A simulation model for the procedure of psychiatric patients\u27 diversion at william r. sharpe, jr. hospital using flocking algorithm for input modeling

The high rate of civil commitment in West Virginia indicates that the bureau of mental health in the state has been inefficient and unproductive at facilitating the procedures of mental health system delivery, to the point that the two state hospitals of West Virginia are often at their full capacity and incapable of admitting any new cases. This inadequacy at managing psychiatric emergencies causes frequent diversion of civil committed patients from the state psychiatric hospitals to other community psychiatric units, and ultimately costs the state an un-budgeted {dollar}4 million annually.;The main objective of this research is to contribute to the improvement of the mental healthcare system in West Virginia for psychiatric patients, as well as employees and all the other involved parties which benefit. This is done by optimizing capacity-related decisions at William R. Sharpe, Jr. Hospital, one of the main assigned centers for psychiatric issues in the state.;In order to achieve this outcome, this work intends to first model the arrival process of different psychiatric patients to William R. Sharpe, Jr. Hospital based on data-driven simulation for complex multi-dimensional time series, by applying a flocking algorithm to the available dataset. Including the scheme of simulating patient arrivals, a simulation model is developed to model the patients\u27 arrivals, stay, and departures at the hospital. Sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the impacts of various variables such as the capacity of the hospital, the number of patient arrivals of a particular category, etc

Towards A Novel Unified Framework for Developing Formal, Network and Validated Agent-Based Simulation Models of Complex Adaptive Systems

Literature on the modeling and simulation of complex adaptive systems (cas) has primarily advanced vertically in different scientific domains with scientists developing a variety of domain-specific approaches and applications. However, while cas researchers are inherently interested in an interdisciplinary comparison of models, to the best of our knowledge, there is currently no single unified framework for facilitating the development, comparison, communication and validation of models across different scientific domains. In this thesis, we propose first steps towards such a unified framework using a combination of agent-based and complex network-based modeling approaches and guidelines formulated in the form of a set of four levels of usage, which allow multidisciplinary researchers to adopt a suitable framework level on the basis of available data types, their research study objectives and expected outcomes, thus allowing them to better plan and conduct their respective research case studies. Firstly, the complex network modeling level of the proposed framework entails the development of appropriate complex network models for the case where interaction data of cas components is available, with the aim of detecting emergent patterns in the cas under study. The exploratory agent-based modeling level of the proposed framework allows for the development of proof-of-concept models for the cas system, primarily for purposes of exploring feasibility of further research. Descriptive agent-based modeling level of the proposed framework allows for the use of a formal step-by-step approach for developing agent-based models coupled with a quantitative complex network and pseudocode-based specification of the model, which will, in turn, facilitate interdisciplinary cas model comparison and knowledge transfer. Finally, the validated agent-based modeling level of the proposed framework is concerned with the building of in-simulation verification and validation of agent-based models using a proposed Virtual Overlay Multiagent System approach for use in a systematic team-oriented approach to developing models. The proposed framework is evaluated and validated using seven detailed case study examples selected from various scientific domains including ecology, social sciences and a range of complex adaptive communication networks. The successful case studies demonstrate the potential of the framework in appealing to multidisciplinary researchers as a methodological approach to the modeling and simulation of cas by facilitating effective communication and knowledge transfer across scientific disciplines without the requirement of extensive learning curves

Augmenting Bottom-Up Metamodels with Predicates

Metamodeling refers to modeling a model. There are two metamodeling approaches for ABMs: (1) top-down and (2) bottom-up. The top down approach enables users to decompose high-level mental models into behaviors and interactions of agents. In contrast, the bottom-up approach constructs a relatively small, simple model that approximates the structure and outcomes of a dataset gathered fromthe runs of an ABM. The bottom-up metamodel makes behavior of the ABM comprehensible and exploratory analyses feasible. Formost users the construction of a bottom-up metamodel entails: (1) creating an experimental design, (2) running the simulation for all cases specified by the design, (3) collecting the inputs and output in a dataset and (4) applying first-order regression analysis to find a model that effectively estimates the output. Unfortunately, the sums of input variables employed by first-order regression analysis give the impression that one can compensate for one component of the system by improving some other component even if such substitution is inadequate or invalid. As a result the metamodel can be misleading. We address these deficiencies with an approach that: (1) automatically generates Boolean conditions that highlight when substitutions and tradeoffs among variables are valid and (2) augments the bottom-up metamodel with the conditions to improve validity and accuracy. We evaluate our approach using several established agent-based simulations

Intelligent group movement and selection in realtime strategy games

Movement of groups in realtime strategy games is often a nuisance: Units travel and battle separately, resulting in huge losses and the AI looking dumb. This applies to computer as well as human commanded factions. We suggest to tackle that by using flocking improved by influence-map based pathfinding which leads to a much more natural and intelligent looking behavior. A similar problem occurs if the computer AI has to select groups to combat a specific target: Assignment of units to groups, especially for multiple enemy groups, is often suboptimal when units have very different attack skills. This can be cured by using offline prepared self-organizing feature maps that use all available information for looking up good matches. We demonstrate that these two approaches work well separately, but also that they go together very naturally, thereby leading to an improved and - via parametrization - very flexible group behavior. Opponent AI may be strenghtened that way as well as player-supportive AI. A thorough experimental analysis supports our claims

Flocc: From Agent-Based Models to Interactive Simulations on the Web

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a computational technique wherein systems are represented through the actions and interactions of many individual entities (‘agents’) over time. ABM often attempts to elucidate the unpredictable, high-level behavior of systems through the predictable, low-level behavior of actors within the system. There are currently few software or frameworks for ABM that allow modelers to design and build interactive models on the web, for a wide audience as well as a scientifically literate audience well-versed in complexity, models, and simulations. Flocc is a novel framework for agent-based modeling written in JavaScript, the lingua franca programming language of the web (which can also run on servers or one’s machine). In this paper, we present Flocc’s main features and show how it can be used by scientists, data journalists, web developers, and others to create web-based simulations able to be viewed and interacted with by anyone with a modern web browser. By lowering the barrier to entry to complexity science, we contend that Flocc shows promise as a pedagogical tool as well as a software for exploring complex systems

Document Collection Visualization and Clustering Using An Atom Metaphor for Display and Interaction

Visual Data Mining have proven to be of high value in exploratory data analysis and data mining because it provides an intuitive feedback on data analysis and support decision-making activities. Several visualization techniques have been developed for cluster discovery such as Grand Tour, HD-Eye, Star Coordinates, etc. They are very useful tool which are visualized in 2D or 3D; however, they have not simple for users who are not trained. This thesis proposes a new approach to build a 3D clustering visualization system for document clustering by using k-mean algorithm. A cluster will be represented by a neutron (centroid) and electrons (documents) which will keep a distance with neutron by force. Our approach employs quantified domain knowledge and explorative observation as prediction to map high dimensional data onto 3D space for revealing the relationship among documents. User can perform an intuitive visual assessment of the consistency of the cluster structure

Agent-based modeling for environmental management. Case study: virus dynamics affecting Norwegian fish farming in fjords

Background: Norwegian fish-farming industry is an important industry, rapidly growing, and facing significant challenges such as the spread of pathogens1, trade-off between locations, fish production and health. There is a need for research, i.e. the development of theories (models), methods, techniques and tools for analysis, prediction and management, i.e. strategy development, policy design and decision making, to facilitate a sustainable industry. Loss due to the disease outbreaks in the aquaculture systems pose a large risk to a sustainable fish industry system, and pose a risk to the coastal and fjord ecosystem systems as a whole. Norwegian marine aquaculture systems are located in open areas (i.e. fjords) where they overlap and interact with other systems (e.g. transport, wild life, tourist, etc.). For instance, shedding viruses from aquaculture sites affect the wild fish in the whole fjord system. Fish disease spread and pathogen transmission in such complex systems, is process that it is difficult to predict, analyze, and control. There are several time-variant factors such as fish density, environmental conditions and other biological factors that affect the spread process. In this thesis, we developed methods to examine these factors on fish disease spread in fish populations and on pathogen spread in the time-space domain. Then we develop methods to control and manage the aquaculture system by finding optimal system settings in order to have a minimum infection risk and a high production capacity. Aim: The overall objective of the thesis is to develop agent-based models, methods and tools to facilitate the management of aquaculture production in Norwegian fjords by predicting the pathogen dynamics, distribution, and transmission in marine aquaculture systems. Specifically, the objectives are to assess agent-based modeling as an approach to understanding fish disease spread processes, to develop agent-based models that help us predict, analyze and understand disease dynamics in the context of various scenarios, and to develop a framework to optimize the location and the load of the aquaculture systems so as to minimize the infection risk in a growing fish industry. Methods: We use agent-based method to build models to simulate disease dynamics in fish populations and to simulate pathogen transmission between several aquaculture sites in a Norwegian fjord. Also, we use particle swarm optimization algorithm to identify agent-based models’ parameters so as to optimize the dynamics of the system model. In this context, we present a framework for using a particle swarm optimization algorithm to identify the parameter values of the agent-based model of aquaculture system that are expected to yield the optimal fish densities and farm locations that avoid the risk of spreading disease. The use of particle swarm optimization algorithm helps in identifying optimal agent-based models’ input parameters depending on the feedback from the agentbased models’ outputs. Results: As the thesis is built on three main studies, the results of the thesis work can be divided into three components. In the first study, we developed many agent-based models to simulate fish disease spread in stand-alone fish populations. We test the models in different scenarios by varying the agents (i.e. fish and pathogens) parameters, environment parameters (i.e. seawater temperature and currents), and interactions (interaction between agents-agents, and agents-environment) parameters. We use sensitivity analysis method to test different key input parameters such as fish density, fish swimming behavior, seawater temperature, and sea currents to show their effects on the disease spread process. Exploring the sensitivity of fish disease dynamics to these key parameters helps in combatting fish disease spread. In the second study, we build infection risk maps in a space-time domain, by developing agent-based models to identify the pathogen transmission patterns. The agent-based method helps us advance our understanding of pathogen transmission and builds risk maps to help us reduce the spread of infectious fish diseases. By using this method, we may study the spatial and dynamic aspects of the spread of infections and address the stochastic nature of the infection process. In the third study, we developed a framework for the optimization of the aquaculture systems. The framework uses particle swarm optimization algorithm to optimize agent-based models’ parameters so as to optimize the objective function. The framework was tested by developing a model to find optimal fish densities and farm locations in marine aquaculture system in a Norwegian fjord. Results show so that the rapid convergence of the presented particle swarm optimization algorithm to the optimal solution, - the algorithm requires a maximum of 18 iterations to find the best solution which can increase the fish density to three times while keeping the risk of infection at an accepted level. Conclusion: There are many contributions of this research work. First, we assessed the agent-based modeling as a method to simulate and analyze fish disease spread dynamics as a foundation for managing aquaculture systems. Results from this study demonstrate how effective the use of agentbased method is in the simulation of infectious diseases. By using this method, we are able to study spatial aspects of the spread of fish diseases and address the stochastic nature of infections process. Agent-based models are flexible, and they can include many external factors that affect fish disease dynamics such as interactions with wild fish and ship traffic. Agent-based models successfully help us to overcome the problem associated with lack of data in fish disease transmission and contribute to our understanding of different cause-effects relationships in the dynamics of fish diseases. Secondly, we developed methods to build infection risk maps in a space-time domain conditioned upon the identification of the pathogen transmission patterns in such a space-time domain, so as to help prevent and, if needed, combat infectious fish diseases by informing the management of the fish industry in Norway. Finally, we developed a method by which we may optimize the fish densities and farm locations of aquaculture systems so as to ensure a sustainable fish industry with a minimum risk of infection and a high production capacity. This PhD study offers new research-based approaches, models and tools for analysis, predictions and management that can be used to facilitate a sustainable development of the marine aquaculture industry with a maximal economic outcome and a minimal environmental impact