models to substantially reduce the cost of analyzing text at large scale. In this thesis, we follow this approach and develop a series of new probabilistic topic models, guided by additional information associated with the text, to discover and analyze agenda-setting (i.e., what topics people talk about) and framing (i.e., how people talk about those topics), a central research problem in political science, communication, public policy and other related fields. We first focus on study agendas and agenda control behavior in political debates and other conversations. The model we introduce, Speaker Identity for Topic Segmentation (SITS), is able to discover what topics that are talked about during the debates, when these topics change, and a speaker-specific measure of agenda control. To make the analysis process more effective, we build Argviz, an interactive visualization which leverages SITS's outputs to allow users to quickly grasp the conversational topic dynamics, discover when the topic changes and by whom, and interactively visualize the conversation's details on demand. We then analyze policy agendas in a more general setting of political text. We present the Label to Hierarchy (L2H) model to learn a hierarchy of topics from multi-labeled data, in which each document is tagged with multiple labels. The model captures the dependencies among labels using an interpretable tree-structured hierarchy, which helps provide insights about the political attentions that policymakers focus on, and how these policy issues relate to each other. We then go beyond just agenda-setting and expand our focus to framing--the study of how agenda issues are talked about, which can be viewed as second-level agenda-setting. To capture this hierarchical views of agendas and frames, we introduce the Supervised Hierarchical Latent Dirichlet Allocation (SHLDA) model, which jointly captures a collection of documents, each is associated with a continuous response variable such as the ideological position of the document's author on a liberal-conservative spectrum. In the topic hierarchy discovered by SHLDA, higher-level nodes map to more general agenda issues while lower-level nodes map to issue-specific frames. Although qualitative analysis shows that the topic hierarchies learned by SHLDA indeed capture the hierarchical view of agenda-setting and framing motivating the work, interpreting the discovered hierarchy still incurs moderately high cost due to the complex and abstract nature of framing. Motivated by improving the hierarchy, we introduce Hierarchical Ideal Point Topic Model (HIPTM) which jointly models a collection of votes (e.g., congressional roll call votes) and both the text associated with the voters (e.g., members of Congress) and the items (e.g., congressional bills). Customized specifically for capturing the two-level view of agendas and frames, HIPTM learns a two-level hierarchy of topics, in which first-level nodes map to an interpretable policy issue and second-level nodes map to issue-specific frames. In addition, instead of using pre-computed response variable, HIPTM also jointly estimates the ideological positions of voters on multiple interpretable dimensions

Stance detection on social media: State of the art and trends

Stance detection on social media is an emerging opinion mining paradigm for various social and political applications in which sentiment analysis may be sub-optimal. There has been a growing research interest for developing effective methods for stance detection methods varying among multiple communities including natural language processing, web science, and social computing. This paper surveys the work on stance detection within those communities and situates its usage within current opinion mining techniques in social media. It presents an exhaustive review of stance detection techniques on social media, including the task definition, different types of targets in stance detection, features set used, and various machine learning approaches applied. The survey reports state-of-the-art results on the existing benchmark datasets on stance detection, and discusses the most effective approaches. In addition, this study explores the emerging trends and different applications of stance detection on social media. The study concludes by discussing the gaps in the current existing research and highlights the possible future directions for stance detection on social media.Comment: We request withdrawal of this article sincerely. We will re-edit this paper. Please withdraw this article before we finish the new versio

The difference constitutions make: a global inquiry into the impacts of institutional design

This dissertation provides an international perspective on the problem of constitutional engineering. At its heart it is an assessment of the direction and magnitude of constitutional effects on the quality and robustness of government, taken from two major constitutional paradigms: that of constitutional regime types and that of inclusive-versus-exclusive democratic competitiveness. Constitutional performance is evaluated in terms of effects on measurements of governance across dimensions such as rule of law, social welfare and fiscal management, which are measured based on citizen perceptions and other aggregates. The analysis moves in four stages. First, an analysis of regime types treated endogenously. Second, an estimation of regime type effects on three dimensions of good governance. This is proceeded by another estimation exercise, this time on the regime type effects on fiscal management. Finally, there is an assessment of the social welfare effects of power-sharing institutions. I find evidence in favour of the hypothesis that alloy constitutional models attenuate the effects of presidentialism and parliamentarism. The presidential system is also found to perform well with respect to fiscal management. Power-sharing institutions generally have positive effects on social welfare but these remarks must be qualified by the extent to which power-sharing institutions tend toward rent-seeking and inefficiency, and by the extent to which under stronger controls, related to making national aggregates more commensurable, this evidence appears to dissolve

Recent Advances in Social Data and Artificial Intelligence 2019

The importance and usefulness of subjects and topics involving social data and artificial intelligence are becoming widely recognized. This book contains invited review, expository, and original research articles dealing with, and presenting state-of-the-art accounts pf, the recent advances in the subjects of social data and artificial intelligence, and potentially their links to Cyberspace

Economics of Institutions and Law

This book provides a set of lectures for an intermediate course in Public economics devoted to four topics, in many elements related each other. The first one is the Economics of institutions and political economy, as a general framework to analyze the public intervention in modern economies. The second one is the Economics of Law, which is at the basis of the working of the exchange economy. The third one is the Economics of public services enterprises ownership and the fourth one is the Economics of the organization of public administration in providing public services, with particular reference to the National health care systems and to the local public municipalities. As the standard textbooks in the field usually do not treat within unitary and comprehensive terms these issues, the book would provide an attempt in this direction