A methodology for the selection of new technologies in the aviation industry

The purpose of this report is to present a technology selection methodology to quantify both tangible and intangible benefits of certain technology alternatives within a fuzzy environment. Specifically, it describes an application of the theory of fuzzy sets to hierarchical structural analysis and economic evaluations for utilisation in the industry. The report proposes a complete methodology to accurately select new technologies. A computer based prototype model has been developed to handle the more complex fuzzy calculations. Decision-makers are only required to express their opinions on comparative importance of various factors in linguistic terms rather than exact numerical values. These linguistic variable scales, such as ‘very high’, ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’ and ‘very low’, are then converted into fuzzy numbers, since it becomes more meaningful to quantify a subjective measurement into a range rather than in an exact value. By aggregating the hierarchy, the preferential weight of each alternative technology is found, which is called fuzzy appropriate index. The fuzzy appropriate indices of different technologies are then ranked and preferential ranking orders of technologies are found. From the economic evaluation perspective, a fuzzy cash flow analysis is employed. This deals quantitatively with imprecision or uncertainties, as the cash flows are modelled as triangular fuzzy numbers which represent ‘the most likely possible value’, ‘the most pessimistic value’ and ‘the most optimistic value’. By using this methodology, the ambiguities involved in the assessment data can be effectively represented and processed to assure a more convincing and effective decision- making process when selecting new technologies in which to invest. The prototype model was validated with a case study within the aviation industry that ensured it was properly configured to meet the

The Principles Of Developing A Management Decision Support System For Scientific Employees

Employees engaged in mental work have become the most valuable assets of any organization in the 21st century. The satisfaction of those involved in mental work requires the provision of objectivity and transparency in their decision-making. This, in turn, entails the development of scientifically motivated decision making mechanisms and scientific-methodological approaches to evaluate their performance based on innovative technologies.The main goal of this article is in development of the scientific and methodological framework for the establishment of a decision support system to manage the employees engaged in mental work and operating in uncertainty. In this regard, initially, the question of evaluating the activities of scientific workers is examined, its characteristic features are determined, and the fuzzy relation model is proposed as a multi-criterion issue formed in uncertainty. Taking into consideration the hierarchical structure of the criteria that allows evaluating the activities of scientific workers, a phased solution method based on an additive aggregation method is proposed. In accordance with the methodology, a functional scheme of the decision support system to manage the scientific personnel is developed. The working principle of each block and the interaction of the blocks are described. The rules for the employees\u27 management decisions are shown by referring to the knowledge production model.Based on the proposed methodological approach, the implementation phases of the decision support system for the management of the scientific workers of the Institute of Information Technology of ANAS are described. To evaluate the employees\u27 performance, the tools to collect initial information, evaluate the system of criteria, define their importance coefficients and mathematical descriptions are provided. Some results of the system software are presented. The opportunities of the system based on the proposed methodology to support enterprise mangers to make scientifically justified decisions are provided

A new and efficient intelligent collaboration scheme for fashion design

Technology-mediated collaboration process has been extensively studied for over a decade. Most applications with collaboration concepts reported in the literature focus on enhancing efficiency and effectiveness of the decision-making processes in objective and well-structured workflows. However, relatively few previous studies have investigated the applications of collaboration schemes to problems with subjective and unstructured nature. In this paper, we explore a new intelligent collaboration scheme for fashion design which, by nature, relies heavily on human judgment and creativity. Techniques such as multicriteria decision making, fuzzy logic, and artificial neural network (ANN) models are employed. Industrial data sets are used for the analysis. Our experimental results suggest that the proposed scheme exhibits significant improvement over the traditional method in terms of the time–cost effectiveness, and a company interview with design professionals has confirmed its effectiveness and significance

Multi-agent knowledge integration mechanism using particle swarm optimization

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2011 Elsevier B.V.Unstructured group decision-making is burdened with several central difficulties: unifying the knowledge of multiple experts in an unbiased manner and computational inefficiencies. In addition, a proper means of storing such unified knowledge for later use has not yet been established. Storage difficulties stem from of the integration of the logic underlying multiple experts' decision-making processes and the structured quantification of the impact of each opinion on the final product. To address these difficulties, this paper proposes a novel approach called the multiple agent-based knowledge integration mechanism (MAKIM), in which a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is used as a knowledge representation and storage vehicle. In this approach, we use particle swarm optimization (PSO) to adjust causal relationships and causality coefficients from the perspective of global optimization. Once an optimized FCM is constructed an agent based model (ABM) is applied to the inference of the FCM to solve real world problem. The final aggregate knowledge is stored in FCM form and is used to produce proper inference results for other target problems. To test the validity of our approach, we applied MAKIM to a real-world group decision-making problem, an IT project risk assessment, and found MAKIM to be statistically robust.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

Multi crteria decision making and its applications : a literature review

This paper presents current techniques used in Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and their applications. Two basic approaches for MCDM, namely Artificial Intelligence MCDM (AIMCDM) and Classical MCDM (CMCDM) are discussed and investigated. Recent articles from international journals related to MCDM are collected and analyzed to find which approach is more common than the other in MCDM. Also, which area these techniques are applied to. Those articles are appearing in journals for the year 2008 only. This paper provides evidence that currently, both AIMCDM and CMCDM are equally common in MCDM

A framework for the selection of the right nuclear power plant

Civil nuclear reactors are used for the production of electrical energy. In the nuclear industry vendors propose several nuclear reactor designs with a size from 35–45 MWe up to 1600–1700 MWe. The choice of the right design is a multidimensional problem since a utility has to include not only financial factors as levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) and internal rate of return (IRR), but also the so called “external factors” like the required spinning reserve, the impact on local industry and the social acceptability. Therefore it is necessary to balance advantages and disadvantages of each design during the entire life cycle of the plant, usually 40–60 years. In the scientific literature there are several techniques for solving this multidimensional problem. Unfortunately it does not seem possible to apply these methodologies as they are, since the problem is too complex and it is difficult to provide consistent and trustworthy expert judgments. This paper fills the gap, proposing a two-step framework to choosing the best nuclear reactor at the pre-feasibility study phase. The paper shows in detail how to use the methodology, comparing the choice of a small-medium reactor (SMR) with a large reactor (LR), characterised, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (2006), by an electrical output respectively lower and higher than 700 MWe

Evaluating large, high-technology project portfolios using a novel interval-valued Pythagorean fuzzy set framework: An automated crane project case study

© 2019 Elsevier Ltd The contemporary organization relies increasingly on developing large, high technology projects in order to gain local and global competitive advantage. Uncertainty and the complexity of project evaluation requires improved and tailored decision making support systems. A new framework for high technology project portfolio evaluation is introduced. Novel development of an interval-valued Pythagorean fuzzy set (IVPFS) approach is shown to accommodate degrees of membership, non-membership and hesitancy in the evaluation process. Developed methods of linear assignment, IVPFS ranking, IVPFS knowledge index, and IVPFS comparison provide a new framework for group evaluation based on a weighting for each decision expert. The framework is developed as a last aggregation which avoids information loss and introduces a new aggregation process. A novel multi-objective model is then introduced to address project portfolio selection while optimizing the value of the portfolio in terms of resilience (the risk of disruption and delays) and skill utilization (assignment of human resources). The applicability of this framework is demonstrated through a case study in high technology portfolio evaluation. The case study shows that the presented framework can be applied as the core to a high technology evaluation decision support system