Statistical analysis of longitudinal neuroimage data with linear mixed effects models

Longitudinal neuroimaging (LNI) studies are rapidly becoming more prevalent and growing in size. Today, no standardized computational tools exist for the analysis of LNI data and widely used methods are sub-optimal for the types of data encountered in real-life studies. Linear Mixed Effects (LME) modeling, a mature approach well known in the statistics community, offers a powerful and versatile framework for analyzing real-life LNI data. This article presents the theory behind LME models, contrasts it with other popular approaches in the context of LNI, and is accompanied with an array of computational tools that will be made freely available through FreeSurfer -a popular Magnetic Resonance Image (MRI) analysis software package. Our core contribution is to provide a quantitative empirical evaluation of the performance of LME and competing alternatives popularly used in prior longitudinal structural MRI studies, namely repeated measures ANOVA and the analysis of annualized longitudinal change measures (e.g. atrophy rate). In our experiments, we analyzed MRI-derived longitudinal hippocampal volume and entorhinal cortex thickness measurements from a public dataset consisting of Alzheimer's patients, subjects with mild cognitive impairment and healthy controls. Our results suggest that the LME approach offers superior statistical power in detecting longitudinal group differences

Forecasting the Progression of Alzheimer's Disease Using Neural Networks and a Novel Pre-Processing Algorithm

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common neurodegenerative disease in older people. Despite considerable efforts to find a cure for AD, there is a 99.6% failure rate of clinical trials for AD drugs, likely because AD patients cannot easily be identified at early stages. This project investigated machine learning approaches to predict the clinical state of patients in future years to benefit AD research. Clinical data from 1737 patients was obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database and was processed using the "All-Pairs" technique, a novel methodology created for this project involving the comparison of all possible pairs of temporal data points for each patient. This data was then used to train various machine learning models. Models were evaluated using 7-fold cross-validation on the training dataset and confirmed using data from a separate testing dataset (110 patients). A neural network model was effective (mAUC = 0.866) at predicting the progression of AD on a month-by-month basis, both in patients who were initially cognitively normal and in patients suffering from mild cognitive impairment. Such a model could be used to identify patients at early stages of AD and who are therefore good candidates for clinical trials for AD therapeutics.Comment: 10 pages; updated acknowledgement

The neurocognitive gains of diagnostic reasoning training using simulated interactive veterinary cases

The present longitudinal study ascertained training-associated transformations in the neural underpinnings of diagnostic reasoning, using a simulation game named “Equine Virtual Farm” (EVF). Twenty participants underwent structural, EVF/task-based and resting-state MRI and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) before and after completing their training on diagnosing simulated veterinary cases. Comparing playing veterinarian versus seeing a colorful image across training sessions revealed the transition of brain activity from scientific creativity regions pre-training (left middle frontal and temporal gyrus) to insight problem-solving regions post-training (right cerebellum, middle cingulate and medial superior gyrus and left postcentral gyrus). Further, applying linear mixed-effects modelling on graph centrality metrics revealed the central roles of the creative semantic (inferior frontal, middle frontal and angular gyrus and parahippocampus) and reward systems (orbital gyrus, nucleus accumbens and putamen) in driving pre-training diagnostic reasoning; whereas, regions implicated in inductive reasoning (superior temporal and medial postcentral gyrus and parahippocampus) were the main post-training hubs. Lastly, resting-state and DTI analysis revealed post-training effects within the occipitotemporal semantic processing region. Altogether, these results suggest that simulation-based training transforms diagnostic reasoning in novices from regions implicated in creative semantic processing to regions implicated in improvised rule-based problem-solving

Evaluating the performance of Bayesian and frequentist approaches for longitudinal modeling: application to Alzheimers disease

Linear mixed effects (LME) modelling under both frequentist and Bayesian frameworks can be used to study longitudinal trajectories. We studied the performance of both frameworks on different dataset configurations using hippocampal volumes from longitudinal MRI data across groups-healthy controls (HC), mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients, including subjects that converted from MCI to AD. We started from a big database of 1250 subjects from the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative (ADNI), and we created different reduced datasets simulating real-life situations using a random-removal permutation-based approach. The number of subjects needed to differentiate groups and to detect conversion to AD was 147 and 115 respectively. The Bayesian approach allowed estimating the LME model even with very sparse databases, with high number of missing points, which was not possible with the frequentist approach. Our results indicate that the frequentist approach is computationally simpler, but it fails in modelling data with high number of missing values

Two neuroanatomical signatures in schizophrenia: Expression strengths over the first 2 years of treatment and their relationships to neurodevelopmental compromise and antipsychotic treatment

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Two machine learning derived neuroanatomical signatures were recently described. Signature 1 is associated with widespread grey matter volume reductions and signature 2 with larger basal ganglia and internal capsule volumes. We hypothesized that they represent the neurodevelopmental and treatment-responsive components of schizophrenia respectively. STUDY DESIGN: We assessed the expression strength trajectories of these signatures and evaluated their relationships with indicators of neurodevelopmental compromise and with antipsychotic treatment effects in 83 previously minimally treated individuals with a first episode of a schizophrenia spectrum disorder who received standardized treatment and underwent comprehensive clinical, cognitive and neuroimaging assessments over 24 months. Ninety-six matched healthy case-controls were included. STUDY RESULTS: Linear mixed effect repeated measures models indicated that the patients had stronger expression of signature 1 than controls that remained stable over time and was not related to treatment. Stronger signature 1 expression showed trend associations with lower educational attainment, poorer sensory integration, and worse cognitive performance for working memory, verbal learning and reasoning and problem solving. The most striking finding was that signature 2 expression was similar for patients and controls at baseline but increased significantly with treatment in the patients. Greater increase in signature 2 expression was associated with larger reductions in PANSS total score and increases in BMI and not associated with neurodevelopmental indices. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide supporting evidence for two distinct neuroanatomical signatures representing the neurodevelopmental and treatment-responsive components of schizophrenia

Morphometricity as a measure of the neuroanatomical signature of a trait

Complex physiological and behavioral traits, including neurological and psychiatric disorders, often associate with distributed anatomical variation. This paper introduces a global metric, called morphometricity, as a measure of the anatomical signature of different traits. Morphometricity is defined as the proportion of phenotypic variation that can be explained by macroscopic brain morphology. We estimate morphometricity via a linear mixed-effects model that uses an anatomical similarity matrix computed based on measurements derived from structural brain MRI scans. We examined over 3,800 unique MRI scans from nine large-scale studies to estimate the morphometricity of a range of phenotypes, including clinical diagnoses such as Alzheimer’s disease, and nonclinical traits such as measures of cognition. Our results demonstrate that morphometricity can provide novel insights about the neuroanatomical correlates of a diverse set of traits, revealing associations that might not be detectable through traditional statistical techniques.National Institute for Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (U.S.) (R01EB006758)National Institute for Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (U.S.) (P41EB015896)National Institute for Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (U.S.) (R21EB018907)National Institute for Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (U.S.) (R01EB019956)National Institute on Aging (5R01AG008122)National Institute on Aging (R01AG016495)National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke (U.S.) (R01NS0525851)National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke (U.S.) (R21NS072652)National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke (U.S.) (R01NS070963)National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke (U.S.) (R01NS083534)National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke (U.S.) (5U01NS086625)United States. National Institutes of Health (5U01-MH093765)United States. National Institutes of Health (R01NS083534)United States. National Institutes of Health (R01NS070963)United States. National Institutes of Health (R41AG052246)United States. National Institutes of Health (1K25EB013649-01

Deep gray matter volume loss drives disability worsening in multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Gray matter (GM) atrophy occurs in all multiple sclerosis (MS) phenotypes. We investigated whether there is a spatiotemporal pattern of GM atrophy that is associated with faster disability accumulation in MS. METHODS: We analyzed 3,604 brain high-resolution T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging scans from 1,417 participants: 1,214 MS patients (253 clinically isolated syndrome [CIS], 708 relapsing-remitting [RRMS], 128 secondary-progressive [SPMS], and 125 primary-progressive [PPMS]), over an average follow-up of 2.41 years (standard deviation [SD] = 1.97), and 203 healthy controls (HCs; average follow-up = 1.83 year; SD = 1.77), attending seven European centers. Disability was assessed with the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). We obtained volumes of the deep GM (DGM), temporal, frontal, parietal, occipital and cerebellar GM, brainstem, and cerebral white matter. Hierarchical mixed models assessed annual percentage rate of regional tissue loss and identified regional volumes associated with time-to-EDSS progression. RESULTS: SPMS showed the lowest baseline volumes of cortical GM and DGM. Of all baseline regional volumes, only that of the DGM predicted time-to-EDSS progression (hazard ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.65, 0.82; p < 0.001): for every standard deviation decrease in baseline DGM volume, the risk of presenting a shorter time to EDSS worsening during follow-up increased by 27%. Of all longitudinal measures, DGM showed the fastest annual rate of atrophy, which was faster in SPMS (-1.45%), PPMS (-1.66%), and RRMS (-1.34%) than CIS (-0.88%) and HCs (-0.94%; p < 0.01). The rate of temporal GM atrophy in SPMS (-1.21%) was significantly faster than RRMS (-0.76%), CIS (-0.75%), and HCs (-0.51%). Similarly, the rate of parietal GM atrophy in SPMS (-1.24-%) was faster than CIS (-0.63%) and HCs (-0.23%; all p values <0.05). Only the atrophy rate in DGM in patients was significantly associated with disability accumulation (beta = 0.04; p < 0.001). INTERPRETATION: This large, multicenter and longitudinal study shows that DGM volume loss drives disability accumulation in MS, and that temporal cortical GM shows accelerated atrophy in SPMS than RRMS. The difference in regional GM atrophy development between phenotypes needs to be taken into account when evaluating treatment effect of therapeutic interventions. Ann Neurol 2018;83:210-222

Bayesian model reveals latent atrophy factors with dissociable cognitive trajectories in Alzheimer’s disease

We used a data-driven Bayesian model to automatically identify distinct latent factors of overlapping atrophy patterns from voxelwise structural MRIs of late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia patients. Our approach estimated the extent to which multiple distinct atrophy patterns were expressed within each participant rather than assuming that each participant expressed a single atrophy factor. The model revealed a temporal atrophy factor (medial temporal cortex, hippocampus, and amygdala), a subcortical atrophy factor (striatum, thalamus, and cerebellum), and a cortical atrophy factor (frontal, parietal, lateral temporal, and lateral occipital cortices). To explore the influence of each factor in early AD, atrophy factor compositions were inferred in beta-amyloid–positive (Aβ+) mild cognitively impaired (MCI) and cognitively normal (CN) participants. All three factors were associated with memory decline across the entire clinical spectrum, whereas the cortical factor was associated with executive function decline in Aβ+ MCI participants and AD dementia patients. Direct comparison between factors revealed that the temporal factor showed the strongest association with memory, whereas the cortical factor showed the strongest association with executive function. The subcortical factor was associated with the slowest decline for both memory and executive function compared with temporal and cortical factors. These results suggest that distinct patterns of atrophy influence decline across different cognitive domains. Quantification of this heterogeneity may enable the computation of individual-level predictions relevant for disease monitoring and customized therapies. Factor compositions of participants and code used in this article are publicly available for future research.United States. National Institutes of Health (1K25EB013649-01)United States. National Institutes of Health (1R21AG050122-01A1)United States. National Institutes of Health (P01AG036694)United States. National Institutes of Health (F32AG044054

STGP: Spatio-temporal Gaussian process models for longitudinal neuroimaging data

Longitudinal neuroimaging data plays an important role in mapping the neural developmental profile of major neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative disorders and normal brain. The development of such developmental maps is critical for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of many brain-related diseases. The aim of this paper is to develop a spatio-temporal Gaussian process (STGP) framework to accurately delineate the developmental trajectories of brain structure and function, while achieving better prediction by explicitly incorporating the spatial and temporal features of longitudinal neuroimaging data. Our STGP integrates a functional principal component model (FPCA) and a partition parametric space-time covariance model to capture the medium-to-large and small-to-medium spatio-temporal dependence structures, respectively. We develop a three-stage efficient estimation procedure as well as a predictive method based on a kriging technique. Two key novelties of STGP are that it can efficiently use a small number of parameters to capture complex non-stationary and non-separable spatio-temporal dependence structures and that it can accurately predict spatio-temporal changes. We illustrate STGP using simulated data sets and two real data analyses including longitudinal positron emission tomography data from the Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and longitudinal lateral ventricle surface data from a longitudinal study of early brain development