The Global Risks Report 2016, 11th Edition

Now in its 11th edition, The Global Risks Report 2016 draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade. The year 2016 marks a forceful departure from past findings, as the risks about which the Report has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies. Warming climate is likely to raise this year's temperature to 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era, 60 million people, equivalent to the world's 24th largest country and largest number in recent history, are forcibly displaced, and crimes in cyberspace cost the global economy an estimated US$445 billion, higher than many economies' national incomes. In this context, the Reportcalls for action to build resilience – the "resilience imperative" – and identifies practical examples of how it could be done.The Report also steps back and explores how emerging global risks and major trends, such as climate change, the rise of cyber dependence and income and wealth disparity are impacting already-strained societies by highlighting three clusters of risks as Risks in Focus. As resilience building is helped by the ability to analyse global risks from the perspective of specific stakeholders, the Report also analyses the significance of global risks to the business community at a regional and country-level

Now for the long term: the report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

This report is the product of a year long process of research and debate undertaken by a group of eminent leaders on the successes and failures in addressing global challenges over recent decades. As the world slowly emerges from the devastating Financial Crisis, it is time to reflect on the lessons of this turbulent period and think afresh about how to prevent future crises. The Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations focuses on the increasing short-termism of modern politics and our collective inability to break the gridlock which undermines attempts to address the biggest challenges that will shape our future. In Now for the Long Term, they urge decision-makers to overcome their pressing daily preoccupations to tackle problems that will determine the lives of today’s and tomorrow’s generations. Dr James Martin, the founder of the Oxford Martin School, highlights that humanity is at a crossroads. This could be our best century ever, or our worst. The outcome will depend on our ability to understand and harness the extraordinary opportunities as well as manage the unprecedented uncertainties and risks.   The report identifies what these challenges are, explains how progress can be made, and provides practical recommendations. The Commission outlines an agenda for the long term. The case for action is built in three parts. The first, Possible Futures , identifies the key drivers of change and considers how we may address the challenges that will dominate this century. Next, in Responsible Futures, the Commission draws inspiration from previous examples of where impediments to action have been overcome, and lessons from where progress has been stalled. We then consider the characteristics of our current national and global society that frustrate progress. The final part, Practical Futures, sets out the principles for action and offers illustrative recommendations which show how we can build a sustainable, inclusive and resilient future for all. &nbsp

Trade in the balance: reconciling trade and climate policy: report of the Working Group on Trade, Investment, and Climate Policy

This repository item contains a report published by the Working Group on Trade, Investment, and Climate Policy at The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at Boston University, and the Global Economic Governance Initiative at Boston University.This report outlines the general tensions between the trade and investment regime and climate policy, and outlines a framework toward making trade and investment rules more climate friendly. Members of the working group have contributed short pieces addressing a range of issues related to the intersection of trade and climate policy. The first two are by natural scientists. Anthony Janetos discusses the need to address the effects of international trade on efforts to limit the increase in global annual temperature to no more than 2oC over preindustrial levels. James J. Corbett examines the failure of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) to adequately address the environmental implications of shipping and maritime transport. The next two pieces are by economists who examine economic aspects of the trade-climate linkage. Irene Monasterolo and Marco Raberto discuss the potential impacts of including fossil fuel subsidies reduction under the TTIP. Frank Ackerman explores the economic costs of efforts to promote convergence of regulatory standards between the United States and the European Union under the TTIP. The following two contributions are by legal scholars. Brooke Güven and Lise Johnson explore the potential for international investment treaties to redirect investment flows to support climate change mitigation and adaptation, particularly with regard to China and India. Matt Porterfield provides an overview of the ways in which both existing and proposed trade and investment agreements could have either “climate positive” or “climate negative” effects on mitigation policies. The final article is by Tao Hu, a former WTO trade and environment expert advisor for China and currently at the World Wildlife Fund, arguing that the definition of environmental goods and services’ under the WTO negotiations needs to be expanded to better incorporate climate change

Shale gas and hydraulic fracturing in South Africa: towards a petroleum legal framework that provides for innovative technologies that support energy security of supply and mitigate climate change

It is estimated that South Africa contains vast amounts of shale gas. Meanwhile, the country relies heavily on coal as a primary energy source, as a result, it ranks amongst the highest carbon dioxide emitting countries globally, therefore is a significant contributor to climate change. Climate change is a cause for global concern, if not mitigated it will cause more severe devastation to societies worldwide. The exploitation of shale gas in South Africa will require the use of hydraulic fracturing, a technology that has generated controversy globally. The country however does not have an effective legal framework to regulate the exploration and production of shale gas using this technology. This thesis investigates whether South Africa's petroleum legal framework provides adequately for the protection of the environment against the risks posed by shale gas development. It posits that with a petroleum legal framework premised on avoiding, mitigating, and remediating environmental damage, shale gas could be developed in an environmentally sensible manner in South Africa, to enhance energy security of supply while reducing the country's carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere. The assessment employs the comparative legal research methodology and uses the prevention principle (avoidance), precautionary principle (mitigation), and polluter pays principle (remediation) as comparative themes. The comparative jurisdictions are South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Canada. The United Kingdom and Canada are more mature petroleum provinces/jurisdictions, therefore, have relatively advanced legal frameworks for petroleum extraction. The study finds that these principles are already embedded in the South African environmental legal framework. Therefore, the appropriate petroleum legal framework to guide shale gas development in South Africa would be one that provides for the rigorous application of these principles, in an integrated and complementary manner, with close monitoring and enforcement. The capacity of the relevant regulatory agencies will have to be enhanced to ensure effective compliance monitoring and enforcement

Banning the bulb: institutional evolution and the phased ban of incandescent lighting in Germany

Much academic attention has been directed at analysing energy efficiency investments through the lens of ‘behavioural failure’. These studies have challenged the neoclassical framing of regulation which emphasises the efficiency benefits of price based policy, underpinned by the notion of rational individual self-mastery. The increasing use of a regulatory ban on electric lamps in many countries is one of the most recent and high profile flash points in this dialectic of ‘freedom-versus-the-state’ in the public policy discourse. This paper interrogates this debate through a study of electric lamp diffusion in Germany. It is argued that neoclassical theory and equilibrium analysis is inadequate as a tool for policy analysis as it takes the formation of market institutions, such as existing regulations, for granted. Further still, it may be prone to encourage idealistic debates around such grand narratives which may in practice simply serve those who benefit most from the status quo. Instead we argue for an evolutionary approach which we suggest offers a more pragmatic framing tool which focuses on the formation of market institutions in light of shifting social norms and political goals—in our case, progress towards energy efficiency and environmental goals

Identifying the science and technology dimensions of emerging public policy issues through horizon scanning

Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security

Quantifying Potential Energy Efficiency Gain in Green Cellular Wireless Networks

Conventional cellular wireless networks were designed with the purpose of providing high throughput for the user and high capacity for the service provider, without any provisions of energy efficiency. As a result, these networks have an enormous Carbon footprint. In this paper, we describe the sources of the inefficiencies in such networks. First we present results of the studies on how much Carbon footprint such networks generate. We also discuss how much more mobile traffic is expected to increase so that this Carbon footprint will even increase tremendously more. We then discuss specific sources of inefficiency and potential sources of improvement at the physical layer as well as at higher layers of the communication protocol hierarchy. In particular, considering that most of the energy inefficiency in cellular wireless networks is at the base stations, we discuss multi-tier networks and point to the potential of exploiting mobility patterns in order to use base station energy judiciously. We then investigate potential methods to reduce this inefficiency and quantify their individual contributions. By a consideration of the combination of all potential gains, we conclude that an improvement in energy consumption in cellular wireless networks by two orders of magnitude, or even more, is possible.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1210.843

Putting A Price On Carbon: A Handbook for U.S. Policymakers

This Handbook provides an overview of carbon pricing -- the types of decisions that need to be made in designing a program (including the political decisions about the use of revenue) and the expected economic impacts of alternative approaches. We conducted a thorough review of the literature, selecting a broad array of well-regarded and highly cited studies that represent a range of viewpoints. We expect this Handbook to be useful in the public debate in the United States on whether, how, and when to implement a national carbon price