Bifurcations in the Lozi map

We study the presence in the Lozi map of a type of abrupt order-to-order and order-to-chaos transitions which are mediated by an attractor made of a continuum of neutrally stable limit cycles, all with the same period.Comment: 17 pages, 12 figure

Coexistence of periods in a bisecting bifurcation

The inner structure of the attractor appearing when the Varley-Gradwell-Hassell population model bifurcates from regular to chaotic behaviour is studied. By algebraic and geometric arguments the coexistence of a continuum of neutrally stable limit cycles with different periods in the attractor is explained.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figure

Dynamics of Beliefs and Learning Under aL Processes - The Homogeneous Case

This paper studies a class of models in which agents' expectations influence the actual dynamics while the expectations themselves are the outcome of some learning process. Under the assumptions that agents have homogeneous expectations (or beliefs) and that they update their expectations by least-squares L- and general aL - processes, the dynamic of the resulting expectations and learning schemes are analyzed. It is shown how the dynamics of the system, including stability, instability and bifurcation, are affected by the learning processes. The cobweb model with a simple homogeneous expectation scheme is employed as an example to illustrate the stability results, the various types of bifurcations and the routes to complicated price dynamics.homogeneous beliefs; least-squares l-process; genera; al-process; stability; instability; bifurcation; cobweb model

E&F Chaos: a user friendly software package for nonlinear economic dynamics

The use of nonlinear dynamic models in economics and finance has expanded rapidly in the last two decades. Numerical simulation is crucial in the investigation of nonlinear systems. E&F Chaos is an easy-to-use and freely available software package for simulation of nonlinear dynamic models to investigate stability of steady states and the presence of periodic orbits and chaos by standard numerical simulation techniques such as time series, phase plots, bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponent plots, basin boundary plots and graphical analysis. The package contains many well-known nonlinear models, including applications in economics and finance, and is easy to use for non-specialists. New models and extensions or variations are easy to implement within the software package without the use of a compiler or other software. The software is demonstrated by investigating the dynamical behavior of some simple examples of the familiar cobweb model, including an extension with heterogeneous agents and asynchronous updating of strategies. Simulations with the E&F chaos software quickly provide information about local and global dynamics and easily lead to challenging questions for further mathematical analysis.

Dynamical Systems, Stability, and Chaos

In this expository and resources chapter we review selected aspects of the mathematics of dynamical systems, stability, and chaos, within a historical framework that draws together two threads of its early development: celestial mechanics and control theory, and focussing on qualitative theory. From this perspective we show how concepts of stability enable us to classify dynamical equations and their solutions and connect the key issues of nonlinearity, bifurcation, control, and uncertainty that are common to time-dependent problems in natural and engineered systems. We discuss stability and bifurcations in three simple model problems, and conclude with a survey of recent extensions of stability theory to complex networks.Comment: 28 pages, 10 figures. 26/04/2007: The book title was changed at the last minute. No other changes have been made. Chapter 1 in: J.P. Denier and J.S. Frederiksen (editors), Frontiers in Turbulence and Coherent Structures. World Scientific Singapore 2007 (in press

Recurrent kernel machines : computing with infinite echo state networks

Echo state networks (ESNs) are large, random recurrent neural networks with a single trained linear readout layer. Despite the untrained nature of the recurrent weights, they are capable of performing universal computations on temporal input data, which makes them interesting for both theoretical research and practical applications. The key to their success lies in the fact that the network computes a broad set of nonlinear, spatiotemporal mappings of the input data, on which linear regression or classification can easily be performed. One could consider the reservoir as a spatiotemporal kernel, in which the mapping to a high-dimensional space is computed explicitly. In this letter, we build on this idea and extend the concept of ESNs to infinite-sized recurrent neural networks, which can be considered recursive kernels that subsequently can be used to create recursive support vector machines. We present the theoretical framework, provide several practical examples of recursive kernels, and apply them to typical temporal tasks

Fading Memory Learning in the Cobweb Model with Risk Averse Heterogeneous Producers

This paper studies the dynamics of the traditional cobweb model with risk averse heterogeneous producers who seek to learn the distribution of asset prices using a geometric decay processes (GDP) - the expected mean and variance are estimated as a geometric weighted average of past observations - with either finite or infinite fading memory. With constant absolute risk aversion, the dynamics of the model can be characterized with respect to the length of memory window and the memory decay rate of the learning GPD. The dynamics of such heterogeneous learning processes and capability of producers' learning are discussed. It is found that the learning memory decay rate of the GDP of heterogeneous producers plays a complicated role on the pricing dynamics of the nonlinear cobweb model. In general, an increase of the memory decay rate plays stabilizing role on the local stability of the steady state price when the memory is infinite, but this role becomes less clear when the memory is finite. It shows a double edged effect of the heterogeneity on the dynamics. It is shown that (quasi)periodic solutions and strange (or even chaotic) attractors can be created through Neimark-Hopf bifurcation when the memory is infinite and through flip bifucation as well when the memory is finite.cobweb model; heterogeneity; bounded rationality; geometric decay learning dynamics; bifurcations

Does eductive stability imply evolutionary stability?

This note presents a simple example of a model in which the unique rational expectations (RE)steady state equilibrium is eductively stable in the sense of Guesnerie (2002), but where evolutionary learning, as introduced in Brock and Hommes (1997), does not necessarily converge to the RE steady state price. The example is a Muthian cobweb model where producers have heterogeneous expectations and select forecasting strategies based upon recent realized profits. By means of a simple three types example we show that a locally stable RE fundamental steady state may co-exists with a locally stable two–cycle. We also study the Muthian model with a large number of different producer types, and investigate conditions under which an evolutionary adaptive learning process based upon recent realized profits enforces global convergence to the stable RE steady state and when persistent periodic price fluctuations can arise.