Potential applications of simulation modelling techniques in healthcare: lessons learned from aerospace and military

The Aerospace and Military areas are to do with complex missions and situations. Modelling and Simulation (M&S) has been applied in many areas of defence ranging from space sciences, satellite engineering to multi-warfare (air warfare, undersea warfare), air & missile defence, acquisition, tactical military trainings & exercises, national security analysis and strategic decision making & planning, etc. The application of simulation modelling techniques in healthcare would improve the provision of healthcare services; however, their application has been much relatively feeble in the healthcare sector as compared to the defence sector. This paper presents results from a systematic literature survey on applications of modelling simulation techniques in the Aerospace & Military. The knowledge gained or lessons learned from the survey were finally used to analyze the potential applications of the simulation modelling techniques to the healthcare sector. Results show that in the defence sector, Distributed Simulation has now become a widely adopted technique. However, System Dynamics (SD) and Discrete Event Simulation (DSE) have also gained relative attention. From this survey it becomes clear that various simulation modelling techniques are useful for specific purposes and have potential applications in the healthcare sector

Application of Web Services to a Simulation Framework

The Joint Semi-Automated Forces (JSAF) simulator is an excellent tool for military training and a great testbed for new SAF behaviors. However, it has the drawback that behaviors must be ported into its own Finite State Machine (FSM) language. Web Services is a growing technology that seamlessly connects service providers to service consumers. This work attempts to merge these two technologies by modeling SAF behaviors as web services. The JSAF simulator is then modeled as a web service consumer. This approach allows new Semi-Automated Forces (SAF) behaviors to be developed independently of the simulator, which provides the developer with greater flexibility when choosing a programming language, development environment, and development platform. In addition to new SAF behaviors, this approach also supports any external component that can be modeled as a web service. Furthermore, these services are often run over a network, which distributes the computational load across several computers. Finally, hosting copies of a single service on several machines, a concept similar to file-sharing mirrors, offers an environment for load-balancing. This means if several entities are running the same behavior, a single server does not perform the computation for every entity. Instead, each entity is assigned to a specific server, increasing the quality of service seen by the system. A Web Services framework linking JSAF with several services is designed and implemented. Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) behaviors written in MATLAB and a behavior recognition system are integrated with JSAF. These behaviors and the recognition tool were developed by other researchers, independent of this work. Results show that offloading computation to other machines is beneficial, especially when the simulation system is under heavy load. Preliminary results also indicate that load-balancing performs much better than using a single server

The Emergence of Agent-Based Technology as an Architectural Component of Serious Games

The evolution of games as an alternative to traditional simulations in the military context has been gathering momentum over the past five years, even though the exploration of their use in the serious sense has been ongoing since the mid-nineties. Much of the focus has been on the aesthetics of the visuals provided by the core game engine as well as the artistry provided by talented development teams to produce not only breathtaking artwork, but highly immersive game play. Consideration of game technology is now so much a part of the modeling and simulation landscape that it is becoming difficult to distinguish traditional simulation solutions from game-based approaches. But games have yet to provide the much needed interactive free play that has been the domain of semi-autonomous forces (SAF). The component-based middleware architecture that game engines provide promises a great deal in terms of options for the integration of agent solutions to support the development of non-player characters that engage the human player without the deterministic nature of scripted behaviors. However, there are a number of hard-learned lessons on the modeling and simulation side of the equation that game developers have yet to learn, such as: correlation of heterogeneous systems, scalability of both terrain and numbers of non-player entities, and the bi-directional nature of simulation to game interaction provided by Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS) and High Level Architecture (HLA)

MODELLING & SIMULATION HYBRID WARFARE Researches, Models and Tools for Hybrid Warfare and Population Simulation

The Hybrid Warfare phenomena, which is the subject of the current research, has been framed by the work of Professor Agostino Bruzzone (University of Genoa) and Professor Erdal Cayirci (University of Stavanger), that in June 2016 created in order to inquiry the subject a dedicated Exploratory Team, which was endorsed by NATO Modelling & Simulation Group (a panel of the NATO Science & Technology organization) and established with the participation as well of the author. The author brought his personal contribution within the ET43 by introducing meaningful insights coming from the lecture of \u201cFight by the minutes: Time and the Art of War (1994)\u201d, written by Lieutenant Colonel US Army (Rtd.) Robert Leonhard; in such work, Leonhard extensively developed the concept that \u201cTime\u201d, rather than geometry of the battlefield and/or firepower, is the critical factor to tackle in military operations and by extension in Hybrid Warfare. The critical reflection about the time - both in its quantitative and qualitative dimension - in a hybrid confrontation it is addressed and studied inside SIMCJOH, a software built around challenges that imposes literally to \u201cFight by the minutes\u201d, echoing the core concept expressed in the eponymous work. Hybrid Warfare \u2013 which, by definition and purpose, aims to keep the military commitment of both aggressor and defender at the lowest - can gain enormous profit by employing a wide variety of non-military tools, turning them into a weapon, as in the case of the phenomena of \u201cweaponization of mass migrations\u201d, as it is examined in the \u201cDies Irae\u201d simulation architecture. Currently, since migration it is a very sensitive and divisive issue among the public opinions of many European countries, cynically leveraging on a humanitarian emergency caused by an exogenous, inducted migration, could result in a high level of political and social destabilization, which indeed favours the concurrent actions carried on by other hybrid tools. Other kind of disruption however, are already available in the arsenal of Hybrid Warfare, such cyber threats, information campaigns lead by troll factories for the diffusion of fake/altered news, etc. From this perspective the author examines how the TREX (Threat network simulation for REactive eXperience) simulator is able to offer insights about a hybrid scenario characterized by an intense level of social disruption, brought by cyber-attacks and systemic faking of news. Furthermore, the rising discipline of \u201cStrategic Engineering\u201d, as envisaged by Professor Agostino Bruzzone, when matched with the operational requirements to fulfil in order to counter Hybrid Threats, it brings another innovative, as much as powerful tool, into the professional luggage of the military and the civilian employed in Defence and Homeland security sectors. Hybrid is not the New War. What is new is brought by globalization paired with the transition to the information age and rising geopolitical tensions, which have put new emphasis on hybrid hostilities that manifest themselves in a contemporary way. Hybrid Warfare is a deliberate choice of an aggressor. While militarily weak nations can resort to it in order to re-balance the odds, instead military strong nations appreciate its inherent effectiveness coupled with the denial of direct responsibility, thus circumventing the rules of the International Community (IC). In order to be successful, Hybrid Warfare should consist of a highly coordinated, sapient mix of diverse and dynamic combination of regular forces, irregular forces (even criminal elements), cyber disruption etc. all in order to achieve effects across the entire DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT spectrum. However, the owner of the strategy, i.e. the aggressor, by keeping the threshold of impunity as high as possible and decreasing the willingness of the defender, can maintain his Hybrid Warfare at a diplomatically feasible level; so the model of the capacity, willingness and threshold, as proposed by Cayirci, Bruzzone and Gunneriusson (2016), remains critical to comprehend Hybrid Warfare. Its dynamicity is able to capture the evanescent, blurring line between Hybrid Warfare and Conventional Warfare. In such contest time is the critical factor: this because it is hard to foreseen for the aggressor how long he can keep up with such strategy without risking either the retaliation from the International Community or the depletion of resources across its own DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT spectrum. Similar discourse affects the defender: if he isn\u2019t able to cope with Hybrid Threats (i.e. taking no action), time works against him; if he is, he can start to develop counter narrative and address physical countermeasures. However, this can lead, in the medium long period, to an unforeseen (both for the attacker and the defender) escalation into a large, conventional, armed conflict. The performance of operations that required more than kinetic effects drove the development of DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT models and in turn this drive the development of Human Social Culture Behavior Modelling (HCSB), which should stand at the core of the Hybrid Warfare modelling and simulation efforts. Multi Layers models are fundamental to evaluate Strategies and Support Decisions: currently there are favourable conditions to implement models of Hybrid Warfare, such as Dies Irae, SIMCJOH and TREX, in order to further develop tools and war-games for studying new tactics, execute collective training and to support decisions making and analysis planning. The proposed approach is based on the idea to create a mosaic made by HLA interoperable simulators able to be combined as tiles to cover an extensive part of the Hybrid Warfare, giving the users an interactive and intuitive environment based on the \u201cModelling interoperable Simulation and Serious Game\u201d (MS2G) approach. From this point of view, the impressive capabilities achieved by IA-CGF in human behavior modeling to support population simulation as well as their native HLA structure, suggests to adopt them as core engine in this application field. However, it necessary to highlight that, when modelling DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT domains, the researcher has to be aware of the bias introduced by the fact that especially Political and Social \u201cscience\u201d are accompanied and built around value judgement. From this perspective, the models proposed by Cayirci, Bruzzone, Guinnarson (2016) and by Balaban & Mileniczek (2018) are indeed a courageous tentative to import, into the domain of particularly poorly understood phenomena (social, politics, and to a lesser degree economics - Hartley, 2016), the mathematical and statistical instruments and the methodologies employed by the pure, hard sciences. Nevertheless, just using the instruments and the methodology of the hard sciences it is not enough to obtain the objectivity, and is such aspect the representations of Hybrid Warfare mechanics could meet their limit: this is posed by the fact that they use, as input for the equations that represents Hybrid Warfare, not physical data observed during a scientific experiment, but rather observation of the reality that assumes implicitly and explicitly a value judgment, which could lead to a biased output. Such value judgement it is subjective, and not objective like the mathematical and physical sciences; when this is not well understood and managed by the academic and the researcher, it can introduce distortions - which are unacceptable for the purpose of the Science - which could be used as well to enforce a narrative mainstream that contains a so called \u201ctruth\u201d, which lies inside the boundary of politics rather than Science. Those observations around subjectivity of social sciences vs objectivity of pure sciences, being nothing new, suggest however the need to examine the problem under a new perspective, less philosophical and more leaned toward the practical application. The suggestion that the author want make here is that the Verification and Validation process, in particular the methodology used by Professor Bruzzone in doing V&V for SIMCJOH (2016) and the one described in the Modelling & Simulation User Risk Methodology (MURM) developed by Pandolfini, Youngblood et all (2018), could be applied to evaluate if there is a bias and the extent of the it, or at least making clear the value judgment adopted in developing the DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT models. Such V&V research is however outside the scope of the present work, even though it is an offspring of it, and for such reason the author would like to make further inquiries on this particular subject in the future. Then, the theoretical discourse around Hybrid Warfare has been completed addressing the need to establish a new discipline, Strategic Engineering, very much necessary because of the current a political and economic environment which allocates diminishing resources to Defense and Homeland Security (at least in Europe). However, Strategic Engineering can successfully address its challenges when coupled with the understanding and the management of the fourth dimension of military and hybrid operations, Time. For the reasons above, and as elaborated by Leonhard and extensively discussed in the present work, addressing the concern posed by Time dimension is necessary for the success of any military or Hybrid confrontation. The SIMCJOH project, examined under the above perspective, proved that the simulator has the ability to address the fourth dimension of military and non-military confrontation. In operations, Time is the most critical factor during execution, and this was successfully transferred inside the simulator; as such, SIMCJOH can be viewed as a training tool and as well a dynamic generator of events for the MEL/MIL execution during any exercise. In conclusion, SIMCJOH Project successfully faces new challenging aspects, allowed to study and develop new simulation models in order to support decision makers, Commanders and their Staff. Finally, the question posed by Leonhard in terms of recognition of the importance of time management of military operations - nowadays Hybrid Conflict - has not been answered yet; however, the author believes that Modelling and Simulation tools and techniques can represent the safe \u201ctank\u201d where innovative and advanced scientific solutions can be tested, exploiting the advantage of doing it in a synthetic environment

Relational oriented systems engineering framework for flight training

The integration of systems of systems (SoS) associated with a flight training mission directly reflects the problem of developing a system engineering process for the design of live, virtual and constructive (LVC) experiments. Due to the complexity and disparity of the technology in a flight training SoS (FTSoS), modeling and analysis of architecture is becoming increasingly important. Relational Oriented Systems Engineering (ROSE) methodology is used to develop a framework for simulation and analysis of a navigational SoS for a typical aircraft. The framework can be used for both the prescription of navigation systems entering and exiting the SoS and for the analysis of pilot behavior as navigation quality of service (QoS) changes. ROSE offers a novel approach to developing a model-based systems engineering (MBSE) process for simulation and analysis of a complex SoS problem

Distributed and Interactive Simulations Operating at Large Scale for Transcontinental Experimentation

This paper addresses the use of emerging technologies to respond to the increasing needs for larger and more sophisticated agent-based simulations of urban areas. The U.S. Joint Forces Command has found it useful to seek out and apply technologies largely developed for academic research in the physical sciences. The use of these techniques in transcontinentally distributed, interactive experimentation has been shown to be effective and stable and the analyses of the data find parallels in the behavioral sciences. The authors relate their decade and a half experience in implementing high performance computing hardware, software and user inter-face architectures. These have enabled heretofore unachievable results. They focus on three advances: the use of general purpose graphics processing units as computing accelerators, the efficiencies derived from implementing interest managed routers in distributed systems, and the benefits of effective data management for the voluminous information

A Common Component-based Software Architecture For Military And Commercial Pc-based Virtual Simulation

Commercially available military-themed virtual simulations have been developed and sold for entertainment since the beginning of the personal computing era. There exists an intense interest by various branches of the military to leverage the technological advances of the personal computing and video game industries to provide low cost military training. By nature of the content of the commercial military-themed virtual simulations, a large overlap has grown between the interests, resources, standards, and technology of the computer entertainment industry and military training branches. This research attempts to identify these commonalities with the purpose of systematically designing and evaluating a common component-based software architecture that could be used to implement a framework for developing content for both commercial and military virtual simulation software applications

Applying Gaming Technology to Tomahawk Mission Planning and Training

Fall 2005 Simulation Interoperability Workshop, Paper Number 4 & Presentation.Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization (SISO) SIW Conference PaperOver the past decade the computer gaming industry has not only generated its own multi-billion dollar section of the entertainment industry, but it has also made significant inroads into the military market, especially in training and simulation, starting with Marine Doom and continuing up to today ’s Full Spectrum Command and America ’s Army. This paper describes a Navy-funded research project that uses gaming technology for not only training, but also as an operational decision aid for the Tactical Tomahawk Weapon Control System (TTWCS). The research is aimed at adapting game engine technology to predict and simulate the motion of ground target vehicles (e.g. SCUD Launchers) through their local terrain over a given period of time, then use the associated rendering capabilities to provide realistic 3D views. The paper presents an overview of the TTWCS mission and how it will benefit from specific advances in gaming technology, especially in the areas of artificial intelligence, path finding, and physics. It discusses the current state of the project using existing commercial gaming technology and the future plans for adapting and expanding the open source game engine technology of the Delta3D project underway at the MOVES Institute at the Naval Postgraduate School