The Development of Dynamic Operational Risk Assessment in Oil/Gas and Chemical Industries

In oil/gas and chemical industries, dynamics is one of the most essential characteristics of any process. Time-dependent response is involved in most steps of both the physical/engineering processes and the equipment performance. The conventional Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is unable to address the time dependent effect in such dynamic processes. In this dissertation, a methodology of Dynamic Operational Risk Assessment (DORA) is developed for operational risk analysis in oil/gas and chemical industries. Given the assumption that the component performance state determines the value of parameters in process dynamics equations, the DORA probabilistic modeling integrates stochastic modeling and process dynamics modeling to evaluate operational risk. The stochastic system-state trajectory is modeled based on the abnormal behavior or failure of the components. For each of the possible system-state trajectories, a process dynamics evaluation is carried out to check whether process variables, e.g., level, flow rate, temperature, pressure, or chemical concentration, remain in their desirable regions. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to calculate the probability of process variable exceeding the safety boundaries. Component testing/inspection intervals and repair time are critical parameters to define the system-state configuration; and play an important role for evaluating the probability of operational failure. Sensitivity analysis is suggested to assist selecting the DORA probabilistic modeling inputs. In this study, probabilistic approach to characterize uncertainty associated with QRA is proposed to analyze data and experiment results in order to enhance the understanding of uncertainty and improve the accuracy of the risk estimation. Different scenarios on an oil/gas separation system were used to demonstrate the application of DORA method, and approaches are proposed for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Case study on a knockout drum in the distillation unit of a refinery process shows that the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimation is reduced through Bayesian updating of the generic reliability information using plant specific real time testing or reliability data. Case study on an oil/gas separator component inspection interval optimization illustrates the cost benefit analysis in DORA framework and how DORA probabilistic modeling can be used as a tool for decision making. DORA not only provides a framework to evaluate the dynamic operational risk in oil/gas and chemical industries, but also guides the process design and optimization of the critical parameters such as component inspection intervals

Modeling and Control of the Automated Radiator Inspection Device

Many of the operations performed at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) are dangerous and repetitive tasks which make them ideal candidates for robotic applications. For one specific application, KSC is currently in the process of designing and constructing a robot called the Automated Radiator Inspection Device (ARID), to inspect the radiator panels on the orbiter. The following aspects of the ARID project are discussed: modeling of the ARID; design of control algorithms; and nonlinear based simulation of the ARID. Recommendations to assist KSC personnel in the successful completion of the ARID project are given

A dynamics-driven approach to precision machines design for micro-manufacturing and its implementation perspectives

Precision machines are essential elements in fabricating high quality micro products or micro features and directly affect the machining accuracy, repeatability and efficiency. There are a number of literatures on the design of industrial machine elements and a couple of precision machines commercially available. However, few researchers have systematically addressed the design of precision machines from the dynamics point of view. In this paper, the design issues of precision machines are presented with particular emphasis on the dynamics aspects as the major factors affecting the performance of the precision machines and machining processes. This paper begins with a brief review of the design principles of precision machines with emphasis on machining dynamics. Then design processes of precision machines are discussed, and followed by a practical modelling and simulation approaches. Two case studies are provided including the design and analysis of a fast tool servo system and a 5-axis bench-top micro-milling machine respectively. The design and analysis used in the two case studies are formulated based on the design methodology and guidelines

Physics-based visual characterization of molecular interaction forces

Molecular simulations are used in many areas of biotechnology, such as drug design and enzyme engineering. Despite the development of automatic computational protocols, analysis of molecular interactions is still a major aspect where human comprehension and intuition are key to accelerate, analyze, and propose modifications to the molecule of interest. Most visualization algorithms help the users by providing an accurate depiction of the spatial arrangement: the atoms involved in inter-molecular contacts. There are few tools that provide visual information on the forces governing molecular docking. However, these tools, commonly restricted to close interaction between atoms, do not consider whole simulation paths, long-range distances and, importantly, do not provide visual cues for a quick and intuitive comprehension of the energy functions (modeling intermolecular interactions) involved. In this paper, we propose visualizations designed to enable the characterization of interaction forces by taking into account several relevant variables such as molecule-ligand distance and the energy function, which is essential to understand binding affinities. We put emphasis on mapping molecular docking paths obtained from Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo simulations, and provide time-dependent visualizations for different energy components and particle resolutions: atoms, groups or residues. The presented visualizations have the potential to support domain experts in a more efficient drug or enzyme design process.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Reactive point processes: A new approach to predicting power failures in underground electrical systems

Reactive point processes (RPPs) are a new statistical model designed for predicting discrete events in time based on past history. RPPs were developed to handle an important problem within the domain of electrical grid reliability: short-term prediction of electrical grid failures ("manhole events"), including outages, fires, explosions and smoking manholes, which can cause threats to public safety and reliability of electrical service in cities. RPPs incorporate self-exciting, self-regulating and saturating components. The self-excitement occurs as a result of a past event, which causes a temporary rise in vulner ability to future events. The self-regulation occurs as a result of an external inspection which temporarily lowers vulnerability to future events. RPPs can saturate when too many events or inspections occur close together, which ensures that the probability of an event stays within a realistic range. Two of the operational challenges for power companies are (i) making continuous-time failure predictions, and (ii) cost/benefit analysis for decision making and proactive maintenance. RPPs are naturally suited for handling both of these challenges. We use the model to predict power-grid failures in Manhattan over a short-term horizon, and to provide a cost/benefit analysis of different proactive maintenance programs.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS789 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Software-Engineering Process Simulation (SEPS) model

The Software Engineering Process Simulation (SEPS) model is described which was developed at JPL. SEPS is a dynamic simulation model of the software project development process. It uses the feedback principles of system dynamics to simulate the dynamic interactions among various software life cycle development activities and management decision making processes. The model is designed to be a planning tool to examine tradeoffs of cost, schedule, and functionality, and to test the implications of different managerial policies on a project's outcome. Furthermore, SEPS will enable software managers to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of software project development and perform postmodern assessments

Understanding recurrent crime as system-immanent collective behavior

Containing the spreading of crime is a major challenge for society. Yet, since thousands of years, no effective strategy has been found to overcome crime. To the contrary, empirical evidence shows that crime is recurrent, a fact that is not captured well by rational choice theories of crime. According to these, strong enough punishment should prevent crime from happening. To gain a better understanding of the relationship between crime and punishment, we consider that the latter requires prior discovery of illicit behavior and study a spatial version of the inspection game. Simulations reveal the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance between ''criminals'', ''inspectors'', and ''ordinary people'' as a consequence of spatial interactions. Such cycles dominate the evolutionary process, in particular when the temptation to commit crime or the cost of inspection are low or moderate. Yet, there are also critical parameter values beyond which cycles cease to exist and the population is dominated either by a stable mixture of criminals and inspectors or one of these two strategies alone. Both continuous and discontinuous phase transitions to different final states are possible, indicating that successful strategies to contain crime can be very much counter-intuitive and complex. Our results demonstrate that spatial interactions are crucial for the evolutionary outcome of the inspection game, and they also reveal why criminal behavior is likely to be recurrent rather than evolving towards an equilibrium with monotonous parameter dependencies.Comment: 9 two-column pages, 5 figures; accepted for publication in PLoS ON