Comparing the structural uncertainty and uncertainty management in four common Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) model software packages

Research on the uncertainty of Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) models is still limited. Through this paper, we aim to globally characterize the structural uncertainty of four common software packages (CA_Markov, Dinamica EGO, Land Change Modeler, Metronamica) and analyse the options that they offer for uncertainty management. The models have been compared qualitatively, based on their structures and tools, and quantitatively, through a study case for the city of Cape Town. Results proved how each model conceptualised the modelled system in a different way, which led to different outputs. Statistical or automatic approaches did not provide higher repeatability or validation scores than user-driven approaches. The available options for uncertainty management vary depending on the model. Communication of uncertainties is poor across all models.Spanish GovernmentEuropean Commission INCERTIMAPS PGC2018-100770-B-100Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and the European Social Fund [Ayudas para contratos predoctorales para la formacion de doctores 2014]University of Granada [Contratos Puente 2018]Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation [Ayudas para contratos Juan de la Cierva-for-macion] 2019-FJC2019-040043University of Cape Town (Centre for Transport Studies

Inductive pattern-based land use/cover change models: A comparison of four software packages

International audienceLand use/cover change (LUCC), as an important factor in global change, is a topic that has recently received considerable attention in the prospective modeling domain. There are many approaches and software packages for modeling LUCC, many of them are empirical approaches based on past LUCC such as CLUES , DINAMICA EGO, CA_MARKOV and Land Change Modeler (both available in IDRISI). This study reviews the possibilities and the limits of these four modeling software packages. First, a revision of the methods and tools available for each model was performed, taking into account how the models carry out the different procedures involved in the modeling process: quantity of change estimate, change potential evaluation, spatial allocation of change, reproduction of temporal and spatial patterns, model evaluation and advanced modeling options. Additional considerations, such as flexibility and user friendliness were also taken into account. Then, the four models were applied to a virtual case study to illustrate the previous descriptions with a typical LUCC scenario that consists of four processes of change (conversion of forest to two different types of crops, crop abandonment and urban sprawl) that follow different spatial patterns and are conditioned by different drivers. The outputs were compared to assess the quantity of change estimates, the change potential and the simulated prospective maps. Finally, we discussed some basic criteria to define a " good " model

La ‘vista in prima persona’ tra esperienza reale e fruizione digitale

Il contributo espone i termini di una riflessione critica sul tema della ’vista in prima persona‘ così come definita nell’ambito delle rappresentazioni tridimensionali digitali virtuali interattive. Il tema gemmato da considerazioni riguardanti la meraviglia percettiva, comunicativa, illusoria e narrativa, propria delle prospettive architettoniche, analizza alcuni scenari della fruizione prospettica digitale, confrontandoli con le caratteristiche fondamentali dell’esperienza naturale del movimento e della visione nel mondo reale. L’obiettivo cui mira la ricerca, oggetto di questo contributo, è di individuare alcune macroscopiche criticità e lacune funzionali, oggi singolarmente trascurate, sulle quali sia possibile intervenire qualitativamente per perfezionare l’esperienza percettiva e, per conseguenza, l’attività conoscitiva dello spazio virtuale digitale così come dell’informazione in esso contenuto.The contribution exposes the terms of a critical reflection on the theme of “first person view” as defined in the context of interactive virtual digital three-dimensional representations. The theme, gemmed by considerations regarding the perceptive, communicative, illusory and narrative wonder, typical of architectural perspectives, analyzes some scenarios of digital perspective use, comparing them with the fundamental characteristics of the natural experience of movement and vision in the real world. The aim of the research object of this contribution is to identify some macroscopic criticalities and functional gaps, today individually overlooked, on which it is possible to intervene qua- litatively to perfect the perceptual experience and, consequently, the cognitive activity of the digital virtual space , as well as the information it contains

Technological Advances in Wireless Sensor Network Systems for Urban Drainage Monitoring

Urban drainages are important for evacuation of waste water in cities. It helps for the smooth running of the daily activities in the city and prevents proliferation of diseases. Drainage systems and construction methods have not evolved much in the past years. Due to population growth, urbanization and climatic changes, our urban drainages have become inefficient. Localized heavy rainfall causes overflow of drains that lead to floods resulting in major infrastructural damages and loss of lives. Obstruction due to solid waste prevents effective waste water evacuation. In this paper existing drainage monitoring systems are identified and their monitoring methods and technologies are analysed. Current drainage water monitoring methods such as the Rational method, the Modified Rational method, the SCS Runoff method, the Saint-Venant equation and the Manning’s equation are not reliable and only provide estimated value for peak discharge and mean water velocity. Wireless sensor network systems for monitoring drains and rivers in different regions such as Birmingham, Brazil, Philippines and Mississippi are thoroughly discussed. Wireless sensors and microprocessor platforms that may be used for the urban drainage monitoring are evaluated. A systematic review of the research challenges for real-time monitoring of urban drainages is carried out. Furthermore, possible solutions that use advanced sensor technologies to detect overflow and obstruction in urban drainages are analysed. Indeed this paper provides a comprehensive assessment of technological advances in urban drainage monitoring systems. Keywords: wireless sensor networks, urban drainage monitoring, water flow monitoring, overflow detection, obstruction detectio

“Ok Google, vorrei parlare con la poetessa Saffo" intelligenza artificiale, assistenti virtuali e didattica della letteratura

In the era of automation conversational interfaces have come to play a pervasive role in many sectors. From chatbots that support online shopping experiences, tovirtual assistants used for therapy to dialogue systems that enable transactions within any messaging service. Some of these interfaces, ever-present and only a touch of a finger away, simplify daily tasks and engage the user thanks to human-like traits and personalities: the average user is growing increasingly familiar with the voices of Alexa, Siri, Google Assistant and Cortana. Conversational interfaces can also redefine the way we experience education. They can support teachers, guide students through the learning process and constitute a bridge to technological innovations that are still struggling to find their right place in school curricula. A virtual assistant can transform the approach to the study of literature, replacing the traditional fruition of texts with a narrative journey that is personalized and never the same. Conversation with a canonical writer or with a literary character is a versatile means of building and processing knowledge, an opportunity to establish a relationship with the past marked by unexpected empathic implications. This paper introduces a series of methodologies and teaching strategies that can enable this process. These include cognitive apprenticeship, discovery learning and digital authentic learning. The reader will also approach the field of AI to learn how to create an alter ego of Sappho using Dialogflow. Le interfacce conversazionali hanno acquisito un ruolo pervasivo in molti settori. Sono i chatbot che supportano nell’acquisto di un prodotto, gli assistenti virtuali utilizzati a scopo terapeutico o i sistemi di dialogo che consentono di effettuaretransazioni all’interno di un qualsiasi servizio di messaggistica. Alcune, sempre a portata di mano, rendono le attività quotidiane più semplici e coinvolgono l’utente grazie alla propria personalità e a connotati antropomorfi : le voci di Alexa, Siri, Google Assistant e Cortana sono ormai familiari. Le interfacce conversazionali si rivelano in grado di ridefinire anche l’esperienza educativa. Offrono supporto al docente, accompagnano lo studente nel processo di apprendimento e consentono di confrontarsi con innovazioni tecnologiche che ancora faticano a trovare il giusto spazio nel curricolo scolastico. Un assistente virtuale può cambiare il modo di approcciarsi allo studio della letteratura, trasformando la tradizionale fruizione dei contenuti disciplinari in un itinerario narrativo sempre diverso e personalizzato. La conversazione con un autore del canone letterario o con il personaggio di un’opera è un mezzo versatile per costruire ed elaborare la conoscenza, un’occasione per stabilire una relazione con il passato connotata da inaspettati risvolti empatici. In queste pagine il lettore avrà modo di conoscere una serie di metodologie e strategie didattiche utili per abilitare tale processo, tra le quali l’apprendistato cognitivo, l’apprendimento per scoperta e il digital authentic learning. Imparerà, inoltre, a realizzare un alter ego della poetessa Saffo muovendo i primi passi nel campo dell’AI grazie alla piattaforma Dialogflow

Cenários futuros de desmatamento na Floresta Nacional do Jamanxim-PA

As áreas protegidas foram criadas para a proteção e conservação da fauna e flora. Analisar suas dinâmicas socioambientais é essencial para a manutenção dos ecossistemas. O objetivo deste artigo é simular trajetórias de desmatamento na Floresta Nacional do Jamanxim a partir de modelos matemáticos, e propor cenários futuros até o ano de 2030, com base na análise de uso e cobertura da terra. Para tanto, realizou-se o processamento das imagens de satélite para análise das mudanças de uso e cobertura da terra, ao qual aplicou-se o método de classificação supervisionada, através do algoritmo de Máxima Verossimilhança; e processamento das variáveis independentes. Na modelagem espacial através do software DINAMICA EGO, utilizou-se o modelo LUCC. Observou-se que houve redução de área de 112,51 km² (0,87%) de floresta primária, e aumento do desmatamento com área de 393,53 km², equivalente a 3% de área desmatada. Obteve-se um cenário no qual a floresta primária foi convertida para desmatamento (0,28%) com alta probabilidade de transição de floresta primária para mosaico de ocupações e de exploração florestal para mosaico de ocupações ao norte e ao sul da FLONA do Jamanxim. Projeta-se a perda de 198,79 km² (1,52%) de floresta primária, e aumento de desmatamento de 155,20 km² até o ano de 2030. O mapa resultante deste cenário pode apoiar ações de políticas públicas, por meio da análise de impactos e leis, e identificação de áreas prioritárias para ação governamental. Em conjunto com os planos de comando, controle e monitoramento, é possível orientar o desenvolvimento socioambiental, econômico e cultural nesta Unidade de Conservação (UC), para manutenção e conservação da biodiversidade

Dinámica, modelización y servicios ecosistémicos del paisaje. Metodología para el análisis de la franja costera del Mediterráneo occidental

El análisis y la dinámica de los paisajes a lo largo del tiempo y el espacio es esencial para la caracterización, ordenación y gestión de los paisajes actuales. Los paisajes, entendidos en su amplia escala espacial y temporal, son una expresión del trabajo conjunto de la naturaleza y el ser humano y por tanto un recurso territorial, un patrimonio y una señal de identidad, que necesita atención, protección y gestión. En el Convenio Europeo del Paisaje se institucionaliza el interés y el derecho al paisaje, y se insta a que los estados y regiones firmantes articulen políticas de paisaje en el marco de la ordenación territorial. Políticas que se operativizan mediante la identificación, análisis y caracterización de los paisajes presentes, así; como de sus dinámicas y los factores que contribuyen al cambio.Este conocimiento es la base sobre la que se fundamenta la toma de decisiones en la intervención en el territorio; en la manera de proteger, de ordenar o de gestionar los paisajes y en el modo de plantear el planeamiento. Para apoyar esa toma de decisiones se necesita disponer de un conocimiento profundo de los componentes, procesos, relaciones e interpretaciones que explican el carácter de cada paisaje. Es necesario identificar cuáles son los tipos de paisaje y las unidades de paisaje; conocer la dinámica histórica y además, disponer de un modelo geoespacial que nos permita generar los escenarios futuros según las diferentes decisiones previstas. Esta dinámica espacio-temporal, junto con los escenarios de futuro previstos influyen decisivamente sobre el capital natural y cultural de un territorio. En este sentido, la dinámica de los paisajes genera cambios en los servicios ecosistémicos y en el sentido de lugar, que es necesario evaluar. Las áreas periurbanas de la franja litoral del Mediterráneo occidental han experimentado una fuerte transformación, debido a la histórica e intensa ocupación humana del litoral. El objetivo de este trabajo es proponer una metodología que explique la transformación del paisaje en espacios litorales, tanto en su dinámica histórica como los posibles escenarios de futuro. Además, se pretende evaluar la influencia del cambio en el paisaje sobre los servicios ecosistémicos, tomando como áreas de estudio el municipio de Castelló de la Plana y el Área Metropolitana de Valencia. La finalidad es identificar y comprender la manera en que la sociedad se ha apropiado y ha ocupado la franja litoral, generando unas nuevas dinámicas territoriales y jerarquías espaciales. La investigación busca desarrollar la metodología y las técnicas de análisis geográfico, que permitan explicitar los elementos motores en la evolución del paisaje, su transformación y las consecuencias sobre los servicios ecosistémicos.Landscape is a human construction in continuous process of change. The methodology proposed to analyse the landscape dynamics is based on landscape diachronic study. Documentary availability (cartography, orthophotography, aerial photography, oblique, etc.), geographic information systems (GIS) and geospatial modelling are the criteria established to mark the different stages of analysis within the time series. For this, land cover information is used to identify landscape patterns for a later stage, incorporating the physiographic, lithological and biometric models to obtain landscape types for the entire time series. With the defined landscape types, landscape units are geographically mapped and delimited with the support of orthophotography, aerial photographs and historical cartographies, as well as historical documentation. This methodological procedure is performed for the two study areas, with two spatial scales (local and supralocal) and two different time scales (30 and 105 years). All this to obtain patterns of change in dynamics of cultural landscape over time and space, both quantitative and spatial variation and fragmentation that allow us to explain the current landscape situation. We obtain a dynamic of constant growth of urban landscape types, a sustained maintenance of the irrigation agricultural types and a marked decrease of the rain feed agricultural types. Finally, forest types have a tendency of slight growth and marsh types, wetland and rice fields disappear into the area A1, Castelló de la Plana, or reduce its importance in the area A2, metropolitan area of Valencia. With all this, we obtain a steady increase in the fragmentation of landscape units. Along with the methodology for obtaining the historical landscape dynamics, it is also proposed to analyse the possible future scenarios according to the decision-making process. To do this, a geospatial model is generated by using the Dinamica EGO software; along stochastic processes, Markov chain and cellular automata (CA). In this model, previously delimited and mapped landscape types and units are used as input data, and spatial variables that induce change as Weight of Evidence. Transition matrices are obtained, variables that induce the change in ranges and coefficients are categorized and geospatial model is calibrated. The various iterations of the calibration are validated for quality, in order to achieve finer calibration that will be used for simulation. Scenario generation is carried out with the geospatial model calibrated by adjusting variables according to the tendency to be analysed. In our research we generate two scenarios, of continuity and change, for area A1, Castelló de la Plana, and a scenario of continuity for area A2, metropolitan area of Valencia. The scenarios modelled trends maintain the landscape dynamics, except for irrigation agricultural types passing from peacekeeping to moderate reduction. As for fragmentation it continues to increase in all scenarios, but on scenario 2, area A1 Castelló de la Plana, its increase is significantly reduced. Finally, we propose a methodology to analyse the evolution of ecosystem services and their relationship with landscape dynamics and its different scenarios. We use two attributes of the soil on the landscape units: soil use capacity and soil water storage capacity. Through these attributes we are evaluating provisioning services, related to food production, and regulation and supporting services, related to water supply, food production and support of ecosystem processes. We obtain a generalized loss of both ecosystem services over the time series and scenarios. This may be limited by taking into consideration ecosystem services and incorporating them into decision-making when generating scenarios

Impact of Forage Conditioner Systems on the Harvesting of Alfalfa

This study analyzed three major brands of conditioner rollers and determined how they performed in drying the forage crop alfalfa. Each type of conditioner roller would cut a wide and narrow windrow. All the windrows were tested and analyzed the same. The study was concluded once the forage was baled

Nature and Pandemic

The article shows how the Covid-19 pandemic is not only a matter associated with nature, but it is an essential topic in order to understand humanity today, because at the beginning of the pandemic it was immediately shown that nature was behind this disaster, because it was, in a certain way, taking revenge on the humans. After all, the very conception of nature that we use today is a human conception, created from the subjectivity of the Self, that goes hand in hand with the modern creation of the nation-state. Nature, nation-state, etc., are creations of the Self and in this way nature is understood as something objective, but at the same time the human subject treats himself as an object. Here lies the very problem, because neither the Self nor the nature behave in an objective way, but both moments are made visible from a dynamic articulation of the movement of one in the other. This vision was part of the conception of the ancient Greeks and by Nietzsche and other current thinkers such as Žižek