An expert system for checking the correctness of memory systems using simulation and metamorphic testing

During the last few years, computer performance has reached a turning point where computing power is no longer the only important concern. This way, the emphasis is shifting from an exclusive focus on the optimisation of the computing system to optimising other systems, like the memory system. Broadly speaking, testing memory systems entails two main challenges: the oracle problem and the reliable test set problem. The former consists in deciding if the outputs of a test suite are correct. The latter refers to providing an appropriate test suite for determining the correctness of the system under test. In this paper we propose an expert system for checking the correctness of memory systems. In order to face these challenges, our proposed system combines two orthogonal techniques – simulation and metamorphic testing – enabling the automatic generation of appropriate test cases and deciding if their outputs are correct. In contrast to conventional expert systems, our system includes a factual database containing the results of previous simulations, and a simulation platform for computing the behaviour of memory systems. The knowledge of the expert is represented in the form of metamorphic relations, which are properties of the analysed system involving multiple inputs and their outputs. Thus, the main contribution of this work is two-fold: a method to automatise the testing process of memory systems, and a novel expert system design focusing on increasing the overall performance of the testing process. To show the applicability of our system, we have performed a thorough evaluation using 500 memory configurations and 4 di erent memory management algorithms, which entailed the execution of more than one million of simulations. The evaluation used mutation testing, injecting faults in the memory management algorithms. The developed expert system was able to detect over 99% of the critical injected faults, hence obtaining very promising results, and outperforming other standard techniques like random testingThis work was supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad, Gobierno de España/FEDER (grant numbers DArDOS, TIN2015-65845-C3-1-R and FAME, RTI2018-093608-B-C31) and the Comunidad de Madrid project FORTE under Grant S2018/TCS-4314. The first author is also supported by the Universidad Complutense de Madrid - Santander Universidades grant (CT17/17-CT18/17

Intelligent fault management for the Space Station active thermal control system

The Thermal Advanced Automation Project (TAAP) approach and architecture is described for automating the Space Station Freedom (SSF) Active Thermal Control System (ATCS). The baseline functionally and advanced automation techniques for Fault Detection, Isolation, and Recovery (FDIR) will be compared and contrasted. Advanced automation techniques such as rule-based systems and model-based reasoning should be utilized to efficiently control, monitor, and diagnose this extremely complex physical system. TAAP is developing advanced FDIR software for use on the SSF thermal control system. The goal of TAAP is to join Knowledge-Based System (KBS) technology, using a combination of rules and model-based reasoning, with conventional monitoring and control software in order to maximize autonomy of the ATCS. TAAP's predecessor was NASA's Thermal Expert System (TEXSYS) project which was the first large real-time expert system to use both extensive rules and model-based reasoning to control and perform FDIR on a large, complex physical system. TEXSYS showed that a method is needed for safely and inexpensively testing all possible faults of the ATCS, particularly those potentially damaging to the hardware, in order to develop a fully capable FDIR system. TAAP therefore includes the development of a high-fidelity simulation of the thermal control system. The simulation provides realistic, dynamic ATCS behavior and fault insertion capability for software testing without hardware related risks or expense. In addition, thermal engineers will gain greater confidence in the KBS FDIR software than was possible prior to this kind of simulation testing. The TAAP KBS will initially be a ground-based extension of the baseline ATCS monitoring and control software and could be migrated on-board as additional computation resources are made available

Would credit scoring work for Islamic finance? A neural network approach

Purpose – The main aim of this paper is to distinguish whether the decision making process of the Islamic financial houses in the UK can be improved through the use of credit scoring modeling techniques as opposed to the currently used judgmental approaches. Subsidiary aims are to identify how scoring models can reclassify accepted applicants who later are considered as having bad credit and how many of the rejected applicants are later considered as having good credit; and highlight significant variables that are crucial in terms of accepting and rejecting applicants which can further aid the decision making process. Design/methodology/approach – A real data-set of 487 applicants are used consisting of 336 accepted credit applications and 151 rejected credit applications make to an Islamic finance house in the UK. In order to build the proposed scoring models, the data-set is divided into training and hold-out sub-set. The training sub-set is used to build the scoring models and the hold-out sub-set is used to test the predictive capabilities of the scoring models.70 percent of the overall applicants will be used for the training sub-set and 30 percent will be used for the testing sub-set. Three statistical modeling techniques namely Discriminant Analysis (DA), Logistic Regression (LR) and Multi-layer Perceptron (MP) neural network are used to build the proposed scoring models. Findings – Our findings reveal that the LR model has the highest Correct Classification (CC) rate in the training sub-set whereas MP outperforms other techniques and has the highest CC rate in the hold-out sub-set. MP also outperforms other techniques in terms of predicting the rejected credit applications and has the lowest Misclassification Cost (MC) above other techniques. In addition, results from MP models show that monthly expenses, age and marital status are identified as the key factors affecting the decision making process. Research limitations/implications – Although our sample is small and restricted to an Islamic Finance house in the UK the results are robust. Future research could consider enlarging the sample in the UK and also internationally allowing for cultural differences to be identified. The results indicate that the scoring models can be of great benefit to Islamic finance houses in regards to their decision making processes of accepting and rejecting new credit applications and thus improve their efficiency and effectiveness. Originality/value –Our contribution is the first to apply credit scoring modeling techniques in Islamic Finance. Also in building a scoring model our application applies a different approach by using accepted and rejected credit applications instead of good and bad credit histories. This identifies opportunity costs of misclassifying credit applications as rejected

Validation of highly reliable, real-time knowledge-based systems

Knowledge-based systems have the potential to greatly increase the capabilities of future aircraft and spacecraft and to significantly reduce support manpower needed for the space station and other space missions. However, a credible validation methodology must be developed before knowledge-based systems can be used for life- or mission-critical applications. Experience with conventional software has shown that the use of good software engineering techniques and static analysis tools can greatly reduce the time needed for testing and simulation of a system. Since exhaustive testing is infeasible, reliability must be built into the software during the design and implementation phases. Unfortunately, many of the software engineering techniques and tools used for conventional software are of little use in the development of knowledge-based systems. Therefore, research at Langley is focused on developing a set of guidelines, methods, and prototype validation tools for building highly reliable, knowledge-based systems. The use of a comprehensive methodology for building highly reliable, knowledge-based systems should significantly decrease the time needed for testing and simulation. A proven record of delivering reliable systems at the beginning of the highly visible testing and simulation phases is crucial to the acceptance of knowledge-based systems in critical applications

Verification issues for rule-based expert systems

Verification and validation of expert systems is very important for the future success of this technology. Software will never be used in non-trivial applications unless the program developers can assure both users and managers that the software is reliable and generally free from error. Therefore, verification and validation of expert systems must be done. The primary hindrance to effective verification and validation is the use of methodologies which do not produce testable requirements. An extension of the flight technique panels used in previous NASA programs should provide both documented requirements and very high levels of verification for expert systems

Financial-distress prediction of Islamic banks using tree-based stochastic techniques

Purpose Financial distress is a socially and economically important problem that affects companies the world over. Having the power to better understand – and hence aid businesses from failing, has the potential to save not only the company, but also potentially prevent economies from sustained downturn. Although Islamic banks constitute a fraction of total banking assets, their importance have been substantially increasing, as their asset growth rate has surpassed that of conventional banks in recent years. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a data set comprising 101 international publicly listed Islamic banks to work on advancing financial distress prediction (FDP) by utilising cutting-edge stochastic models, namely decision trees, stochastic gradient boosting and random forests. The most important variables pertaining to forecasting corporate failure are determined from an initial set of 18 variables. Findings The results indicate that the “Working Capital/Total Assets” ratio is the most crucial variable relating to forecasting financial distress using both the traditional “Altman Z-Score” and the “Altman Z-Score for Service Firms” methods. However, using the “Standardised Profits” method, the “Return on Revenue” ratio was found to be the most important variable. This provides empirical evidence to support the recommendations made by Basel Accords for assessing a bank’s capital risks, specifically in relation to the application to Islamic banking. Originality/value These findings provide a valuable addition to the limited literature surrounding Islamic banking in general, and FDP pertaining to Islamic banking in particular, by showcasing the most pertinent variables in forecasting financial distress so that appropriate proactive actions can be taken. </jats:sec

Knowledge-based system V and V in the Space Station Freedom program

Knowledge Based Systems (KBS's) are expected to be heavily used in the Space Station Freedom Program (SSFP). Although SSFP Verification and Validation (V&V) requirements are based on the latest state-of-the-practice in software engineering technology, they may be insufficient for Knowledge Based Systems (KBS's); it is widely stated that there are differences in both approach and execution between KBS V&V and conventional software V&V. In order to better understand this issue, we have surveyed and/or interviewed developers from sixty expert system projects in order to understand the differences and difficulties in KBS V&V. We have used this survey results to analyze the SSFP V&V requirements for conventional software in order to determine which specific requirements are inappropriate for KBS V&V and why they are inappropriate. Further work will result in a set of recommendations that can be used either as guidelines for applying conventional software V&V requirements to KBS's or as modifications to extend the existing SSFP conventional software V&V requirements to include KBS requirements. The results of this work are significant to many projects, in addition to SSFP, which will involve KBS's

A NASA/RAE cooperation in the development of a real-time knowledge-based autopilot

As part of a US/UK cooperative aeronautical research program, a joint activity between the NASA Dryden Flight Research Facility and the Royal Aerospace Establishment on knowledge-based systems was established. This joint activity is concerned with tools and techniques for the implementation and validation of real-time knowledge-based systems. The proposed next stage of this research is described, in which some of the problems of implementing and validating a knowledge-based autopilot for a generic high-performance aircraft are investigated

Approaches to the verification of rule-based expert systems

Expert systems are a highly useful spinoff of artificial intelligence research. One major stumbling block to extended use of expert systems is the lack of well-defined verification and validation (V and V) methodologies. Since expert systems are computer programs, the definitions of verification and validation from conventional software are applicable. The primary difficulty with expert systems is the use of development methodologies which do not support effective V and V. If proper techniques are used to document requirements, V and V of rule-based expert systems is possible, and may be easier than with conventional code. For NASA applications, the flight technique panels used in previous programs should provide an excellent way to verify the rules used in expert systems. There are, however, some inherent differences in expert systems that will affect V and V considerations